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The geopolitical world was shaken to its core when a joint U.S.-Israeli strike reportedly eliminated Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Join us as we break down everything you need to know about why Khamenei became a target, the decades of proxy warfare and nuclear brinkmanship that led here, and what the future of the Middle East looks like now that the Islamic Republic's most powerful figure is gone.
Transcript
00:00On February 28, 2026, the world woke up to a geopolitical earthquake.
00:05One of the most powerful and polarizing figures in modern history,
00:09Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was reportedly eliminated in a massive joint U.S.-Israeli strike.
00:14That's right, Jessica.
00:15Two Israeli sources telling me and my colleague Tal Shalev that Israel has confirmed
00:20that the supreme leader of Iran, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei,
00:24has been killed as a result of those Israeli strikes.
00:27But while the headlines are focused on the architect himself,
00:30this story is about much more than just one man.
00:33It's the culmination of decades of ideological warfare,
00:37proxy battles, and a regional strategy that finally reached its breaking point.
00:41Our objective is to defend the American people by eliminating
00:45imminent threats from the Iranian regime.
00:49Welcome to WatchMojo.
00:51And today we're breaking down 10 things you need to know about why Khamenei became a target
00:55and what happens next.
00:57Iran would have been much, much closer to a nuclear weapon,
01:01maybe even have a nuclear weapon by now.
01:04The post-Cold War power shift.
01:07After the Soviet Union collapsed, the U.S. stood as the world's lone superpower.
01:11It's the former Soviet Union that is now in trouble.
01:14Gorbachev acknowledged that he has left the country in a dangerous state.
01:18But as the decades passed, the unipolar moment faded.
01:22While China rose economically and Russia rebuilt its military,
01:26a loose counterblock began to form.
01:28On one side you have the U.S., EU, U.K., and Israel.
01:32On the other, an alignment of Russia, China, and the Islamic Republic of Iran.
01:37Khamenei positioned the regime as the ideological spearhead of this resistance,
01:41making the Islamic Republic a central player in a new era of global competition.
01:471979, the strategic flip.
01:49It's easy to forget, but before the 1979 Islamic Revolution,
01:54Iran was actually America's primary ally in the Middle East.
01:57When that alliance collapsed, the regional map was redrawn.
02:01Traumatized by the Iran-Iraq War, where Western powers backed Saddam Hussein,
02:06Tehran began investing in the Axis of Resistance.
02:09But Iran does have a network of allies across the region.
02:12It has a name for it, the Axis of Resistance.
02:14The goal? Avoid direct war by building a massive network of proxies
02:19to surround adversaries and deter them through asymmetric power.
02:23For nearly 40 years, it was a strategy that defined the region.
02:26They can also use these positions to attack U.S. interests
02:30or threaten Israel closer to its border.
02:32October 7th changed the equation.
02:35The events of October 7th, 2023 upended decades of regional rules.
02:40In the years that followed, the response was overwhelming.
02:43Hamas was severely degraded, Hezbollah's leadership was systematically targeted,
02:48and the Assad regime in Syria eventually collapsed.
02:51They toppled statues, including this one of Assad's late father,
02:55and they also liberated political prisoners.
02:59Suddenly, the forward defense perimeter Tehran had spent decades building was gone.
03:03For the first time in his long tenure, Khamenei looked exposed,
03:07and the architecture of his deterrence was crumbling.
03:10It must be punished and will be punished, he said.
03:14The revolutionary survivor.
03:16Ali Khamenei wasn't always the obvious choice for leader.
03:19Born in 1939 and a disciple of Ayatollah Khomeini,
03:23he rose to power in 1989 despite not being the most senior cleric at the time.
03:27To make it happen, the Iranian constitution was actually amended to fit his credentials.
03:32And, as supreme leader, he had to build his power base.
03:36He did so by aligning himself with Iran's hardline military force,
03:41the Revolutionary Guard.
03:42To his supporters, he was a stabilizer and a guardian of sovereignty.
03:46To his detractors, he was the face of an immovable theocracy.
03:50Regardless of the perspective, his almost 37-year role
03:54made him the longest-serving contemporary autocrat in the region.
03:57But he was becoming increasingly unpopular.
04:02Under Khamenei's watch, power in Iran didn't just stay the same, it centralized.
04:07The supreme leader's office grew in influence,
04:09while the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, or IRGC,
04:13evolved from a paramilitary group into a military-economic powerhouse.
04:17While the IRGC oversees the Quds Force,
04:20which is responsible for foreign operations,
04:23it's also influential in national politics.
04:26By filtering elections and constraining reform movements,
04:29the regime shifted from revolutionary populism to a system of institutional control.
04:34It was a strategy built for durability, not flexibility.
04:38It controls key sectors of the Iranian economy,
04:41oil, construction, telecommunications, and finance,
04:44and is believed to hold up to 50% of the country's oil wealth.
04:48Proxy power and regional reach
04:50Khamenei's signature doctrine was simple.
04:53Leverage others to fight your battles.
04:55By funding and arming groups like Hezbollah in Lebanon,
04:59militias in Iraq, and the Houthis in Yemen,
05:01the Islamic Republic of Iran achieved strategic depth and deniable pressure on its enemies.
05:07However, proxy warfare is a double-edged sword.
05:09As you know, Iran's proxy armies are attacking Israel.
05:13At the same time, the United States has moved warships to the region.
05:17When those proxies escalate too far, the sponsor eventually inherits the consequences.
05:21Following the fallout of October 7th,
05:24that risk finally turned into a direct reality for Tehran.
05:27A short time ago, the U.S. military carried out
05:31massive precision strikes on the three key nuclear facilities in the Iranian regime.
05:38Nuclear brinkmanship.
05:40Nothing defined Khamenei's relationship with the West more than the regime's nuclear program.
05:45Framed by Khamenei as a, quote,
05:47moral duty and a symbol of anti-Western defiance,
05:50the program became the ultimate bargaining chip and the ultimate flashpoint.
05:54In early 2021, analysts estimated it could have taken Iran
05:58between nine months and two years to build a nuclear device.
06:01As negotiations stalled and sanctions intensified,
06:04the program became a symbol of resistance to some.
06:08But to the U.S. and Israel,
06:09it was a destabilizing threat that effectively painted a target on the regime's back.
06:14We have completed our very successful attack on the three nuclear sites in Iran,
06:19including the Fordos site, Natanz, and Esfahan.
06:24Internal repression.
06:26While Khamenei was defiant on the world stage, he faced growing pressure at home.
06:31From the Green Movement to the 2022 Masa Amini protests and recent economic unrest,
06:36the regime responded with increasing force.
06:38What we're witnessing at the moment is different.
06:41These protests are mainly led by women,
06:43and they have the support across the full spectrum of Iranian society.
06:48Executions rose and civil society constricted, creating a paradox.
06:53The regime looked powerful and defiant externally,
06:55but was becoming increasingly brittle internally.
06:58By 2026, the greatest threat to the Islamic Republic wasn't just an invasion.
07:03It was a crisis of legitimacy.
07:06Ayatollah Ali Khamenei today accused demonstrators of damaging public property
07:11to please the U.S. president.
07:14Strategic isolation.
07:15By early 2026, the walls were closing in.
07:19With Hamas and Hezbollah weakened and the IRGC facing decapitation strikes,
07:24the regime's untouchable status vanished.
07:26You said we're seeing the largest buildup of firepower in this region,
07:30and that says a lot since the invasion of Iraq in 2003.
07:35Deterrence only works if it's credible.
07:37And once the perimeter collapsed,
07:39the architect of the system became its greatest liability.
07:42The decision to target Khamenei wasn't just a symbolic gesture.
07:45It was a structural move to dismantle the very head of the regional resistance network.
07:50Iran's formerly supreme leader, Ayatollah Khamenei, is dead.
07:58Will the Muslim world erupt?
08:00The biggest question following the strike is what happens next.
08:04Many predicted that the death of the supreme leader would cause the Ummah to rise in a unified revolt.
08:09However, history suggests a different outcome.
08:12When Qasem Soleimani was killed in 2020,
08:15there were threats and outrage, but no regional uprising.
08:18While Soleimani was not a religious figure,
08:21Khamenei's perch as a Shia theocrat actually made him despised by Sunnis who resented the regime's meddling.
08:26The Muslim world is politically fragmented and strategically self-interested,
08:30with most governments prioritizing stability over avenging Tehran.
08:34While escalation is possible, a unified global revolt remains unlikely.
08:39The conclusion
08:40Ali Khamenei was more than just a religious leader.
08:43He was the architect of a geopolitical doctrine that reshaped the Middle East.
08:48Ayatollah Khamenei blamed the unrest, as he always did, on outsiders, Iran's old enemies, the U.S., and of course
08:56Israel.
08:57His death marks the end of an era, but what follows, whether it's collapse, consolidation,
09:02or a total recalibration of Iranian power, remains to be seen.
09:06The Islamic Republic's greatest shield was always uncertainty.
09:10Now that the world has tested that shield, everyone is watching to see what emerges from the dust.
09:15Combat operations continue at this time in full force, and they will continue until all of our objectives are achieved.
09:23What are your thoughts on these recent events?
09:25Let us know in the comments.
09:26Let us know in the comments.
09:27Let us know in the comments.
09:29Let us know in the comments.
09:30Let us know in the comments.
09:31Let us know in the comments.
09:31Let us know in the comments.
09:32Let us know in the comments.
09:32Let us know in the comments.
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