00:00So much remains uncertain. All of this depends on the duration of this conflict.
00:05Are you comfortable with the pricing forecast at the moment?
00:09Yeah, I think because we have very little edge in forecasting the duration of a conflict like this,
00:16we rely on our framework. So what we try to do is really to model, OK, for different lengths
00:24possible of the conflict, what would this mean for the price? Our base case, as you mentioned,
00:30is for Brent to average about $76 a barrel, so up about $10 a barrel from our previous forecast
00:37in Q2. But this assumes a base case of very low flows through the Strait of Hormuz for another
00:46five days or so, and then a gradual month-long recovery of flows. And that might not happen,
00:53to your point, right? So if instead of five days, you have, let's say, another five weeks
00:59of very low flows of oil through the Strait, it's very possible that we would see Brent prices
01:05crossing the $100 per barrel threshold. Samantha, we've seen the U.S. administration flagging various
01:13options with varying degrees of detail on how they could help alleviate that pressure,
01:19everything from insurance to military escorts to the Treasury trading oil futures to release from
01:26the emergency reserves, right? Do any of those options reassure you when it comes to being able
01:32to make a difference? It's really hard to say. I think of the proof is in the pudding. So we'll
01:39have
01:39to see what types of measures will actually increase flows through the Strait. There are questions that
01:46we hear from our clients regarding the practicality of naval escorts to ships because of the large
01:52number of tankers crossing. There are also questions related to the nature of the attacks
01:58that we've seen. How effective can you be against drone attacks? So there are still a lot of questions
02:04coming from our clients in that respect. And I would say that there is not a ton of confidence
02:11that this alone can resolve the situation.
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