00:09Iran's hand is significantly weak, their top leadership is gone, their air defenses are
00:14obliterated and they stand alone without allies or proxies. So here's the question, how long can
00:23this regime keep fighting? It depends on five factors. The first factor is geography. Iran is a
00:31vast country with deserts, mountains and rugged hills, not to mention it's a massive country.
00:37Iran's size is around 1.6 million square kilometers. 1.6 million square kilometers,
00:44that's more than three times the size of Iraq and more than two times the size of Afghanistan.
00:49Remember, the US tried regime change in both these countries, Iraq and Afghanistan, and both
00:56times the Americans lost. So chances are the US will not put soldiers in Iran. And without soldiers
01:03on the ground, it will be hard to install and protect a new regime. And this is just one benefit
01:11of the geography. The vast landmass allows Iran to absorb more attacks. Just compare it to Israel.
01:17Israel. Israel's area is only 22,000 square kilometers. It's basically a packed strip of
01:23people. So any Iranian attack will cause massive damage in Israel. And we saw that last year in
01:30June. Israel landed 379 attacks on Iran. They hit 28 out of Iran's 31 provinces. And yet Iran kept firing
01:41back. In response, the Iranians landed around 50 missile hits on Israel. And 50 hits was enough
01:49to force a ceasefire. You see the difference. 379 attacks from Israel versus 50 attacks from Iran.
01:57In geopolitics, we call this strategic depth. When you're attacked, you can fall back deeper into
02:04your vast land. Iran has the depth. Israel does not. Then you have the Strait of Hormuz. Iran is
02:12located on this key waterway. It carries around 20 percent of global oil shipments. Iran's navy can
02:18easily block this waterway and choke oil supplies. Again, it's a blessing of geography. But geography
02:24alone cannot protect them forever. The second factor is their missile stockpile. This is the regime's
02:31offensive Trump card. So far, the Iranians have fired more than 150 ballistic missiles at Israel
02:37and U.S. targets. Last June, they had fired 500. And how many do they have? Reports say Iran has
02:47some 3,000 missiles. Not all of these missiles can reach Israel. Some of them can only reach
02:53neighboring U.S. bases. So Iran will have to make some crucial calculations. Do they fire
02:58endlessly? Do they fire in waves? How many missiles in each wave? Which missiles for
03:02different targets? And so on. They will have to optimize all of that. Plus, it's not enough
03:06to have missiles. You also need launchers to fire those missiles. Both Israel and the U.S. are
03:12taking out those launchers. They're attacking Iranian launchers. So while the missiles are a key
03:17weapon, Iran will have to use it strategically. Then we come to the third factor, the role of the
03:25Iranian people. It is no secret that the regime is unpopular in Iran. A lot of Iranians are fed up
03:32with the brutal clerical rule. The question is, will that force them to hit the streets?
03:39Will they mobilize to take on the regime's forces?
03:44Benjamin Netanyahu and Donald Trump are betting on this. But the problem is, there is no organized
03:48opposition in Iran. There is no nationwide democracy movement. Thus, right now, the people are scared.
03:53Israeli and American bombs are streaking over their heads. In this atmosphere of fear, people may hesitate
04:01to go out and protest. Which brings us to the fourth factor. Will the regime crack? We saw this happen
04:09in
04:09Venezuela. President Nicolas Maduro's deputy tacitly sided with the U.S. She agreed to take over after Maduro's
04:16capture. If that happens in Iran, the regime may collapse or transform itself. But as of now, that
04:23has not happened. Unlike Venezuela, Iran's regime is a hardened ideological theocracy. It is bound together
04:30by religion, personality, cults and ideological rigidity. Those are extremely hard to break apart.
04:37So if the regime does not crack, you will need even more power to overthrow it. Basically,
04:42take out more and more senior leaders. And now the final factor. Can the U.S. allies take strong
04:50punches? Say the Gulf Arab economies take a huge hit. Say Arab citizens are killed or injured in this
04:56crossfire. Will these countries absorb the punches like Iran or Israel? Will their rulers show the
05:03appetite to hit back? Iran is hoping they won't. Iran is hoping that these attacks will force the
05:09Gulf states to push Trump for peace. So far, it has not worked. But it's a strategy that Iran is
05:15betting
05:16on. Even if the regime is toppled, an orderly transition appears unlikely. History is proof of
05:22that. If Iraq did not work, if Afghanistan did not work, if Libya did not work, why would it work
05:30in a
05:31larger, more complex and powerful country like Iran? Some people may ask, what if it does work? Well,
05:38yes, there is always an outside chance that something works. But to test out your hunch,
05:42you're putting 90 million lives at risk. And that is why regime changes are universally condemned,
05:48not because people like oppressive regimes, but because the cost of failure is way too high.
05:56Power doesn't end quietly. Some deaths are not accidents. They are messages. A gunshot. A crowd. A country
06:09frozen. The killer disappears. The questions don't. This is not just about who died. It's about what
06:19followed. Governments fell. Armies moved. History rewrote itself. Five leaders. Five moments. One pattern.
06:32The assassination.
06:49The death. The death. The death recoils. The death. The death rewrote itself. все. The after war,
06:56Go on. You, Gregido, about meaning today. All power, remember. My fucking dad headaches.
06:56Two throne. The death rewrote itself. Helped himself to heart.
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