00:00Let's next talk to Anil Trugunayat, who's the former Indian ambassador to Jordan, Libya and Malta.
00:07Mr. Ambassador, welcome. Given your extensive diplomatic experience,
00:11does Ayatollah Khamenei's death make de-escalation more likely because a chapter has closed
00:17or more dangerous because his succession looks rather uncertain?
00:25Well, to answer this question, it's simply that there will be no de-escalation at this stage.
00:31As we have seen this morning, Ali Larzani telling that they're not even ready for talks,
00:36even though the foreign minister, Aragachi, apparently had sent some signals
00:41that if the United States was serious about talks.
00:43Problem is, whenever the talks reach at a certain level of comfort,
00:48then you have these kind of attacks that happen and that derail the whole process.
00:53And this time, the decapitation of or killing of Khamenei has really added a very different complexity to it.
01:04And therefore, what we are seeing in the region and not only against the U.S. directly or the Israel
01:10directly,
01:11but the countries in between who were trying to have some kind of an objective view
01:16and neutrality in that sense of not siding one over the other have also come in the line of fire.
01:22So this has become far more complex, complicated and very difficult to retract at this stage
01:27unless the United States stands to withdraw from here, which is very unlikely
01:33because Israel is still going strong and wants to attack and decapitate
01:38because, see, the main objective of the United States and Israel combined was to have a regime change.
01:45Now, regime change is not possible by simply removing one leader.
01:49There is a whole complex relationships and the structure there in the country.
01:54They've already got an interim council
01:56and they are going to have the Guardian Council decide on who's going to be the next Khamenei, Ayatollah.
02:03Now, if that happens, then obviously the regime has not gone.
02:06The regime has not gone means the ideology will remain.
02:09If the ideology remains, then U.S. may like to have some kind of an accommodation with them,
02:14but Israel would not want because it would consider to perceive these threats
02:18which have been continuing through this MAD syndrome since 1979.
02:23So I don't see the way out of it at this stage until and unless the whole world stands against
02:29this
02:30and Americans see some sense into it.
02:32Very briefly, Iran says it's targeting United States bases and assets across the Middle East.
02:39I mean, how likely is spillover into Iraq and Syria where you've seen instability at close quarters?
02:49Well, there have been some attacks even in Syria and Iraq.
02:51We have seen that.
02:53But at the same time, there are pro-Shiya elements and the pro-Iranian elements in Iraq
02:59as well as in Lebanon, which are, or Syria for that matter.
03:03They have all risen because of this fury that they feel because of Ayatollah being eliminated.
03:10So obviously that's going to be there.
03:12But I find it very difficult because Iran, what action it has taken at the moment,
03:17is perceived, I mean, probably against the U.S. assets.
03:22But the assets are in the sovereign territory of the Gulf countries.
03:26And if the Gulf countries also march towards against Iran,
03:31then the situation will become far more complex going forward.
03:35Mr. Ambassador, I'm grateful to you for your time and your experience.
03:38It's Anil Truganayat, the former Indian ambassador to Jordan, Libya and Malta.
03:43.
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