00:00Stock markets have turned volatile globally following the conflict in West Asia.
00:06Stock markets and bond markets have corrected sharply.
00:10Gold, the safe haven asset, is strong and crude oil has shot through the roof.
00:17No one knows how long this war will last.
00:19Now, we don't know what will be the economic consequences of this conflict.
00:25What should investors do in this time of crisis?
00:28Welcome to GeoJit Spotlight.
00:31Markets are worried about the uncertainty regarding the war and its consequences.
00:36From the Indian perspective, the big worry is inflation.
00:40Crude oil has shot up by more than 30% within a few days.
00:45If crude price remains high for an extended period of time, India's trade deficit will widen.
00:52Rupee will depreciate further, causing inflation.
00:55Higher inflation may force the RBI to raise interest rates and this might impact economic growth and corporate earnings.
01:05This is the worry.
01:06If the conflict ends in, say, three or four weeks, this fear need not materialize.
01:13But no one knows how long the war will last.
01:16So, what should investors do?
01:18A big lesson from market experience is that geopolitical crisis, like wars, will not last long.
01:26Even when they last long, they soon become irrelevant, like the Ukraine war.
01:30Markets bounce back, giving good returns to those who remained invested and continued to invest.
01:37This is a lesson from the last four decades of conflicts and geopolitical crisis.
01:44Let us take the recent history.
01:46The last six years, these are instances which are very fresh in our memory.
01:51Here, I have included geopolitical issues like wars and also calamities like COVID and policy calamities like Trump tariffs.
02:02So, let me summarize.
02:04In 2020, we had the COVID pandemic.
02:08The market crashed.
02:09Big crash.
02:10In 2022, Russia attacked Ukraine.
02:14Inflation spiked.
02:15The market crashed.
02:16In 2023, the Gaza war began.
02:19Again, the market crashed.
02:21Not big time, but there was a sharp correction.
02:24In 2025, President Trump shocked the world with his reciprocal tariff.
02:29Again, the market crashed.
02:31This time, the crash was very sharp.
02:33In 2025, we had the Pahalgam terror attack, followed by India-Pakistan war, the Operation Sindur.
02:40This also saw market correction.
02:43So, each time a crisis broke out, the market corrected sharply.
02:48But then what happened?
02:49Each time, the market bounced back.
02:51Nifty was 7,511 in March 2020 after the COVID crash.
02:57Now, in March 2026, after all these crises which I explained, Nifty is above 24,000.
03:04Delivering decent returns to investors who remained invested and continued to invest systematically.
03:11In the long run, the market will track economic growth and corporate earnings.
03:17Geopolitical issues will be significant in the short run, but irrelevant in the long run.
03:22After 3 or 4 months, it will be forgotten like the old grain bar.
03:26So, what is the lesson from experience?
03:28The lessons from experience are, one, don't panic and get out of the market.
03:33It will be wrong policy.
03:35Two, if your risk appetite is high and if you are a long term investor, use this crisis in
03:42the market to slowly accumulate high quality blue chips, which are available now at fair
03:48valuations.
03:49Three, never stop systematic investment plans.
03:52This is perhaps the most important.
03:54This is the most important message that I want to convey.
03:57Continue with systematic investment plans.
03:59If possible, increase the amount.
04:02Remember that the big advantage of SIP is rupee cost averaging.
04:07When the market falls, you get stocks cheaper and for your mutual fund investments, for the
04:13same amount of investment, you get more units.
04:16And later, when the market rebounds, this always happens, investors benefit.
04:21The short term volatility will lead to long term appreciation.
04:27SIP investors gain by continuing their investment.
04:31The only condition is that you should have a minimum 3 year investment horizon.
04:37One year returns can be poor, can be even negative.
04:40Even two year returns can be poor.
04:42But if you have a three year time horizon, returns will be good.
04:46About three years, returns will be very impressive.
04:49Look at this data showing three year, five year, 10 year returns from SIPs, from various schemes.
04:57Here I have taken returns from SIPs.
05:00Remember this?
05:00I have taken returns only from SIPs.
05:03SIPs from different categories of mutual fund schemes, like large cap, mid cap, small cap,
05:11large and mid cap, value, flexi cap, aggressive hybrid, balance advantage fund, etc.
05:17Also, it is important to understand that the returns are average returns, not the best returns,
05:25not the worst returns.
05:27These are average returns.
05:30I am not explaining this.
05:31The data is self-explanatory.
05:34Just look at the average SIP returns.
05:37The three year returns are good.
05:39The five year returns are very good.
05:41These are CAGR returns.
05:43The longer you continue with SIPs, the better.
05:47More important, there won't be any loss.
05:51This is the lesson from investment history.
05:54Investors can learn from history.
05:56Best wishes.
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