- 9 hours ago
At the India Today Conclave 2026, geopolitical consultant Adelle Nazarian said the ongoing US–Iran war is accelerating shifts in the global order and could strengthen US–India ties while pushing Gulf nations closer to the West. While no one benefits from the war at a human level, she said the conflict is reshaping geopolitical alliances. Nazarian also said many Iranians are frustrated with economic struggles and increasingly supportive of a more democratic, non-religiously aligned leadership, adding that any real change will ultimately depend on the Iranian people and possibly decisions within the IRGC.
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00:00Our guest here is a geopolitical consultant, Adele Nazarian, who is an American of Iranian heritage.
00:08That's how Adele describes herself.
00:11Adele, this is a question that I've asked just about every global thinker that I've interviewed in the last few
00:18days.
00:19As the war enters the third week, who benefits from this war?
00:25Great to be with you. I see the microphone is working. Thank you.
00:28Thank you. Frankly, there is no one that benefits from war on a human level, of course.
00:38But geopolitically, I think this is a tremendous, I guess you can call it a challenge and a competition for
00:48the new global order.
00:50I think who ends up coming out on top, frankly, is going to be the people who are aligned with
00:56the new order, so to speak.
00:57I really feel that it's going to bring about a stronger U.S.-India relationship, and I think it's also going
01:04to result in a strategic realignment of GCC nations towards the West.
01:10So I think that ultimately the West and the middle nations, like India, will end up benefiting from this war.
01:19And I feel at the end of the day, if the people of Iran do decide to take matters into
01:24their own hands, that they will be able to decide a destiny for themselves that is very different than the
01:29current reality that they've been facing for the past four decades.
01:33So as an Iranian-American, what will you be telling the people of Iran?
01:38Of course, you're not inside Iran.
01:40No, not.
01:40The view of those who are inside Iran right now is very different from Iranians abroad or outside.
01:48They seem to be more sympathetic and concerned about this aggression, and Iranians at present are of the opinion that
01:58they must back Mushtabah Khamenei.
02:00So as Iranian who's outside, what are your views?
02:05Absolutely.
02:06So as an American of Iranian heritage, I've never been to Iran.
02:11I speak the language fluently, and I'm very proud of my culture, my Persian culture and heritage.
02:16I have been speaking with people who are inside of Iran very frequently, and I have been seeing a very
02:22big mix.
02:23Frankly, it depends on who you're speaking to.
02:25What I've been hearing and what I've been seeing from the Iranian diaspora in the United States, throughout Europe, about
02:32other parts of the GCC nations,
02:34they are actually supportive of having a more democratic, different, non-religiously aligned leadership in their nation, but ultimately rest
02:47in their own hands.
02:48I think the majority of people there are tired of struggling, is what I've been hearing.
02:53People who were in the top 1% previously, who over the past decade in particular, have been struggling to
03:02be able to support themselves and their families.
03:04Their businesses have been confiscated.
03:07I think this is the trend.
03:08I know sanctions haven't been helpful either, but we've come to a breaking point now, where America has constantly said
03:17this.
03:18It's up to the Iranian people to decide their destiny.
03:20And I don't frankly think that any kind of true effective change can happen without having some kind of intervention.
03:29And that's why I feel it may end up being up to the current governance structure within, let's say, the
03:35IRGC ranks to actually decide,
03:38are they going to be on the side of a continuity of what's been taking place for the past 47
03:44years,
03:45or is it going to be on the side of the people more and end up turning?
03:48So I think Iranians are, A, looking for an end to this conflict, which I completely respect and hope that
03:58we all see an end to this conflict very soon.
04:01But I think what I've been hearing is a very different sentiment, frankly, that they do want change.
04:07The change has to come from within.
04:10100%.
04:10It cannot be imposed on the people of Iran.
04:12That's right.
04:13I think we saw in 79 the grave mistake that President Jimmy Carter, the late Jimmy Carter made.
04:21And Iran has been paying the price ever since.
04:25And I think that the global order has also seen a very dramatic shift in its security apparatus
04:30and the way that global security has shaped ever since that decision was made to remove the late Shavran.
04:36That said, I don't believe that an outside leader will end up going to Iran and end up being elected
04:44as their new leader.
04:45I don't personally see that scenario taking hold.
04:49I think, you know, the crown prince has been very effective outside of Iran,
04:52because I just mentioned the Shah, of rallying the people inside Iran,
04:56and then also the diaspora community within the West and the Arab nations, also Arab world,
05:04have been heavily supportive of him.
05:06But I just don't personally see, with much respect to him as well,
05:09I don't personally see any kind of scenario taking place where he actually ends up being the de facto leader
05:16in Iran.
05:18Iran has been one of the oldest civilizations.
05:21But why is it that this civilization did not have a leverage over the brother nations,
05:31largely the nations around it, Saudi Arabia, Qatar,
05:36and these countries opened up for U.S. and Israel?
05:41That's really an ideological question that has to do with, unfortunately,
05:49battling factions internally within the Muslim order,
05:53the Shia-Sunni kind of, you know, frictions that occur at a more, let's say,
05:59human and geopolitical level, which is also unfortunate,
06:03because I think if you're of one faith, you should be able to be unified as well.
06:07But I think the difference also is that
06:13Iran culturally, historically,
06:16is a far cry today from what it was back in the days of Cyrus the Great,
06:22back in the days of, you know, prior to, let's say,
06:26the influence that it's been having,
06:30changing its name to,
06:31I will say this and I've always said this,
06:33I think nations that present their identity and name with a religious identity along with it
06:40rarely survive over time.
06:42You can't have an Islamic Republic of Iran.
06:45You can't have an Islamic Republic of Pakistan
06:47and expect for it to last, you know, forever.
06:51I think the world is trending more towards,
06:54and especially the Iranian people, frankly,
06:55they are really more,
06:58they're less religiously motivated
07:02and more secular.
07:04I think many of them believe in God.
07:06But I think that's ultimately what's going to determine a nation's survival,
07:10democratic values,
07:12and liberal order, so to speak.
07:14And that runs counter to what is currently taking place there.
07:17So the GCEA.
07:18Yeah.
07:18So in the opening comment,
07:20you said that in the next few years,
07:23we'll be seeing some kind of strategic realignment of GCC.
07:27So will this war lead to birth of a new West Asian order?
07:34New West Asian model?
07:37I think this was inevitable.
07:40I think that I have to first of all commend Prime Minister Narendra Modi
07:45for his handling of the geopolitical situation for this great nation,
07:52which is a strong U.S. ally and will continue to be
07:55and continue getting stronger.
07:57He's the only person that can call up Trump,
08:02President Trump, Putin, Zelensky, Xi Jinping,
08:06Pesashkian,
08:07and literally moderate between everyone.
08:10So I think this shifting order is going to see a realignment of,
08:14as I mentioned before, the GCC's nations.
08:16I think Bahrain, Kuwait, the UAE,
08:20they were all attacked by their regional, you know, neighbor, Iran.
08:24And I think that we just saw it yesterday, was it,
08:27that the UAE has shut down the Iranian hospital,
08:30which, frankly, I have to tell you,
08:33is probably one of the best hospitals in the UAE.
08:35The doctors are at top quality.
08:37But this is the result of war.
08:39It's recalled it's all Iranians to leave the country.
08:42And I think that this is an indication
08:46that you can't attack your allies or neighbors
08:48and expect to be immune from it.
08:51So I think Iran is going to be increasingly isolating itself
08:54in its current leadership format
08:56unless there is an effective change.
08:58So I do see the GCC nations aligning more towards the West
09:02and to India, frankly.
09:04As an American here,
09:08did the West misread the larger fallout of the war?
09:15Mislead the larger fallout?
09:16Yes.
09:17What do you mean by that, if I may ask?
09:19In the sense that the reaction that will come in from Iran,
09:24this is way beyond the 12-day war.
09:28I don't think anything that the U.S. said was misleading.
09:31I think people have been questioning whether President Trump
09:34and the administration had a plan going into this.
09:38And I think there is a plan,
09:40but I don't think that the plan was regime change,
09:43to be honest with you.
09:43I think that the plan was to strike what was perceived
09:48as Western and geopolitical threats, you know, positions.
09:53Then why did Donald Trump say that he wanted to ensure
09:56that whosoever leads Iran is personally chosen by him?
10:00So if it was not about regime change,
10:02then why did he reiterate it?
10:04I'm not in the President's head,
10:05but I'm certain that whatever he's saying has a purpose behind it.
10:10But I don't think that there was any kind of misleading.
10:12I think the media in general,
10:14you know, I always ask this question,
10:16what were the numbers really coming out of Iran?
10:19Was it the 3,000, the 10,000 people
10:22that the media has been reporting,
10:23or was it 60,000 people who were massacred leading up to it?
10:28You know, what's the truth?
10:30So I think that, you know,
10:33we have to look at what's being disseminated by the media as well.
10:37And of course, it's the media's job to question these things.
10:40But I think that...
10:41But the media is reporting what's happening in Iran.
10:43I mean, the fact that children, young girls,
10:47young students have been killed is a reality of it.
10:50It's horrific that any member of society,
10:53especially children, are killed.
10:56And I don't know, to be frank with you,
10:58what's the reality with the situation.
11:00I think there's been investigations into it.
11:02But that's not...
11:04It's a horrible, horrible tragedy.
11:06But I don't think the U.S. has been misleading
11:08in terms of what it's put forward.
11:10I think, again, it rests in the hands of the Iranian people,
11:14as it should.
11:17And ultimately, I think that the U.S. is very fortunate
11:21and India is very fortunate
11:24to be able to have that communication channel
11:27and that relationship where in this new global order,
11:31there is going to be, I think a...
11:34It's going to be a less friction-oriented order going forward.
11:39And I know the Cold War is over.
11:41That era is way... It's long gone.
11:43But there's a big, big difference here
11:46in terms of what we're entering,
11:48in that this is a Cold War 2.0, if you want to call it that.
11:50But previously, it was boots on the ground.
11:54It was on land, by foot, on different fronts strategically.
11:58This is a way different war that's being fought.
12:01It's a battle for ideological civilization.
12:04It's a battle for the Western civilization, frankly, and for the East.
12:09It's a head-to-head.
12:10And I think it's going to be defined by AI, by tech, by military dominance.
12:16And I think that the United States has and will continue to be
12:20the leading military and innovative force technologically in the world.
12:24And I look forward to seeing how that relationship will continue to flourish,
12:29with India especially.
12:31You know, because in this war, one of the biggest concerns have been energy security.
12:36When the realignment, as you see, happen,
12:41will energy be defining the realignment?
12:44Will that be the pivot?
12:45Yes.
12:46The holding block, or are you of the opinion that it will be civilizational connect
12:51that Iran has with most of these countries,
12:55the religious connect that Iran has, that will decide the way forward?
13:02I think that – thank you for that question.
13:04I think energy will absolutely be a defining factor.
13:07I mean, that's why, you know, India has been – Prime Minister Modi has been
13:12receiving phone calls to actually get U.S. oil over through negotiating different channels.
13:19India has still received a phone call from Iran indicating that they will have access
13:23to the State of Hormuz.
13:25If you've noticed also, and this is a major, major point that I think everyone
13:28in the audience should be aware of if you're not already,
13:30is that there has been a strategic shift to diversification of assets,
13:34and there is a shift away from oil and energy in a traditional sense into rare earths.
13:41And I think that's a big part of what this new order and new conflict is about.
13:46It's about the rare earths industry.
13:48And oil just simply isn't sustainable in and of itself.
13:52And I think that's why energy security is a major sticking point right now,
13:58but there's a rush to diversify and to get out of that heavy reliance,
14:03which is why you see nations like Saudi Arabia opening up its relations,
14:06which is why you see the United Arab Emirates that has normalized relations
14:10with countries that wouldn't have previously normalized with, including Israel.
14:15And I think you're going to continue seeing that trend.
14:17I don't think, to be honest with you, that this, you know,
14:22if you want the Arab and Muslim connections going to be the only factor to unify nations,
14:27nor should it be.
14:28But I think that at the end of the day, something that has to absolutely be driven home
14:32is that there is nothing wrong with being pro-your country.
14:36There is nothing wrong with being pro-India, being pro-America,
14:40and there is nothing wrong with defending the cultural foundations and values of your civilization.
14:46And I think that has to be exuded, and I think that has to be implemented more.
14:49You know, I was here last week in Delhi, and I noticed that there was European leaders
14:54who were wonderful and I got to interface with,
14:56and they were saying how this new global order will be devoid of the West's influence.
15:01And I think that's utterly a mistake, and it was off mark.
15:05And I think that I understand, though, why that would be said,
15:09because in many parts of Europe, there's been a cultural annihilation,
15:13and there's been a true infarction of their security apparatus.
15:17And I think that has to do with not holding to their guns
15:20and maintaining their cultural identity and kind of capitulating.
15:24I'm a huge fan of assimilation and America first, India first.
15:31And for people of Iran, Iran first.
15:33And for the people of Iran, Iran first.
15:34Absolutely.
15:35I think when you say that it is about every country holding on to its culture,
15:41to its heritage, the people of Iran have that right too.
15:45One hundred percent, and they should decide what culture is most beneficial
15:49for them going forward.
15:50And I really pray for them and for a swift end to this conflict.
15:55Thank you, Adele, for this conversation.
15:58Thank you for joining us.
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