00:00Let's get to the regular season in Major League Baseball and the champion of the regular season.
00:05Most people think it's going to be those Los Angeles Dodgers here trading on Cal State at 32% here.
00:10You take a look at a chance for Seattle at 11% and the New York Yankees at 9%.
00:14The question is always going to be, Joe, when do you jump in on the Dodgers or you actually fade
00:19the Dodgers?
00:21Yeah, I mean, 162-game season is a war of attrition, Donnie.
00:25We know that with injuries and bullpen issues and scheduling slumps and, I mean, anything is possible.
00:34But I'm sorry.
00:35I mean, this is another one of those markets where I am looking to short the Dodgers at this price.
00:42Classic value investing.
00:44You never buy an asset at its absolute ceiling before the season ever begins.
00:49There's just too much variance in 162-game season to figure that they are just once again going to have
00:56the most wins when it's all said and done.
00:59And by the way, also, Joe is right about this, too, because the contracts that we talk about here when
01:03you open them up, you don't have to ride this out for the majority of the season.
01:05I mean, the Dodgers could be the most profitable team in baseball here and say, wait a second, what do
01:09you mean, Donnie?
01:09They didn't win anything here.
01:10Well, if they're so far and away the leaders in the month of August heading into September, you can cash
01:14out that contract already with plus money in your pocket.
01:17But understand this, too.
01:19The Dodgers are such a favorite that you're getting extreme discounts, Joe, in the National League.
01:23You take a look at teams like the New York Mets trading at 7 percent, Atlanta trading at 6 percent,
01:27the Philadelphia Phillies at 6 percent, and even the Cubs revamped their roster at 5 percent.
01:31Joe, you can take out a contract on either one of those teams here, and if any one of those
01:35actually win the championship here and knock off the Dodgers, that's an extreme profit in your pocket here.
01:41I agree.
01:42I mean, we know come October, Donnie, it's the most chaotic.
01:46It's the postseason baseball, high variance, wildcard teams consistently get hot, eliminate the teams that you think are just going
01:56to run the table, and I don't know, call me crazy here.
01:59I think maybe the Yankees and maybe even a team like the Braves might be worth an investment because you
02:06don't have to see it through, but they may get hot enough in order to be able to increase that
02:11bankroll.
02:12And how many times have we seen it, Joe?
02:14It's really about that team that's going to get hot in late September and carry it over into the playoffs
02:18because those early rounds, the three games, the five games, not the seven games, those are the ones that can
02:22do some damage here, and we see some of those upsets.
02:24I'll tell you, he's not going to be pulling very many upsets here, Joe.
02:27Worst record in professional baseball this year.
02:29Is it any surprise?
02:30It's the Colorado Rockies.
02:31They're trading, Joe, at 60%.
02:33The next team in line is the Washington Nationals at 15%, followed by the Angels at 12%, and there's the
02:38Chicago White Sox at 9%.
02:40These teams feel like they'll be lucky to get the 60 wins, but Colorado feels like the white flag, Joe,
02:45up already.
02:46Yeah, but regression works both ways, Donnie, right?
02:50I mean, you know how difficult it is for a major league franchise to lose 115-plus games in back
02:56-to-back seasons?
02:58To me, I think the White Sox is the value here at that price.
03:02They're still in a massive multi-year rebuild and have proven that they are capable of historic failure, Donnie, on
03:10a lot of levels.
03:11I'm investing in the White Sox at that price.
03:13I am looking to short Colorado, Donnie.
03:17I'm sorry.
03:17Paying that kind of price on a premium for a team to be the worst in a bad business for
03:23what?
03:24Two years in a row?
03:26I'm not buying it here.
03:27I think positive regression coming for Colorado.
03:31Let's go heads to tails here, Joe, and take a look at the best record in professional baseball.
03:35We just told you the Dodgers probably are going to win the World Series, at least trading like they should
03:38do that.
03:39It's a different animal here from the regular season to the postseason.
03:41Much harder to win the championship because it's more of a sprint here.
03:44But over the summer, Joe, talent does win out.
03:47Depth does win out.
03:48And by the way, the Dodgers last year did not have the best overall record in baseball.
03:51That was the Brewers.
03:52But they're trading at 61% right now, Joe, to have the best record in baseball.
03:56$100 investment on Cal State.
03:58We'll pay you back $164.
03:59I actually do believe the Dodgers will have the best record in baseball.
04:03Will they win the championship?
04:04That's a different story.
04:05Well, the problem is, at that price, Donnie, you're telling me they're going to sleepwalk to 105 or more wins.
04:13And we know, just like last year, I don't see that happening either.
04:17I mean, anything, again, 162-game season is an absolute war of attrition.
04:24And too many injuries, too many issues come in.
04:27I think paying $0.61, $0.62, you're assuming perfect health for aging superstar, let's face the core of the
04:38Dodgers right now, the Freemans of the world.
04:41Anything is possible.
04:43I still think there's value down the board here.
04:46I think Seattle's got value.
04:48I think the Yankees have value.
04:50I think the American League has value here.
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