00:00A tropical low pressure system is heading towards the Queensland coast, likely to bring
00:04severe weather to multiple parts of the state between now and the end of the weekend.
00:08I'm Angus here at the Bureau, this is a severe weather update and let's start off with some
00:13satellite imagery.
00:14We are focused on tropical low 29U, which is still several hundred kilometres to the
00:19northeast of Cairns.
00:20If you've seen a lot of tropical weather systems, this one might look slightly unusual
00:24because the centre of the tropical low here, shown by the L, and then the surrounding
00:30rain, cloud and thunderstorms, shown here in the brightly coloured cloud, are a bit disconnected.
00:36Typically we would see these two things well in alignment, but in this case we have the
00:40centre here and then most of the convection and thunderstorms out to the west.
00:44That tells us this is not a symmetrical weather system and that means we're only seeing a
00:49really low chance now of tropical cyclone development before this weather system reaches
00:54the coast.
00:55So we are most likely going to see a tropical low pressure area reach Queensland in the
01:00coming few days.
01:01But we can still track that out with a tropical low pressure track as the system moves south-westwards
01:06towards the country, likely to arrive at some stage during probably the middle of the day
01:11or perhaps the afternoon on Friday.
01:13The likely arrival point for this tropical low pressure area is between Cairns and Townsville
01:17in the northern Queensland coast, then continuing to move south-westwards into central Queensland
01:22during the course of the weekend.
01:24Even though we don't anticipate tropical cyclone development to occur, we are still
01:29likely to see some severe weather.
01:30In fact, we're already seeing it now with heavy rain starting to build in this warning
01:34area here from Port Douglas northwards through Cooktown, pushing inland to Palmerville.
01:39This is the severe weather warning which is currently in place for Thursday into Friday where we
01:44anticipate further heavy rain to occur.
01:466 hour rainfall totals in this warning area could be in the 80-160mm range and 24 hour rainfall
01:53totals could be up to 350mm.
01:56That's a lot of rain even for this part of the country which has a very wet climate and
02:00may lead to significant areas of flooding.
02:03This is not the only part of Queensland that will see some wet weather impacts from this
02:07arrival of the tropical low pressure area, and in the coming days we anticipate these
02:12warnings could move and affect different parts of the state.
02:15Let's break it down day by day.
02:18So today, Thursday, this weather system gets closer.
02:20The heaviest falls are north of Cairns, up around this Cooktown area.
02:24That is of course where our weather warning is located for now.
02:27We will likely see some showers and storms further down the coast, potentially as far as Mackay,
02:31without seeing those significant rainfall accumulations.
02:35That will change on Friday as this weather system makes its arrival somewhere along the
02:39Queensland coast.
02:40A particular area of focus on Friday will become the southern flank of this low pressure area.
02:45That means the coast from Townsville down to Mackay will be an area to watch.
02:49Notice how the winds, which are wrapping around this system, will be driving in from the north
02:54directly onto this stretch of coastline, pushing rain and thunderstorms onto this area through
03:00the Herbert and Lower Burdekin, the central coast, including around the Whitsundays and
03:04Hamilton Island.
03:05It could get very wet there on Friday and that will be a focus for severe weather.
03:09Into the weekend then, this tropical low pressure area continues to plunge into central Queensland,
03:15and that is going to expand the area of impact across most northern and eastern parts of the
03:20state.
03:21Heavy falls could continue over north Queensland, but may also stretch down through the central
03:25coast Capricornia and into the Wide Bay here around Bundaberg and Harvey Bay, and potentially
03:30get as far south as southeast Queensland during the course of the weekend.
03:34These impacts will be widespread, in particular it will be those impacts coming from the rain.
03:39Flash and riverine flooding could play a very serious part in the weather over the next
03:43three to four days in Queensland.
03:45And of course the rain which is arriving, is arriving onto already wet and flooded areas
03:49in some parts of the state.
03:51There will be some strong winds, particularly in the next couple of days as that system approaches
03:55and crosses the coast, which may lead to tree property damage or power lines and power outages,
04:00and we could certainly see some road closures due to that combination of wet and windy weather.
04:05In terms of how much rain we could see, we could really get some big rainfall totals initially
04:10up here north of Cairns, we'd be looking up to about 350mm there.
04:14And then we see the heavier falls just gradually sliding southwards down the coast, with the chance
04:19for triple figures, 100mm plus through parts of the central coast, Capricornia, possibly
04:24getting all the way down to Brisbane later on in the weekend.
04:26There is definitely some uncertainty about how much rain could fall across the southeast
04:30of the state, so if you do live in Brisbane or anywhere else in southeast Queensland over
04:34the coming days, definitely keep a track of your forecast, especially for that potential
04:38rain on Sunday.
04:40Finally, just a glimpse, a snapshot of the flood situation occurring across Queensland
04:45at the moment.
04:46Ongoing flooding is occurring over central and western parts of the state, with multiple
04:50rivers still experiencing major flooding based on recent rainfall.
04:54There is some minor flooding in other parts of the state, but the darker blue here is our
04:58flood watch, and that is where we could see new or renewed flooding in the coming days, based
05:03on that forecast for heavy rainfall in northern and eventually central parts of Queensland.
05:08This is a dynamic situation, we've already seen changes to the forecast and we may see
05:13further changes as we continue to learn more about 29U and get more confidence about its
05:18track and potential weather impacts.
05:20So do stay up to date with your warnings and your forecasts on the Bureau's website or app.
05:24Thanks so much for watching and stay safe.
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