- 6 months ago
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00:00Welcome back. We are joined today by Professor Jeffrey Sachs to discuss the war being launched in Iran.
00:08We see that CNN reported that a deal was within reach, and then a few hours later, Israel and the
00:16U.S. attacked Iran.
00:18And, well, attacks are reported to have been carried out across Iran, and Iran is now retaliating in a very
00:25big way,
00:26hitting American military bases and targets across the region.
00:30We see attacks on Bahrain, Qatar, Kuwait, United Arab Emirates, Jordan, Iraq, perhaps Saudi Arabia,
00:38and, of course, striking several cities in Israel.
00:41I was wondering how you read the situation. What are the objectives of the United States?
00:46And how do you explain the, I guess, fierce response from the Iranians?
00:51Well, the objective is stated. It's a regime change. This has been an Israeli dream for 30 years.
01:01Israel has caused war across the Middle East using the U.S. and using its effective ownership of Washington,
01:12which Israel does own for a variety of reasons, in wars that stretch from Libya, Sudan, Somalia, Gaza,
01:22the West Bank, Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, Yemen, and Iran has always been the big prize.
01:31So this is part of a long-term plan of Israel. The plan is Israeli military hegemony in the region
01:42backed by the United States.
01:45The basic goal is Israeli dominance through its nuclear arms and the backing of the United States,
01:54the suppression of the Arab world, and, effectively, the expulsion of Russia and China from the region.
02:03So this is a geopolitical move. This is, of course, an attempt to overthrow Iran, but it's part of a
02:12larger picture.
02:14The United States is fighting to this moment for global hegemony. Have no doubt about it.
02:20This is part of a world war that the U.S. is waging. And the war comes in Venezuela.
02:29The war is going to come to Cuba or is already in Cuba. Yesterday, the president said that the U
02:37.S. would make a friendly takeover of Cuba.
02:40The war is in the Middle East. Europe is already a vassal region of the United States.
02:46So this is the U.S. attempting, even in what is actually a multipolar world, to maintain its global hegemony.
02:57Of course, when you operate with such extraordinary violence, recklessness, lies, and delusion,
03:08the results can be completely catastrophic. So we're in the first hours of something that will have chain reactions
03:16across the world. I don't believe this will go well. I think that this is extraordinarily dangerous.
03:27By the way, the United States is a non-constitutional regime ruled by a small gang, by Trump and the
03:38gang.
03:39There's no congressional authorization. There's no legal basis for any of this.
03:46Israel is itself near civil war. The Arab states are unpopular. Let's put it that way.
03:55European governments are all unpopular with the leaders that command 10% to 20% approval ratings.
04:04So this is a war with a tremendous amount of political instability in the warring nations.
04:14Things can crack anywhere. My point is, this is not for any of the reasons alleged that there was some
04:23imminent threat from Iran. Exactly the opposite. As the Omani mediator said repeatedly, including after
04:31the launch of the war, the negotiations were proceeding, making progress and proceeding in an orderly way.
04:39I speak frequently with the Iranians. They were not only ready to negotiate, they already negotiated 10 years ago, all
04:47of these arrangements.
04:48So this is nothing about imminent threat, provocations or nuclear weapons. Actually, this is just about hegemony and regime change.
04:59Regional hegemony by Israel and global hegemony by the United States.
05:06Yes. All these comments about Iran in threat, nuclear weapons, helping protesters, freedom. You probably saw Trump's war speech this
05:16morning.
05:17I think it's, uh, yeah, it's, it's, it's quite, um, extraordinary because it does say a lot about what Marco
05:24Rubio spoke recently about, uh, the need to restore the dominance of the West.
05:28And, uh, I think you're spot on the, uh, there's a lot of uncertainty and insecurity at the moment with,
05:34uh, relative decline.
05:36Um, so, but the negotiation...
05:38If I could just say, uh, if, if I might just add, there's a, you know, an old movie, I'm
05:45sure a lot of people have seen it, uh, the wizard of Oz famous movie, uh, where, uh, at the
05:51end of the movie, uh, the, the great wizard is exposed, uh, as, uh, the little dog pulls
05:56the curtain back and shows that it's, uh, just an old man speaking into, uh, into a megaphone.
06:03The odd part about, uh, American propaganda these days is that the curtain was pulled back long ago.
06:11Uh, in fact, last month, our treasury secretary, who's a kind of a thug, uh, explained that the aim of
06:22us policy last year was to crush the
06:24Iranian economy and bring people out onto the streets.
06:29He explained it step-by-step.
06:31He said, uh, last, uh, March, uh, Trump gave an order for maximal pressure.
06:37The idea was to bring down the currency.
06:39He said in December, this worked, uh, banks failed.
06:44There was a dollar shortage.
06:46The currency collapsed.
06:47People were suffering.
06:48They came out on the streets.
06:50And he said, things are going in a very good direction.
06:54So the curtain was pulled back.
06:56This isn't protests against a regime.
06:58This is an American regime change operation.
07:02The propaganda is so brazen.
07:05They don't care whether they are believed or not.
07:09Really.
07:10Uh, they just care that they have a narrative.
07:14And this is the situation that we're in right now.
07:17There was no threat.
07:20There has been an attempt to bring the regime to its knees economically.
07:26The negotiations were phony because both last year and this year, when the negotiations were
07:33making progress, the U S attacked.
07:35This is a premeditated aggression without any justification of the kind that the U S government
07:44gave.
07:45This is just, uh, a, it doesn't even have the, uh, it doesn't even have the moral, uh, veneer
07:55of being a covert regime change operation.
07:59Most of the time, the United States, uh, acts violently, uh, repulsively, but it pretends
08:08that it's not the U S that's doing it.
08:11So most U S regime change operations are covert here.
08:16They don't care.
08:18Uh, the brazenness, maybe it may be Trump's megalomania and personal psychological instability.
08:27Uh, it may be the, uh, need for, uh, the United States to feel that it has to reset dominance.
08:36Uh, but it's not hidden and every explanation given is a transparent lie.
08:46The explanation is clear, uh, that Israel is supposed to run the middle East dominated,
08:53uh, be greater Israel, our own ambassador to, uh, the middle East, uh, Mike Huckabee, uh, who
09:03represents the Christian Zionists in the United States, uh, uh, the roughly 20% of American,
09:09uh, who are fundamentalist evangelical Protestants, uh, said it's all Israel's to take.
09:18God gave it to them.
09:19Uh, so this is another part of the story.
09:23Was he reprimanded for saying that?
09:25No, I'm sure there were cheers in the white house for that.
09:28No reprimands whatsoever.
09:31The Arab world is very sad in this.
09:34Uh, the Arab world has been essentially, uh, under, uh, Imperial rules since 1517.
09:43Uh, since the Ottoman, uh, conquests of, uh, Arab lands.
09:47And so the Arabs were under, uh, Ottoman rule for centuries.
09:52Then they were under British rule.
09:54Uh, now they're under, uh, U S and Israeli rule.
09:57Uh, they're pretty much supine.
10:00Uh, they don't dare speak.
10:02They have American military bases, uh, all over their territories.
10:06Uh, they, they're occupied lands basically.
10:10Um, and they're, uh, just go along with this.
10:15It's all very dangerous and very sad.
10:20But what do you see, see being possible, why the ramifications and because, well, you
10:25mentioned Huckabee, he, he can state openly that, uh, Israel can take half the Middle East
10:30if he wants to.
10:31That's okay.
10:31I mean, this is the country that's, uh, essentially the security provider for all these countries,
10:37which are now threatened by that same power.
10:40And, um, now we see U S allies across the region being attacked.
10:44What, what is, this is not great for American credibility.
10:48You know, the idea that it's all powerful, if, uh, America fails in this endeavor to destroy
10:53Iran or the regime change, this could be the same thing.
10:57Well, what are the, what are the consequences?
11:00Because this efforts to restore U S dominance, it appears that the U S bet everything on it.
11:05Uh, well, what happens if it fails?
11:08Cause there's a lot of things that can go wrong here.
11:10Uh, it will fail one way or another because 4% of the world cannot run the world.
11:16Uh, and so the premise of this is, uh, the same premise, uh, as the British empire, uh,
11:24at the end of the 19th century.
11:25Uh, I recently read, uh, a speech given by Joseph Chamberlain, who was head of the colonial
11:31office in 1897, saying that Britain would dominate the world as far as the eye can see.
11:37And of course, 50 years later, there was no British empire anymore.
11:42This will happen with the United States.
11:44Uh, this is a, an end game.
11:47It's not a true assertion of global hegemony, but, uh, it's the same arrogance today.
11:54And generally these wars, uh, and this has a very good chance of becoming a world war, uh, in effect.
12:03Uh, God help us if it turns nuclear, cause that's the end of the world.
12:08Uh, but a, a world war, uh, by some accounts, it's already happening because there are interconnected
12:17wars in all regions of the world right now where, uh, the United States is, uh, meddling.
12:23Uh, but again, the U S cannot run the world.
12:28Uh, it has, uh, neither the economic nor technological nor military dominance to do
12:35that, uh, nor does the rest of the world want to be run by the United States.
12:40Uh, there's no way that the United States can impose a stable pro U S regime in Iran.
12:49It's not possible.
12:51We're not in 1953 when, uh, the MI6 and CIA, uh, did that and imposed a police state in Iran.
13:00This will not happen, uh, Iran internally its own civil society, whether they back the current
13:08government or not, doesn't matter.
13:10Uh, this is a country of a hundred million people, a 5,000 year history, and it's not going to
13:16be run
13:16by the United States or Israel with no boots on the ground, uh, by a proxy, uh, from thousands
13:23of miles away.
13:25So the U S has stepped into shit today, if I could put it bluntly.
13:30Uh, and we don't know what will transpire.
13:34Uh, maybe, uh, they'll kill a lot of people in the next few days and declare a great success.
13:39Uh, reportedly they've killed 40 school girls, uh, already in a bombing, uh, in, uh, uh, outside
13:47of Tehran.
13:48Uh, but there's no way that it can actually achieve strategic objectives in the long term.
13:55The United States itself is not stable enough to achieve that.
14:00Trump is a highly unpopular figure.
14:04Of course, a profoundly deep, uh, polarizing figure.
14:09His approval rating will, will fall for sure in the coming months.
14:15So sometimes with an attack, it blips up.
14:18I don't even think that will happen here, uh, because the American public was steadfastly
14:23against this.
14:24We're entering our own elections in November that Trump may try to subvert, uh, because
14:30he is openly talking about, uh, federalizing or nationalizing the elections, which would
14:36mean, uh, massive fraud.
14:39Uh, and, um, so this is a very unstable and, uh, a trigger or a fuse to better say it
14:48better.
14:49A fuse was lit, uh, that will have, uh, consequences of war in many regions of the world.
14:57Think of, uh, also, uh, Pakistan, uh, a nuclear power, uh, in open war with, uh, Afghanistan
15:06right now.
15:07What does that mean?
15:09Where did that come from?
15:10What is the U.S. role in this?
15:12Uh, I would suspect the U.S. role is quite real, uh, in this, in fact.
15:16Uh, so I think that there is, uh, a lot that is, uh, very destabilizing in this.
15:24And the idea that this is a 12 day war, uh, and a, uh, new Iranian regime comes in that
15:30loves Israel and the United States, uh, is, uh, a fantasy.
15:36How do you view the, the response by America's allies?
15:42Because, uh, only, um, short time ago, uh, we saw the prime minister of Canada, uh, Carney,
15:48say that, you know, the rules-based order was always a bit of a fraud.
15:53That is, uh, we have several set of rules and we seem to apply whatever we want.
15:57Uh, you know, essentially growing a spine to stand up to the U.S.
16:02Not so much anymore.
16:03He seems to be all on board with this war.
16:05We have the European Union, uh, you know, they've been tweeting out, uh, nothing that can
16:10even be interpreted as a criticism of the United States, not one critical comment.
16:15So how, and this is again, after the U.S. is also has its eyes on set on the EU
16:22territory.
16:23How, how, how do you make sense of this?
16:25Uh, why is this, this just a pure obedience or this is hatred for Iran or where are the
16:34principles?
16:34Uh, who, where's the rules?
16:36Where's the international law?
16:37This was, this was supposed to be the benefit.
16:40Uh, we're told after the Cold War about, uh, the hegemony of the West.
16:45That is where we're going to have international rules, principles, values elevated above brutal
16:51power politics.
16:52Yet here we are.
16:54There's not one critical comment.
16:57No, I haven't seen a critical comment yet.
17:00Uh, Kayakalas, uh, exposes, uh, uh, Brussels, uh, again, as almost, uh, fascistic, by the way.
17:08Uh, the attack is, uh, on Iran, uh, not on, uh, the United States for launching, uh, a premeditated,
17:16uh, aggression, not a word about that.
17:20Uh, Carney, uh, frankly shocks me, uh, today, uh, extremely disappointing.
17:25Uh, of course, I've only read one statement.
17:28I don't know, uh, uh, the full, uh, uh, context, but from what I read, at least, uh, Carney backed
17:37the
17:37United States, Australia backed the United States.
17:41Now, I think what is true, uh, is that if you add up the populations of the United States
17:48and Canada and Britain, uh, and, uh, European Union, uh, and Australia, uh, we can do it, uh,
17:58uh, 380, 450, another 450, 900, uh, it's, uh, maybe a billion people, uh, that you reach,
18:09uh, in, uh, the count of, uh, uh, the, the white person's world, if I could put it that way,
18:16the Western world, uh, which, uh, is all enthusiastic in its, uh, attack on Iran today.
18:22That's about, uh, uh, 12 and a half percent of the world population.
18:29Uh, so, uh, we hear that because this is, uh, our Western world.
18:34Uh, the Western world dominates, uh, the media, especially the English language media,
18:40but I don't think that it is, uh, at all representative, uh, of, uh, the world, uh,
18:47opinion, but it is shocking. It is the basic idea of the United States that Europe is a, a vassal
18:56region
18:57and doesn't have to be worried about, uh, and van der Leyen and Callas are, are vassals.
19:03Uh, they're useless, uh, spokespeople for, uh, U.S. interests. Uh, Canada had shown a, a glimmer of
19:15independence, uh, but, uh, apparently it lost that, uh, again today. Australia, it doesn't surprise me.
19:22Uh, this is, uh, part of, uh, the British, uh, the British world, uh, and, uh, that really doesn't,
19:30uh, surprise me. Um, there's a lot of anti-Muslim hatred. Uh, there's a lot of, uh, anti-Iran hatred.
19:39Maybe it goes back to, uh, Herodotus, uh, and, uh, the Persian wars. Uh, but, uh, this is, uh, uh,
19:47these are stereotypes that are absolutely grotesque, but real. Uh, there's a lot of ignorance, uh, in, uh,
19:54the white world, uh, about the rest of the world. And, um, that's what we're seeing right now.
20:01There's also a very strong Zionist hold over these governments. Uh, these governments are
20:09suborned by Israel. They're blackmailed by Israel. They're bribed by Israel. Uh, they have weapon
20:17systems and intelligence, uh, activities with Israel. They use Pegasus and other, uh, spy, uh,
20:25materials. So there's a military industrial alliance that is at work here. That's also very
20:31powerful in which Israel is, is actually a protagonist, uh, not just, uh, uh, another member
20:37of the U S hegemonic club. So part of this is pro Israel. Uh, and it's the domestic politics.
20:45When Trump gave his, uh, state of the union speech, there was one standing ovation in the
20:51Congress. Uh, and that's when he talked about how evil Iran was. The U S Congress is owned and operated
20:59by the Zionist lobby. Uh, that's not an exaggeration. That's just a literal fact. Every congressman can
21:08explain it to you. Uh, if they deviate from the lobby, uh, they will face retribution.
21:15Uh, they will face, uh, primary opponents. They will face, uh, vilification. Uh, if they go with
21:23the Israel lobby, they get treats and trips and benefits and campaign contributions, uh, and the
21:31like. And so this is a, and it's linked to the CIA Mossad and the military industrial complex,
21:38which is pervasively powerful. It runs the United States. Actually, we don't have a democratic,
21:44uh, constitutional system. We have a military industrial complex, which runs American foreign
21:51policy in the world. And that's deeply integrated, uh, with, uh, Israel in this. So this is another
21:59reason, uh, for, uh, what we're observing right now, but the shock that you get a brazen,
22:10premeditated, extraordinarily violent and vulgar attack on Iran. And Europe jumps up and says,
22:18right on, uh, and Canada and Australia, uh, and, uh, I'm sure a few others shows the kind of world
22:27that we're in right now. Uh, there is, uh, currently no principle and Trump also wants to prove that,
22:35uh, that, uh, this is the world of gangsters and he wants to be gangster number one.
22:42So how severe is it? I mean, you say the internationally, the, obviously, obviously,
22:48this could set the whole world on fire, given that this impacts every corner of the world,
22:52it seems. Uh, but, uh, but, but what will it do within the United States as well? Is it,
22:58there's already a division between the MAGA crowd who, you know, who don't like that Israel is put
23:05before America? So Israel first instead of America first, I guess, uh, a failed and, uh,
23:11humiliating war in Iran who definitely play into this, even a successful one would, uh,
23:17but it would be very difficult to absorb a failure, it seems. And, uh, but, uh, on the,
23:21on the international level, could this, could this spiral out of control into world war three? How,
23:26how, I mean, how, what we, it's too early, of course, war only began a few hours ago, but,
23:33uh, what are the path possible pathways you see here?
23:39The theory, uh, is that, um, Iran will be decapitated. Uh, the, uh, massive attacks, uh,
23:46will subdue, uh, Iran in a short order, uh, and, uh, all will be quiet soon. Trump will declare a
23:54triumph. Uh, he will be, uh, a hero, uh, and, uh, things will go on. That's the US, uh, view.
24:03Uh, it's possible. Uh, you might put that at 5% or 10%. No operation that, uh, the US has
24:12undertaken
24:13of this sort has been like that, uh, anywhere for decades. Uh, this is the theory of the US overthrowing
24:23Assad in, uh, 2011. Uh, it actually lasted 15 years. Uh, this is the theory of the US overthrowing
24:34Muammar Gaddafi in 2011. Uh, that civil war continues till today. Uh, this is the theory of, uh, overthrowing
24:42the Sudanese, uh, government. Uh, that now has two civil wars, one in Sudan and one in South Sudan. Uh,
24:51this is, uh, the theory of the Iraq war that shock and awe, uh, would, uh, lead to quiet. And
24:58it did
24:59mission accomplished, uh, remember. Uh, and then it led to, uh, years and years of instability. Uh,
25:06this is the theory of, uh, the, uh, occupation of Afghanistan, uh, which lasted 20 years in failure.
25:15Uh, this time there are not even planned to be troops on the ground. Uh, how is the United States
25:23going to run, uh, Iran from afar? Uh, there is no answer to that. So we will, uh, have the,
25:34um, usual
25:36differences of very short term triumphant announcements, uh, in the next, uh, 48 hours. Uh,
25:44and then, uh, we'll hear a lot of propaganda in the next two weeks. Uh, and then we'll see repercussions
25:52of this for many, many years. The repercussions I think are bound to be destabilizing. I don't see
26:00how this can possibly be stabilizing in any way. I don't see how the objectives could actually be
26:08fulfilled in any way there. I give almost zero probability to a strategic win. Uh, again,
26:19the strategic win from a U S point of view and an Israel point of view would be installing a
26:26new
26:26Shah of Iran, a new police state in Iran, uh, as was installed between 1953 and 1979.
26:35Uh, but I think the chance of that is zero. You know, let's talk about freedom and democracy,
26:42given that we just installed Jolani and his ISIS senchmen in Syria. It's not very good.
26:47But I think we should be very clear. There's not even a pretense about democracy. This has nothing to
26:54do with democracy. We don't have it in the United States. We don't have it in Israel. We don't have
26:59it
27:00really in the Western world anymore. We have some trappings of democracy, but we've already become
27:06militarized States. And in the United States, this is certainly true. Our system of government
27:14is constitutional. It says Congress has the power to declare war. We just had a war declared by one
27:23person in the middle of the night against public opinion. So we are not a democracy. We have trappings
27:31of that, but so too did the Roman empire. They still had senators in togas, but it was an empire
27:40and it
27:40was not a Republic. And so this is the reality that we're in right now. But by the way, this
27:48is not a
27:49stable imperium in the United States. It's very unstable and the divisions internally are very
27:57large. So again, the time horizon is critical here. What happens in days or weeks can be very different
28:05from what happens over the course of a few years. But Trump lit a fuse, which is completely explosive
28:13and it will explode in many places in the world. And it's not going to come back to stability in
28:24a day
28:24or a month, no matter what happens in the very short term. Trump lit a fuse that will absolutely end
28:33with
28:33the end of the US as it is right now in its hegemony. Uh, and I think probably, uh, eventually
28:44the end of
28:44Israel as it is also, uh, within the next decade or two. Uh, this is an explosion that was set
28:51off today
28:51that is very big and is not going to be put down in, uh, some, uh, quick decapitation strike, uh,
29:00in a
29:00regime change operation. Yeah. I was on a judge Napolitano last night and I was, he was asking me,
29:07asking me whether or not I think the war would happen. And I said, uh, there was strong arguments
29:12for why it would happen because the U S sent too many assets to be just simply pulled back. There'd
29:17been too much chest beating to simply pull back. And of course, Israel wouldn't permit, uh, a peace,
29:22which would allow, uh, Iran to essentially have the pressure moved. Uh, but on the, but on the other
29:29hand, I was making the point that, uh, uh, the case for peace would be that there's no pathway here.
29:35It's too crazy. There's no strategy, no story. You can tell how this is going to be a success.
29:41Essentially it will predictably set the world on fire. And this would be,
29:45this is what was my argument for why perhaps this war might not happen. But, uh, yeah, I guess I,
29:51I was wrong on this, uh, that, well, that it did happen, but it's us. It doesn't make,
29:56any sense that that that's why I, I had a hard time believing you would actually go through with this.
30:01I mean, you, you, you and I, and people who, uh, think, uh, uh, with reason, uh, and, uh, consequences,
30:09uh, would say, no, this could not, uh, exist. Uh, when I woke up this morning in New York,
30:15uh, I turned on the news. I was dumbfounded the same way. Uh, even with the timing with the Omani,
30:24uh, mediator saying, uh, late last night, good progress being made. Uh, we'll meet, uh, in Vienna
30:31next week. Uh, but I think the war machine in the United States and Israel is extremely powerful.
30:41This is a kind of fascism, uh, in a, with, with a different face, but it's very powerful.
30:47And when, uh, the, the only president in my whole lifetime that tried to stop it was president
30:55Kennedy in 1963 and the CIA killed him after that. And that's one message, uh, also, uh, to presidents,
31:03uh, that, uh, has lasted since then. Uh, this is a war machine. You are a temporary occupant of office.
31:10Uh, and, uh, you just, uh, watch yourself.
31:15Well, Jeffrey Sachs, thank you as always for taking the time. I really hope that, uh,
31:21Trump will, uh, see that this is a massive failure and just to make the claim that Iran called
31:29they're ready to do new serious negotiations, some BS, which is usually good at and get an early stop to
31:35this because Glenn, uh, even more than Trump, who I give no, uh, hope for if the rest of the
31:41world
31:42would raise their voice on the basic principle that war can end everything. And that the reason
31:49we have the United nations and article two paragraph four, that says that it is illegal to threaten the
31:58use of force or to use force against any UN member state. If they would abide by that principle, which
32:04was established in 1945 to prevent what just happened and to stop it after it happens. This is our hope.
32:13The hope is not Trump. The hope is not Net Yahoo. The hope is not from inside the United States.
32:19The hope is that most of the world, maybe not the vassal states of the United States,
32:26but most of the world will say this is completely outrageous, dangerous, and illegal. This is,
32:35I know it seems like a vain hope, but, um, it's the one that I think is the, uh, the
32:41only path right
32:43now to getting this, uh, turned off. Well, don't expect a peep from the Europeans at least. I know.
32:50This is quite new levels of spinelessness and lack of principles, uh, day by day. So indeed,
32:58thank you very much for taking the time and, uh, let's hope, uh, this does not get out of control.
33:04Yeah. Thank you.
33:05Thanks.
33:13Thanks.