00:00Let's go to Brussels. We're going to talk to our correspondent, Dave Keating, who joins us from there now.
00:04Dave, European leaders, I mean, they're really kind of scrambling, aren't they, to try and stay out of this?
00:11Yeah, I mean, it's been pretty much unanimous that Europeans are clear that they do not want to join this
00:18war.
00:18That was the message coming both from national capitals yesterday and from a meeting of EU foreign ministers here in
00:25Brussels.
00:26We even had one French official saying that joining the war now would be like buying a ticket to the
00:31Titanic after it had already started sinking.
00:35So some very strong words.
00:36We also had the Luxembourgish deputy prime minister yesterday heading back on Trump,
00:43seeming to threaten that the U.S. would pull out of NATO if the European allies don't join in this
00:48war.
00:48He said, we will not be blackmailed. So it was pretty clear.
00:52What was interesting yesterday, as the EU foreign policy chief, Kaya Kallis, entered that meeting of foreign affairs ministers,
00:58she was still floating this idea that maybe this mission that they have in the Red Sea,
01:03an existing mission that protects shipping from attacks from Houthi rebels coming from Yemen,
01:08that maybe that could be expanded.
01:09But that was shot down basically unanimously yesterday in that meeting of foreign ministers.
01:15The Germans in particular were quite clear that mission has a geographic remit that is limited to the Red Sea
01:22and that the rules of engagement can't be changed for this.
01:27So we're really seeing pretty, pretty consistent here.
01:30However, the Europeans have been trying to say, you know, we want to be involved in this
01:34because they're aware that the closure of the Strait of Hormuz hits Europe more than it hits the United States.
01:41That's what Donald Trump was hinting at yesterday.
01:43It's not true when he's saying that it doesn't affect the U.S. at all.
01:46It will affect the U.S. a lot, but it will affect Europe more.
01:50And so he's thinking that he can leverage that, getting the rest of the world involved in opening up the
01:55Strait.
01:55But so far, the rest of the world has said no.
01:57Now, this is really notable because this is the first time that European leaders have said no like this
02:03in such a fashion to the U.S. president since he took office back in January.
02:07The strategy so far here in Europe has really been going along with Trump, trying to keep him happy,
02:14trying to say yes, even when you're actually just saying maybe.
02:18For instance, the Europeans agreeing to the 5% target of GDP spending at NATO when it wasn't really 5%,
02:23it was 3.5%.
02:25Here, this is the first time they're really directly saying no.
02:28Now, the question is whether that will last as European leaders come under increasing pressure
02:34as prices start to skyrocket over the coming days because of the closure of that Strait.
02:39But the Europeans still think that the war ending is the best way to fix that.
02:44And the fear is that if the Europeans say, OK, we're going to send ships over, they'll arrive in two
02:48weeks,
02:48that gives Trump reason not to end the war because he'll think, well, help is on the way,
02:53so I'm just going to keep it going.
02:55So, Dave, they're scrambling to keep out of it, but do you think that could change?
02:59I mean, if this does go on, they may say now that they're going to keep out of it,
03:03but perhaps if the war continues?
03:08Yeah, that's the big question.
03:09And the key ones to watch there are London and Paris.
03:11Those are really the only two significant military powers here in Europe,
03:15and they're the ones that could really make a difference here.
03:17I mean, even if we got a couple of countries sending ships or saying they're going to join
03:22in some kind of coalition of the willing, they don't actually have ships to send.
03:25And the messaging from, let's say, Germany and Italy has been quite clear.
03:29They are not going to send ships.
03:30They don't really have many ships to send.
03:32But the messaging from Paris and London has been a bit more nuanced.
03:36And so Macron and Starmer will be key to watch in the coming days.
03:39We have a summit of EU national leaders happening here on Thursday.
03:43So President Macron will be coming here for that.
03:45I think as he enters that summit Thursday morning, we're really going to be watching his comments
03:49to the press very, very closely to see if he might be wavering on that.
03:54France tends to like to be more interventionist when it comes to these European conflicts.
03:59They already sent vessels over to protect Cyprus from Iranian attacks.
04:03They did that along with Spain, Italy and the UK and Greece.
04:07So it may be that as pressure on these leaders starts to accumulate, as the prices start exploding
04:14as a result of that straight closure, the leaders may be tempted to pull this lever of sending ships
04:20so it looks like they're doing something.
04:22But maybe they have an intention to send ships, but they keep the ships far away.
04:26Again, though, the problem is that that sends a message to Donald Trump that he should continue this war.
04:31So the fear is that saying yes to this would not end the crisis, but actually prolong and extend the
04:39crisis
04:39because it gives Donald Trump and Netanyahu in Israel reason to continue the war
04:44because they think they have support coming.
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