00:00Our guest here is a geopolitical consultant, Adele Nazarian, who is an American of Iranian heritage.
00:08That's how Adele describes herself.
00:11Adele, this is a question that I've asked just about every global thinker that I've interviewed in the last few
00:18days.
00:19As the war enters the third week, who benefits from this war?
00:25Great to be with you. I see the microphone is working. Thank you.
00:28Thank you. Frankly, there is no one that benefits from war on a human level, of course.
00:38But geopolitically, I think this is a tremendous, I guess you can call it a challenge and a competition for
00:48the new global order.
00:50I think who ends up coming out on top, frankly, is going to be the people who are aligned with
00:56the new order, so to speak.
00:57I really feel that it's going to bring about a stronger U.S.-India relationship, and I think it's also going
01:04to result in a strategic realignment of GCC nations towards the West.
01:10So I think that ultimately the West and the middle nations, like India, will end up benefiting from this war.
01:19And I feel at the end of the day, if the people of Iran do decide to take matters into
01:24their own hands, that they will be able to decide a destiny for themselves that is very different than the
01:29current reality that they've been facing for the past four decades.
01:33So as an Iranian-American, what will you be telling the people of Iran?
01:38Of course, you're not inside Iran.
01:40No, not.
01:40The view of those who are inside Iran right now is very different from Iranians abroad or outside.
01:48They seem to be more sympathetic and concerned about this aggression, and Iranians at present are of the opinion that
01:58they must back Mushtabah Khamenei.
02:00So as Iranian who's outside, what are your views?
02:05Absolutely.
02:06So as an American of Iranian heritage, I've never been to Iran.
02:11I speak the language fluently, and I'm very proud of my culture, my Persian culture and heritage.
02:16I have been speaking with people who are inside of Iran very frequently, and I have been seeing a very
02:22big mix.
02:23Frankly, it depends on who you're speaking to.
02:25What I've been hearing and what I've been seeing from the Iranian diaspora in the United States, throughout Europe, about
02:32other parts of the GCC nations,
02:34they are actually supportive of having a more democratic, different, non-religiously aligned leadership in their nation, but ultimately rest
02:47in their own hands.
02:48I think the majority of people there are tired of struggling, is what I've been hearing.
02:53People who were in the top 1% previously, who over the past decade in particular, have been struggling to
03:02be able to support themselves and their families.
03:04Their businesses have been confiscated.
03:07I think this is the trend.
03:08I know sanctions haven't been helpful either, but we've come to a breaking point now, where America has constantly said
03:17this.
03:18It's up to the Iranian people to decide their destiny.
03:20And I don't frankly think that any kind of true effective change can happen without having some kind of intervention.
03:29And that's why I feel it may end up being up to the current governance structure within, let's say, the
03:35IRGC ranks to actually decide,
03:38are they going to be on the side of a continuity of what's been taking place for the past 47
03:44years,
03:45or is it going to be on the side of the people more and end up turning?
03:48So I think Iranians are, A, looking for an end to this conflict, which I completely respect and hope that
03:58we all see an end to this conflict very soon.
04:01But I think what I've been hearing is a very different sentiment, frankly, that they do want change.
04:07The change has to come from within.
04:10100%.
04:10It cannot be imposed on the people of Iran.
04:12That's right.
04:13I think we saw in 79 the grave mistake that President Jimmy Carter, the late Jimmy Carter made.
04:21And Iran has been paying the price ever since.
04:25And I think that the global order has also seen a very dramatic shift in its security apparatus
04:30and the way that global security has shaped ever since that decision was made to remove the late Shavran.
04:36That said, I don't believe that an outside leader will end up going to Iran and end up being elected
04:44as their new leader.
04:45I don't personally see that scenario taking hold.
04:49I think, you know, the crown prince has been very effective outside of Iran,
04:52because I just mentioned the Shah, of rallying the people inside Iran,
04:56and then also the diaspora community within the West and the Arab nations, also Arab world,
05:04have been heavily supportive of him.
05:06But I just don't personally see, with much respect to him as well,
05:09I don't personally see any kind of scenario taking place where he actually ends up being the de facto leader
05:16in Iran.
05:18Iran has been one of the oldest civilizations.
05:21But why is it that this civilization did not have a leverage over the brother nations,
05:31largely the nations around it, Saudi Arabia, Qatar,
05:36and these countries opened up for U.S. and Israel?
05:41That's really an ideological question that has to do with, unfortunately,
05:49battling factions internally within the Muslim order,
05:53the Shia-Sunni kind of, you know, frictions that occur at a more, let's say,
05:59human and geopolitical level, which is also unfortunate,
06:03because I think if you're of one faith, you should be able to be unified as well.
06:07But I think the difference also is that
06:13Iran culturally, historically,
06:16is a far cry today from what it was back in the days of Cyrus the Great,
06:22back in the days of, you know, prior to, let's say,
06:26the influence that it's been having,
06:30changing its name to,
06:31I will say this and I've always said this,
06:33I think nations that present their identity and name with a religious identity along with it
06:40rarely survive over time.
06:42You can't have an Islamic Republic of Iran.
06:45You can't have an Islamic Republic of Pakistan
06:47and expect for it to last, you know, forever.
06:51I think the world is trending more towards,
06:54and especially the Iranian people, frankly,
06:55they are really more,
06:58they're less religiously motivated
07:02and more secular.
07:04I think many of them believe in God.
07:06But I think that's ultimately what's going to determine a nation's survival,
07:10democratic values,
07:12and liberal order, so to speak.
07:14And that runs counter to what is currently taking place there.
07:17So the GCEA.
07:18Yeah.
07:18So in the opening comment,
07:20you said that in the next few years,
07:23we'll be seeing some kind of strategic realignment of GCC.
07:27So will this war lead to birth of a new West Asian order?
07:34New West Asian model?
07:37I think this was inevitable.
07:40I think that I have to first of all commend Prime Minister Narendra Modi
07:45for his handling of the geopolitical situation for this great nation,
07:52which is a strong U.S. ally and will continue to be
07:55and continue getting stronger.
07:57He's the only person that can call up Trump,
08:02President Trump, Putin, Zelensky, Xi Jinping,
08:06Pesashkian,
08:07and literally moderate between everyone.
08:10So I think this shifting order is going to see a realignment of,
08:14as I mentioned before, the GCC's nations.
08:16I think Bahrain, Kuwait, the UAE,
08:20they were all attacked by their regional, you know, neighbor, Iran.
08:24And I think that we just saw it yesterday, was it,
08:27that the UAE has shut down the Iranian hospital,
08:30which, frankly, I have to tell you,
08:33is probably one of the best hospitals in the UAE.
08:35The doctors are at top quality.
08:37But this is the result of war.
08:39It's recalled it's all Iranians to leave the country.
08:42And I think that this is an indication
08:46that you can't attack your allies or neighbors
08:48and expect to be immune from it.
08:51So I think Iran is going to be increasingly isolating itself
08:54in its current leadership format
08:56unless there is an effective change.
08:58So I do see the GCC nations aligning more towards the West
09:02and to India, frankly.
09:04As an American here,
09:08did the West misread the larger fallout of the war?
09:15Mislead the larger fallout?
09:16Yes.
09:17What do you mean by that, if I may ask?
09:19In the sense that the reaction that will come in from Iran,
09:24this is way beyond the 12-day war.
09:28I don't think anything that the U.S. said was misleading.
09:31I think people have been questioning whether President Trump
09:34and the administration had a plan going into this.
09:38And I think there is a plan,
09:40but I don't think that the plan was regime change,
09:43to be honest with you.
09:43I think that the plan was to strike what was perceived
09:48as Western and geopolitical threats, you know, positions.
09:53Then why did Donald Trump say that he wanted to ensure
09:56that whosoever leads Iran is personally chosen by him?
10:00So if it was not about regime change,
10:02then why did he reiterate it?
10:04I'm not in the President's head,
10:05but I'm certain that whatever he's saying has a purpose behind it.
10:10But I don't think that there was any kind of misleading.
10:12I think the media in general,
10:14you know, I always ask this question,
10:16what were the numbers really coming out of Iran?
10:19Was it the 3,000, the 10,000 people
10:22that the media has been reporting,
10:23or was it 60,000 people who were massacred leading up to it?
10:28You know, what's the truth?
10:30So I think that, you know,
10:33we have to look at what's being disseminated by the media as well.
10:37And of course, it's the media's job to question these things.
10:40But I think that...
10:41But the media is reporting what's happening in Iran.
10:43I mean, the fact that children, young girls,
10:47young students have been killed is a reality of it.
10:50It's horrific that any member of society,
10:53especially children, are killed.
10:56And I don't know, to be frank with you,
10:58what's the reality with the situation.
11:00I think there's been investigations into it.
11:02But that's not...
11:04It's a horrible, horrible tragedy.
11:06But I don't think the U.S. has been misleading
11:08in terms of what it's put forward.
11:10I think, again, it rests in the hands of the Iranian people,
11:14as it should.
11:17And ultimately, I think that the U.S. is very fortunate
11:21and India is very fortunate
11:24to be able to have that communication channel
11:27and that relationship where in this new global order,
11:31there is going to be, I think a...
11:34It's going to be a less friction-oriented order going forward.
11:39And I know the Cold War is over.
11:41That era is way... It's long gone.
11:43But there's a big, big difference here
11:46in terms of what we're entering,
11:48in that this is a Cold War 2.0, if you want to call it that.
11:50But previously, it was boots on the ground.
11:54It was on land, by foot, on different fronts strategically.
11:58This is a way different war that's being fought.
12:01It's a battle for ideological civilization.
12:04It's a battle for the Western civilization, frankly, and for the East.
12:09It's a head-to-head.
12:10And I think it's going to be defined by AI, by tech, by military dominance.
12:16And I think that the United States has and will continue to be
12:20the leading military and innovative force technologically in the world.
12:24And I look forward to seeing how that relationship will continue to flourish,
12:29with India especially.
12:31You know, because in this war, one of the biggest concerns have been energy security.
12:36When the realignment, as you see, happen,
12:41will energy be defining the realignment?
12:44Will that be the pivot?
12:45Yes.
12:46The holding block, or are you of the opinion that it will be civilizational connect
12:51that Iran has with most of these countries,
12:55the religious connect that Iran has, that will decide the way forward?
13:02I think that – thank you for that question.
13:04I think energy will absolutely be a defining factor.
13:07I mean, that's why, you know, India has been – Prime Minister Modi has been
13:12receiving phone calls to actually get U.S. oil over through negotiating different channels.
13:19India has still received a phone call from Iran indicating that they will have access
13:23to the State of Hormuz.
13:25If you've noticed also, and this is a major, major point that I think everyone
13:28in the audience should be aware of if you're not already,
13:30is that there has been a strategic shift to diversification of assets,
13:34and there is a shift away from oil and energy in a traditional sense into rare earths.
13:41And I think that's a big part of what this new order and new conflict is about.
13:46It's about the rare earths industry.
13:48And oil just simply isn't sustainable in and of itself.
13:52And I think that's why energy security is a major sticking point right now,
13:58but there's a rush to diversify and to get out of that heavy reliance,
14:03which is why you see nations like Saudi Arabia opening up its relations,
14:06which is why you see the United Arab Emirates that has normalized relations
14:10with countries that wouldn't have previously normalized with, including Israel.
14:15And I think you're going to continue seeing that trend.
14:17I don't think, to be honest with you, that this, you know,
14:22if you want the Arab and Muslim connections going to be the only factor to unify nations,
14:27nor should it be.
14:28But I think that at the end of the day, something that has to absolutely be driven home
14:32is that there is nothing wrong with being pro-your country.
14:36There is nothing wrong with being pro-India, being pro-America,
14:40and there is nothing wrong with defending the cultural foundations and values of your civilization.
14:46And I think that has to be exuded, and I think that has to be implemented more.
14:49You know, I was here last week in Delhi, and I noticed that there was European leaders
14:54who were wonderful and I got to interface with,
14:56and they were saying how this new global order will be devoid of the West's influence.
15:01And I think that's utterly a mistake, and it was off mark.
15:05And I think that I understand, though, why that would be said,
15:09because in many parts of Europe, there's been a cultural annihilation,
15:13and there's been a true infarction of their security apparatus.
15:17And I think that has to do with not holding to their guns
15:20and maintaining their cultural identity and kind of capitulating.
15:24I'm a huge fan of assimilation and America first, India first.
15:31And for people of Iran, Iran first.
15:33And for the people of Iran, Iran first.
15:34Absolutely.
15:35I think when you say that it is about every country holding on to its culture,
15:41to its heritage, the people of Iran have that right too.
15:45One hundred percent, and they should decide what culture is most beneficial
15:49for them going forward.
15:50And I really pray for them and for a swift end to this conflict.
15:55Thank you, Adele, for this conversation.
15:58Thank you for joining us.
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