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In an exclusive interview with India Today, Finland President Alexander Stubb highlighted India’s growing influence in global affairs, supporting a permanent UN Security Council seat for the country. On the Russia-Ukraine conflict, he said Russia is unlikely to win, noting Ukraine’s recent territorial gains.
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00:01the world is going through perhaps its most troublesome phase in decades turbulent times
00:09wars in europe wars in west asia energy crisis aviation security issues and in midst of all of
00:17this india and europe are trying to chart out a new course they're reworking their strategic
00:23partnership and with us on this india today world exclusive is the president of finland
00:31welcome dr alexander stoop thank you very much well he is with us and he'll be speaking to us
00:37on a number of issues the world is under stress nato faces existential threat and this is a time
00:45when the world is being challenged on on multipolar alliances as also rules based order mr president
00:53thank you so much for joining us you've been a very strong advocate of rules based order but
00:59considering what we see um at the caribbean sometimes back and now in west asia isn't rules based order
01:07being challenged so extensively well yes and no i think the rules based order was created pretty
01:14much 80 years ago and right now it's under stress and strain and you kind of have two schools of
01:18thoughts on this one group says that it's a rupture the old order is dead and then there's another
01:24school to which i belong which says no it's in transition it's actually served us quite well
01:28over 80 years what we need to do in order to maintain the un the wto the imf the world
01:34bank
01:34is to give more agency and power to the global south that's how we fix it okay but when it
01:41comes
01:41to the larger perspective on what's happening around the world today
01:44uh has diplomacy western diplomacy particularly so failed us given that we're looking at wars
01:52and nobody is adhering to that very rules based order that you're talking about is the world really
01:59sleepwalking into another world war well i hope not i mean that's what we need to try to prevent so
02:04what we've seen after the end of the cold war uh was local conflicts many of them i mean you've
02:11had
02:11some of them we've had them all around the world now we're seeing more regional conflicts like we're
02:16seeing in west asia and with iran for instance and what we try to do is to prevent it from
02:22spilling
02:23over to a global conflict now two things to keep in mind when we have rules and institutions and a
02:30framework then we usually contain it but the other point is to say that just because someone is breaking the
02:37rules doesn't mean that the system is null and void i'll just give you one example if someone
02:42gets a speeding ticket it doesn't mean that the speed limits are a bad thing so we need to continue
02:47to abide by them but if that car is being crushed for for speeding take for example what's happening
02:54right now a head of state is abducted in the middle of the night another head of a country is
03:00decapitated
03:01uh and there are missiles flying uh all of this at a time when negotiations were going on and the
03:07foreign minister in in case of iran uh the foreign minister of oman said almost everything had been
03:13agreed to so is are we now looking at the law of the jungle and not the united nations no
03:20rules might is
03:22right uh unfortunately we're seeing more of that um that is why i'm such a strong advocate of
03:29multilateralism and order if there's a car crash i hope the car has not crashed so badly that
03:34we can't fix it and repair it so my idea is that you kind of have two options they're fairly
03:41binary
03:41one is a multipolar world which is about transactions and deals and spheres of interest that's what we're
03:48seeing right now that you know the deals are sort of more bilateral than anything else and then the
03:54other option is a multilateral world where you have institutions rules and norms and cooperation
04:00now my argument is that it's countries like india that will decide the direction in which the world
04:06is going to tilt and if we want to maintain the multilateral order and by we i mean the global
04:12west
04:13then we need to give more agency and power to countries like india that's why i for instance have
04:18advocated a permanent seat in the u.n security council for india because then that would keep india
04:25promoting multilateralism rather than multipolarity president so we will talk about that because this
04:30is a very important part of uh of inclusivity global inclusivity and india is an important partner
04:37and a key stakeholder but having said that coming back to iran do you think in your appreciation do you
04:43think that the world that america israel did they were gain the war right because we are not looking
04:49at a quick in and out over here it is going to lead to a massive economic crisis now you
04:56don't have
04:56russian oil india is asked has been asked not to buy russian oil and gas the strait of homos and
05:03uh and
05:03bandar al uh uh babal mandib sorry the streets are going to be shut so how will then the world
05:13survive
05:14well we'll survive you know i my favorite saying is that if you don't know how things are going to
05:19turn
05:19out assume that they will turn out good i still believe in the rationality of mankind to be able to
05:26find uh solutions to complex problems but i think the analysis that you give is the correct one and i
05:32think
05:33what happens is that when we don't have common rules and we don't do things together like we have
05:38in the un there's a power vacuum that emerges and when a power vacuum emerges someone is going to fill
05:43it um you know if someone would have told me just a week ago that do i expect uh 11
05:50countries to be hit
05:51in what you call west asia by missiles i would have said no i don't think so i think we
05:57should find a
05:57negotiation track and i had actually spoken with some of the negotiator previously so i felt
06:03that would be the case but now we are where we are and i i just spoke today uh with
06:09the president of
06:09the united uh arab uh emirants uh sheikh muhammad uh and we went through some of the pressing issues
06:16and now what we need to try to do is to de-escalate calm things down uh but it is
06:22quite difficult
06:22i personally believe that iran made a strategic mistake by attacking uh the gulf states they should
06:28not have done that because now the gulf states are going to rally around the flag together uh and see
06:34what they can do with iran but iran had forewarned they had said if we're hit we will go after
06:40we will
06:41expand uh this entire war because there is no other way they have their back to the uh to the
06:46wall they
06:46have there is no other option for iran how do you see then u.s and israel carrying out the
06:52strikes
06:53in the first place when negotiations were underway well it's difficult to say you see i come from
06:58finland i have 1340 kilometers of border with russia so my main concern from a security perspective is
07:05what's going on in ukraine so i can't say i'm an expert uh but you know if i listen to
07:11experts uh you
07:12know why did this attack take place usually there are four arguments you know one is nuclear
07:16weapons second one is missiles third one is proxies so terrorist organizations such as hamas the houthis
07:23and hezbollah and then the fourth one is regime change how this is going to pan out i don't think
07:28anyone knows but do you buy any of these arguments uh given all the information at your command that
07:34was this reason enough to go in for a strike when negotiations were happening and the world now
07:40is is facing the brunt uh all across west asia and of course uh asia itself on foreign policy there
07:47are things that you can do something about and then there are things where you can say something
07:52this is an issue where i can't do that much i can say i can conduct diplomatic discussions with my
07:58colleagues and friends but as someone obviously who always advocates international law needless to say
08:05both iran and then israel and the united states have worked outside the context of international law
08:12because usually what happens or framework usually what happens is if you have these kinds of strikes
08:17you do one of two things you get a un mandate or you have a coalition of the willing and
08:23in this case
08:24it wasn't the case but now that iran has attacked the gulf states you're starting to see a coalition of
08:29the willing uh emerging more skin in the game from big countries in europe like france and uh and the
08:35uk in this situation do you think the russia ukraine war uh the focus on russia won't be as much
08:43because
08:43resources uh that that could have gone to ukraine or should have been used in that conflict will now
08:48be diverted to west asia well i think one of the things that two of the things that ukraine has
08:54needed
08:55from the beginning and continues to need one is air defense and of course we're seeing a lot of
08:59the air defense now in this part of the world and the second one is missiles both of which uh
09:04you
09:05know are needed but we have to understand that ukraine is in a much better position than they were
09:11uh a year ago on the battlefield i hate to use these numbers but over 90 000 russian soldiers dead
09:20in three months they're not able to recruit as many as they lose on the battlefield last month ukraine
09:27gain more territory back than russia gain i was in kiev on the anniversary of the war on the 24th
09:35of
09:35february showing my strong support for president zelensky and the ukrainian people uh they are in a much
09:41better place and you have to understand that you know i come from a country which understands what's
09:46going on because the soviets attacked us uh in the winter war and the war of continuation so there's a
09:52strong affinity and i'll be very frank with you finland would have never joined nato had russia not
09:57attacked ukraine so these are big things in our region uh and the important thing is that we
10:02understand each other and what's going on but you did join the nato yes and uh and now we see
10:07a very
10:08fragmented disrupted almost broken nato in such i disagree fundamentally but go ahead
10:16is nato really not facing an existential crisis no not at all we're seeing the birth of nato 3.0
10:22uh sans america sans america without no i don't think so i think the united states is now shifting
10:29the burden when it comes to conventional uh warfare uh and that's what we're doing that's why we're
10:34increasing our defense expenditure to five percent that's why finland joined that's why sweden joined
10:39so you had one of the most substantive armies in in europe we have uh one million men and women
10:45that
10:46have done military service we have 280 000 that we can mobilize at wartime we have over 60 f-18s
10:52we just
10:52bought 64 f-35s so and the list goes on we have the biggest artillery in europe together with poland
10:59and as i always say we don't have them because we're worried about sweden we have them because we're
11:03worried about russia uh so what we're seeing is a rejuvenation of nato and the burden shifting on the
11:08conventional side but then the nuclear umbrella will still stay with the united states so i'm not
11:13worried about the future of nato at all quite the contrary uh i think um it was a strategic mistake
11:19by russia to attack ukraine because it strengthened nato but then it's gained more territory uh and i
11:26mean let me just give you the other side of the story both gita and i were in uh ukraine
11:30when the
11:30war started and we covered it both 2022 2023 uh they've lost about 20 of their country they've lost
11:38large number of people uh economies in tailspin in all of this does nato have the have the stomach
11:46to continue supporting ukraine at a time when america is engaged here and would china be the
11:52ultimate gainer in all of this because a lot of resources are being spent either in ukraine
11:56uh or in west asia well if we start from the territory issue remember that the war actually began
12:0212 years ago in 2014 uh when uh russia uh against international law annexed the crimean peninsula
12:10so within the first few days of the war with green men and women they gained 12 percent in the
12:16past 12
12:17years they have gained eight percent in the past two years they have gained one percent that means that
12:23they're only advancing a few meters per day at a cost of human life which to me is mind-boggling
12:30and in
12:30some days actually what is happening is that for one ukrainian dead soldier there are 25
12:36dead russian soldiers and as far as economy is concerned i'm not worried about ukraine it just got
12:41a 90 billion euro loan uh from uh europe nato is not involved but the member states of nato like
12:49finland
12:50like norway like denmark are supporting uh ukraine a lot the economic problem is actually with russia zero
12:59growth zero reserves interest rates of 16 percent inflation double digits and on top of that a
13:05potential bank crisis so i think the person who is more worried right now uh is president putin and
13:12if i may be very direct the what's going to happen is that russia is not going to win this
13:17war but it's
13:18virtually impossible for them to forge a peace because they know that they will look bad but in all of
13:23this president sir the fact is that at the end of the day it has to come to the negotiating
13:28table
13:29the question is very simple will ukraine have to cede territory will that be the end of the political
13:35life of the ukrainian president and we're looking at a very changed world order where you have a
13:41president in the united states of america who doesn't see russia as an enemy as a foe yeah uh so
13:48as far as
13:50territory is concerned and you'll understand as a finn i i take this very seriously because we lost 10
13:55percent of our territory in world war ii including the areas where my grandparents and my father was
14:01born but that was a peace settlement where we call it a defense victory for us but basically we were
14:08the
14:08losing party in the war we lost the land and had a lot of other restrictions what's going to happen
14:13i
14:13think uh in a peace agreement and i'm in close contact with both the americans and ukrainians i talked to
14:18the main negotiators on both sides uh on friday uh what's going to happen is that there might be a
14:25deal uh about uh territory 20 but for us that is not de jure so it's not a lawful annexation
14:34of territory
14:34so it will be de facto and there's a big difference so finland conceded territory in world war ii
14:40but ukraine will not concede territory so it's a truce it's an armistice and what will ukraine get in return
14:47it will get membership in the european union it will get security guarantees from the united states
14:53and from europe it will get one of the biggest reconstruction packages that we've seen in modern
14:58post-war history so they will be quite well off if a deal is forged we don't know what is
15:05the
15:05likelihood of this deal being forged because that's a very big thing that you're saying uh is president
15:10zielinski on board losing 20 of territory he's not losing this is finlandization is technically not
15:16happening no no no no no no so i mean let me be very clear on this uh this is
15:22not a legal abdication
15:24of territory that will never happen you will get zero european state recognizing the illegal annexation
15:31of territory in ukraine so we don't know what it's going to end but the framework of the negotiations
15:36everyone knows it it's three basic documents one is a 20 point plan that includes the territory
15:42question and the settlement especially on donetsk the president selensky has spoken about it we don't
15:47know whether it'll go to a referendum or not we don't know whether ukrainians were accepted or not
15:51the second document is security guarantees from the us and europe and the third document is a
15:56reconstruction plan so this is the package that they're working on but i think actually that the
16:02ukrainians are more willing to accept the peace deal than the russians wow that's a significant
16:07statement present sir uh but before we come to the trump question i have to circle back to oil
16:13because this is a crisis that faces not just india today it faces europe you're not willing to or you're
16:20looking at uh no zero to very little russian oil and gas but in this scenario there are some countries
16:26who still by hungary but yes there but but in this scenario when you will have a real oil crunch
16:34why should india then again be looking looked at as some uh as a country who should not be buying
16:40oil and gas from russia and can europe then survive without russian oil okay uh i come from
16:46a country of 5.6 million people you're a country of almost 1.5 billion people so i am not
16:53going to give
16:53you advice on what you buy and how you build your society uh the starting point of course is number
17:00one
17:01that we are looking at an increase in oil prices because of the situation uh in iran and what we
17:08have done in europe is to wane ourselves off of russian gas and russian oil yes there's still slovakia
17:13and yes there's still hungary but the rest of us are basically out of the business and what then
17:18happened was that this gave an opportunity for india to buy cheap oil and you work in your self-interest
17:25i you know i i'm not going to give you a moral high ground on what you do or not
17:29but for me coming
17:31from finland uh it is extremely important that we continue sanctions that we especially quench the
17:38shadow fleet which are distributing the oil basically illegally and with a lot of environmental risk
17:45in in the package but you take your sovereign decisions on what you see best fit in your relationship
17:51with the united states in your relationship with russia in your relationship with china
17:55it's extremely complex uh and we'll just see how the next few weeks pan out on the issue of nato
18:02being
18:03very strong and nato being united and nato 3.0 when it comes to the issue of greenland does all
18:10of it
18:10still remain the same if president trump still wants it or as a golfing partner you can get him off
18:16greenland while playing a game of golf yeah i mean i guess the best way to frame it is that
18:21davos the
18:22world economic forum wasn't exactly a highlight of transatlantic the partnership but munich where we had
18:29security conference it was better so on the greenland issue you'll understand me coming from a nordic
18:35country and being an arctic state uh it's a red line you know it is about the independence sovereignty
18:41and territorial integrity of a nato member the kingdom of denmark uh and as always in diplomacy you
18:48have to find solutions uh and we were looking at the good the bad and the ugly in davos the
18:54good was
18:54to get an off-ramp uh and abolish the tariff issues and put a put uh process the bad one
19:02was an increase
19:03of tariffs i mean i don't need to tell you what it means in your relationship with the us uh
19:08and then the
19:09third one was a continued military threat we were able to take option or or or scenario two and three
19:15off the table and now we have a double process one is with greenland the united states and the kingdom
19:20of denmark having a conversation about greenland and the second one is uh about arctic security uh and
19:29within the nato framework so we're working on both of those but yes i you know it was i've said
19:35it
19:35publicly as well it was an uncomfortable moment for an avid transatlanticist like myself but in terms
19:42of just how president trump has behaved with europe and european leaders how do you see that how do you
19:48see the reading were you shocked did uh i mean of course all european leaders and europe was shocked
19:53but how do you see the treatment itself well i'm very pragmatic so i have i've had the opportunity to
20:01spend quite a lot of time with president trump uh i don't want to inflate my role because as we
20:07know
20:07president trump uh consults but then makes his own mind as we have seen whether it's in venezuela or
20:13or whether it's now uh with with iran uh so my take is that don't throw the baby out with
20:19the bath
20:20water be pragmatic so what are the issues where we still continue to work with the trump administration
20:24and with with uh with uh with america it's nato it's defense we just bought 64 f35s uh it can
20:34be
20:35technology quantum computing we just sold 11 icebreakers to the united states if india is
20:40interesting we have really good icebreakers so you know be pragmatic about the relationship and understand
20:45that president trump is a deal maker so he sort of parks values aside and he looks and alliances sometimes
20:52the side and looks more at the deal side and then be honest and open about where you disagree you
20:57know we disagree on climate change we disagree degree on the european union i'm an eu nerd and i
21:03support it very strongly we disagree on global institutions we disagree on tariffs but have that
21:10conversation i mostly probably privately than publicly so you have to work work with america so you work
21:18better with him on the golf course is that the real icebreaker are you the real icebreaker no no
21:25not the real icebreaker but we also have to understand that you know as we started this conversation
21:31about the changing world order it started in my mind with russia's attack on ukraine on the 24th of
21:37february 2022 but it has now been accelerated with a new american administration and they have two
21:42guidelines and you can find them in their national security strategy one is mega so that's you know
21:48anti-globalist anti-europe uh you know anti-liberal that's ideological second was america first and
21:55there they have a pekin order they say it directly in the strategy number one is the western hemisphere
22:00number two uh is the indo-pacific number three is the mid uh is europe number four is the middle
22:06east
22:06and number five is africa that is the reality so deal with the world as it is not as you
22:11would wish it to be
22:12but isn't the indo-pacific as of now in your view also taking a back seat it's on the back
22:17burner as
22:18far as whatever is happening i mean they may they may want indo-pacific they may look at china
22:22as a challenge but uh but they're really not focused on quad something as important as quad i am not
22:29going to be giving the view of the president of the united states that is what they say in their
22:34strategy but i think there are some similar elements basically the message quite often with america first is
22:41take care of yourself take more responsibility yourself so that's why europeans are now hiking
22:47up their defense expenditure and that's probably the similar type of messages that you get in this
22:52part of the world quarter would be super important i think it's one of the most important alliances
22:56okay you're in new delhi uh and for a very important visit a very important event as well
23:02uh just talking about what you think finland can bring to the table when it comes to engagement when
23:11it comes to business when it comes to digital uh transformation and partnership uh finland has
23:18been way ahead when it comes to digital technology startups what is it that you have to offer and what
23:24do you come with well probably you know we we come with with two offerings one is about uh diplomacy
23:32engagement you know the basic argument that it's countries like india that are going to decide what
23:38the next world order looks like and having that you know dignified foreign policy and a conversation
23:44about where we go i mean with prime minister modi with foreign minister jai shankar at the ricena
23:50dialogues and the rest of it and the second side is of course business we have a business delegation
23:55of 20-ish big finnish companies we're going to be here in delhi and mumbai
23:59uh and what can the fins give you will all remember nokia phones of course but you probably don't know
24:06that most of the networks that you have here right now are run by nokia so 5g hopefully future 6g
24:12so
24:12you can complain to nokia if the reception is bad um we are very strong in quantum computing and for
24:19some people it sounds like a strange language but it's basically the stuff that drives artificial
24:25intelligence without quantum you're not going to be getting everything out of artists artificial
24:30intelligence so i would argue that you know quant is a good one uh and then we have a lot
24:36of other
24:37companies deal with satellites for instance which is a super important technology actually uh one
24:43finished satellite company run by an indian and owned by an indian so there you go we're going to have
24:48a
24:49lot of good conversations now india and the european union now have a free trade agreement
24:54but how how do you improve business to business ties between between the two blocks so that it
25:01benefits all and the niggles that are there in the relationship i think a good starting point is the
25:06free trade agreement i think it was way too long coming and what you start seeing globally is that when
25:13other countries like the united states fairly randomly increase tariffs you're going to start seeing
25:18money going elsewhere and this means increased trade relations so i'm extremely happy that
25:23india and the european union forged a free trade agreement because for a small country like finland
25:28which is in the european union this is a good news as well you're wearing a lovely indian jacket yes
25:34it looks awesome on a very auspicious day holy uh when when all of us in 19 late 1990s we
25:43started off with our
25:44first nokia phones but now um you know india is very big on making india atmanir bharat uh are you
25:51looking at more selling of stuff to india or making in india or making together probably a combination of
25:58all the three so i know that there was one company that almost had a big sort of plant deal
26:04here in
26:04india clinch but it's not there yet so we're not going to announce it uh so it's going to be
26:09very much a
26:10two-way street we have a you know good contingent of indians in finland as well who are very tech
26:16driven and speaking of made in india i actually got this waistcoat from prime minister modi very much
26:22made in india and i brought it back with me from finland all right and before we conclude my final
26:28question to you as a world leader you're dealing with leaders from across the world who are very
26:34different in their approach their policy their pragmatism how do you see a trump versus a xi
26:40jinping versus a prime minister modi how do you see these leaders and how do you deal with them
26:46i think all human beings are quite different in public from what they are in private
26:51i come from a small country which means that it's my job to get along with pretty much 200 heads
26:59of
26:59state or government around the world i have a good relationship with president xi xi ping i've met
27:06him three times we have a respectful dialogue about different issues i have a good relationship i would
27:12consider with president trump and i hope to be able to have a good relationship with prime minister
27:18modi i've only met him a few times but tomorrow is a big day for me when i have the
27:23chance to spend time
27:24with the leader of one of the most important countries in the world right now and how is the
27:30world looking at india navigating this situation and the role india can play in times to come we want
27:36leadership you are the most populated country in the world you have both demography and economy on your
27:43side and as i will say in my speech tomorrow finland is the happiest country in the world and you
27:49are
27:49the most optimistic country in the world for us to combine this happiness and optimism i think is a
27:56big deal i think the future is very much in india's hands i think there you have it the strongest
28:02message
28:02coming from you happiness and optimism combined there you go many thanks for joining us here on india
28:08today hope you have a great uh trip enjoy what remains of the of the festival of colors because the
28:14festival of colors is also the festival of hope and harmony thank you so much thank you very much
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