00:01There are plenty of strategic uncertainties, but the real anxieties, I think, in both Canberra
00:07and in Wellington are economic ones. Namely, what happens to the Australian and New Zealand
00:12economies if the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively largely blocked and if oil can't
00:19get through? As we know, both countries remain very reliant on seaborne oil to do many of
00:26the critical things in their economy, without that flow, things become very tricky indeed.
00:30Now, we're not there yet, but obviously the longer this war goes on, the more likely it
00:35is that that supply gets seriously disrupted and that's something that both Australia and
00:40New Zealand are very anxious about indeed. Let's take a listen to what Judith Collins had
00:45to say, speaking earlier today to the ABC. What I do want to see is an end to a conflict
00:54which is actually going to put a lot of stress on the rest of the world where it comes around
00:58those oil supplies. I see stresses in possibly countries like China, for instance, because
01:06they've been getting, what, 13 to 14% of their oil out of Iran. Also a significant chunk out
01:13of Bahrain. So there's Saudi, all these countries, and I think that hopefully there will be a will
01:19to bring this to a conclusion. Whilst the events in Iran and the economic implications
01:25for the global economy will no doubt feature pretty heavily in talks today, I think there'll
01:30also be a sharp focus on the bilateral region and this region as well. In other words, what
01:36do Australia and New Zealand need to do here in the Pacific, in particular in the face of
01:41an increasingly uncertain strategic environment? Now, we've already heard quite a bit about China's
01:47military buildup in the region. This is something Australia and New Zealand are watching very
01:51closely. We saw in November and December last year a second Chinese task group with pretty
01:57formidable firepower making its way through the Pacific region. This task group, of course,
02:02didn't come through the Tasman Sea and didn't come between Australia and New Zealand. It stayed
02:08further north. Nonetheless, it was another demonstration of the way that China can project power into
02:14this region seemingly without breaking a sweat. And one thing that Judith Collins said in her
02:20interview this morning was very reminiscent of what Australia has said. Namely, we are seeing
02:24an enormous military buildup from China without any real clarity, at least publicly from Beijing,
02:30about exactly what that buildup is for. Let's take a listen to what she had to say.
02:36They're doing it for a reason. They haven't shared that with us. But what we do see is that there
02:41is
02:41enormous capability buildup. And the ICBM missile test across the Pacific, what was that, two years ago now?
02:52That was a big wake-up call for a lot of people. But it sounds like there will be some
02:57further
02:57announcements, particularly in the defence space, and particularly when it comes to what's effectively a
03:02level of integration between New Zealand and Australia. Now, this is already happening apace.
03:07You can see a large number increasingly of New Zealand personnel coming over here and vice versa,
03:13not just training together, but actually bedding down into their respective militaries.
03:19Judith Collins, though, said there will be more announcements today about easing that transfer of
03:23personnel and also easing integration so both militaries can use each other's equipment more
03:29effectively as well as communicating more seamlessly. So it seems like that project of integration
03:34is going to continue apace.
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