00:00Let's next talk to Marco Forgione, the Director-General of the Chartered Institute of Export and International Trade.
00:07Marco, welcome back. Good to see you. Just how much is at stake at these talks?
00:13Well, Jamie, these talks could not be taking place at a more precarious time,
00:18either for the global economy, for the relationships between the world's two largest economies,
00:24between the U.S. and China, and indeed, with regards to what's happening with Iran and the impact on global
00:31supply chains.
00:32So these are really key talks in what is quite a febrile background.
00:37I just want to pick up on something our correspondent Li Jianhua was saying in Paris about the Middle East
00:43military action.
00:45I wonder, how does instability in the Middle East impact these talks?
00:52It's going to have a huge impact.
00:54You know, China imports about 13% of its crude oil from Iran.
00:58And obviously, that capability with the attacks on Karg Island in recent days is severely impacted.
01:06And I don't think there will be any expectation in China that a comprehensive deal can be done or will
01:14be done
01:14without addressing the ongoing issue of Iran.
01:18So there are multi-tier elements that are in play now, including the possibility of the state visit by President
01:27Trump to Beijing.
01:29And I think that that will only come about when there is a realistic chance that a deal can be
01:36struck,
01:36and it will have to be a comprehensive deal.
01:39So whether it can happen by the end of this month, I would question.
01:42But certainly, we won't get a deal until the two premiers meet.
01:46And is this, are these talks a process or an event?
01:52It's an event in a process.
01:55This is round six of the negotiations, the conversations.
01:59And you can see from both sides that both are trying to play very cautiously,
02:06keep most of their cards very close to them,
02:08and try to exert maximum pressure on the other to try and secure the terms of their agreements.
02:15How might the outcome of these talks impact the rest of global trade?
02:21Are we able to get any idea on that, or even put a figure on it?
02:26We need to get it done.
02:28The impact of the tariffs is disturbing global trade.
02:32It's upsetting the integrated supply chains.
02:35It's curtailing the ability of businesses to plan, to invest, to grow.
02:40It's damaging for the Chinese manufacturers.
02:44It's damaging for U.S. consumers and for U.S. industries.
02:49So I think we've got to get to an agreed state of collaboration between the U.S. and China
02:56for the rest of the world economy to then sort itself out.
02:59And if we don't, unfortunately, it'll be the EU, it'll be the U.K.
03:05and other trading blocs, trading nations, who will be detrimentally impacted.
03:11What would a good result look like at the end of these talks?
03:16At the end of this talk, a commitment to a further round with a clear sense of what the landing
03:23strip looks like
03:24for an agreement, a sense of a commitment to that state visit for the meeting of the two premiers,
03:31for a deal to be virtually there, ready to go, and then we can move forward with a sense of
03:41understanding,
03:42not just for the world economy, but also with regards to what's going on currently in Iran.
03:46Marco, good to see you. Thanks so much for coming on the programme again.
03:49Marco Forgioni, the Director-General of the Chartered Institute of Export and International Trade.
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