00:00As we've been hearing, the Strait of Hormuz has become a danger zone for world shipping since the war began
00:04on February the 28th.
00:06But there are ships from some countries still getting through.
00:10Iran's Deputy Foreign Minister Majditaht Ravanchi confirmed some countries have spoken directly with Iran.
00:16Their vessels have been granted passage.
00:19Monty Francis with this.
00:22The images of burning oil tankers have struck fear in maritime crews from across the globe hoping to cross the
00:28Strait of Hormuz.
00:30With Iran's new supreme leader vowing to continue to throttle traffic in the Strait, some ships have taken to declaring
00:36a link to Beijing, Iran's most important economic partner.
00:40In the past week, at least 30 vessels have abruptly claimed to have a Chinese owner or to be carrying
00:46a Chinese crew.
00:47Earlier in the week, a Panama flagship made it through the Strait, two days after changing its destination to China
00:54owner on its transponder.
00:56Beijing has not reacted to the manoeuvre, but has called for an end to the hostilities.
01:01The Strait of Hormuz is a crucial international trade route.
01:05Maintaining security and stability in the region serves the common interests of the international community.
01:10China urges all parties involved to immediately cease military operations.
01:14On Thursday, the oil tanker Shenlong, carrying Saudi crude, arrived at a port in Mumbai after crossing the Strait of
01:21Hormuz.
01:22It's the first vessel to reach India from the Middle East since the war began.
01:26On Thursday, Reuters reported that India had reached a deal with Tehran for its ships to pass through the Strait.
01:33Iran denied such a deal existed, but India confirmed talks had taken place.
01:38The external affairs minister and the foreign minister of Iran have had three conversations in the last few days.
01:45The last one discussed issues pertaining to safety of shipping.
01:50But India has not been unscathed.
01:53The country's shipping ministry said that three Indian sailors had been killed and four others injured
01:58in maritime incidents involving foreign-flagged vessels since the Iran war began.
02:02India has given safe harbor to almost 200 Iranian sailors, allowing their ship to dock on India's southwestern coast shortly
02:11after the war broke out.
02:14Monty Francis, with that, let's get more analysis.
02:17Giacomo Gianni joins us, a professor at the Paris School of International Affairs.
02:21Giacomo, thanks for being with us.
02:23What is your take on this situation regarding some ships getting through the Strait of Hormuz,
02:29some countries doing deals or not?
02:31It seems to be a lot of smoke and mirrors are present.
02:35Well, indeed, it's not clear what is happening exactly.
02:40And that means that it is difficult to draw any conclusions from the news.
02:48One needs to see whether it is just a few tankers that have been trapped in the Gulf that have
02:59been allowed to pass,
03:01or is this freedom of passage for all Indian tankers?
03:08Does it mean Indian flagged tankers?
03:13Does it mean tankers that have oil heading to India on board?
03:21All of these are important questions to which we don't have an answer yet.
03:25Of course, the thing is, if Indian ships are getting through, if Chinese ships are getting through,
03:30it sends a clear message about which side of the war, of the argument, that India and China are on.
03:38Well, India and China are the major customers of oil from the Gulf.
03:44They account for roughly 50% of all the shipments of petroleum out of the Gulf.
03:52So, clearly, they have a lot at stake in every interest to make sure that the Strait of Hormuz is
04:03reopened.
04:06And, of course, both China and India might argue that they had nothing to do with the starting of the
04:11war.
04:12Basically, their economies are being, in a sense, undermined by the fact that this is going on.
04:17So, they should have the right to access the oil that they need.
04:20Would that be their argument, you think?
04:23Well, their argument would be, certainly, in the case of China, that they have supported the Iranian regime for a
04:31long time.
04:32They always claimed that they were not interested in regime change and have defended Iran against the pressure and the
04:44sanctions.
04:44They have not recognized the sanctions.
04:47So, I mean, Iran doesn't have many friends around.
04:50And China, for sure, is one.
04:53And India is a good customer.
04:55It has always been.
04:57So, it's not seemingly in the best interest of Iran to pick up a quarrel with these two countries.
05:06Indeed.
05:07It more wonders what those people under the bombs in Iran may be thinking when they hear about these kind
05:12of things going on.
05:13So, it's something that this expediency, as it seems, might seem very distasteful on so many levels.
05:21Yes.
05:21But, you know, there is a lot of uncertainty about the goals, the goals of Iran, just as much as
05:31the goals, the final objective of Donald Trump.
05:37Iran appeared to be aiming at creating havoc in international oil markets, so to push the price of oil, as
05:45they said, some said, up to $200 per barrel.
05:50If they want to do that, they have to hit China and India, because they are the major customers.
05:59If they are not willing to pick up a fight with China and India, then it will be extremely difficult
06:09to cause a crisis for a long time.
06:17And the prices will come down if it is confirmed that China and India can receive oil freely.
06:24Can I ask you about the issue of planting explosives, mines, as we call them, at sea, in the Strait
06:31of Hormuz?
06:32It's reported that Iran might be considering doing this kind of thing.
06:36It would be very unlikely, really, wouldn't it, given that these Indian ships, these Chinese ships will be passing business
06:42for Iran.
06:43It would be really foolish of Iran to put explosives in the waterway, wouldn't it?
06:50Yes, it would be rather foolish, and in addition, it should be considered that the Strait of Hormuz is not
06:58exclusively Iranian.
07:00As a matter of fact, the corridors, the navigation corridors lie entirely in Omani waters.
07:09So Iran would have to mine also the waters of Oman, and Oman has been a close, not an ally,
07:24but at least a mediator to allow Iran to negotiate.
07:30And so it's not likely that they would mine the waters of Oman.
07:36Indeed, that said, Giacomo, of course, there's been the strike on the port in Oman, which has caused a great
07:42deal of consternation, should we say.
07:45The president of Iran actually passing a phone call to the Sultan to apologise and say there'd be an inquiry
07:52held as to why that happened.
07:54But nonetheless, Iran has bombed Oman. So why not just mine the waterways as well?
08:00Yes, well, you know, there is a difference at the moment.
08:06The president of Iran can claim that this was a mistake.
08:09It was done by someone who was not under control from the centre.
08:16But it is more difficult to claim that if you are systematically mining the waters.
08:26So the danger of mining exists, but it seems unlikely also because Iran itself needs to have passage through Hormuz.
08:39So once they've launched mines, they may be affecting Iranian interests as well.
08:48Giacomo, how would you describe India's role in all of this?
08:51Because we can talk about India's role in kind of fencing, that is to say, buying and then reselling under
08:58a different label, Russia's oil,
09:00which has obviously helped, you know, Russia's war effort in Ukraine.
09:04Now it seems doing the same thing to help Iran get through its necessary spending for its war effort too.
09:12How would you describe India's role?
09:14Some people might say it's really morally corrupt in some way.
09:21Well, there is a major difference between Russia and Iran with respect to India.
09:27India was importing precious little Russian oil before the invasion of Ukraine.
09:34They stepped up their purchases very significantly and reduced purchases from the Gulf in order to profit from the lower
09:48price of Russian oil
09:50and export oil and export oil products everywhere in the world, including in Europe, towards Europe.
09:59Iran has always been a supplier of India.
10:03India never accepted the sanctions against Iran.
10:08So it is something that has not changed significantly over the years.
10:16So India cannot be really accused of profiting from the situation at the moment.
10:26Perhaps it has profited from the situation throughout by not adhering to the sanctions.
10:32But that's a problem of the countries that have created the sanctions.
10:39Indeed, here exactly what you're saying, Giacomo Luciani, thank you so much indeed for giving us your analysis
10:44and sharing it with us here at France 24.
10:46Much appreciated.
10:47That's Giacomo Luciani, Professor at the Paris School of International Affairs.
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