00:00the trial was set up scarlet to test one drug against the other and it failed right so that's
00:06you you when they start these trials they have a hypothesis we think our drug is as good at this
00:12one and they set the hypothesis up they do the right number of patients to prove that kagrysema
00:18is as good as teres appetite it didn't prove that what it does i mean i don't really care
00:23about these 23 25 a lot of people are happy with the weight loss they get and they maintain
00:29the weight loss that's what they care about this rapid weight loss a very large weight loss may
00:34matter for much more obese patients potentially but the reality is this is handed the gift to eli
00:41lily now once this date is published they can go out there and say well look we've beaten we govi
00:48we've beaten the next generation drug they've got at least on weight loss on the surface what happens
00:54to muscle loss and all that sort of stuff will come out or peripheral fat versus visceral fat etc
00:59we've beaten them is the drug to take and they should be able to sell as much as they can
01:04make
01:05so which is kind of what's been going on already all right thank you for explaining that it's the
01:09the relative effectiveness and in this case uh giving eli lily an easy win um why is it that nova
01:15nordisk
01:16has lost so much ground and its edge to eli lily does it come down to the science of it
01:20or is there
01:21something culturally at the company that's led to this underperformance yeah i can't speak to the
01:28culture to be honest with you i mean this has been a phenomenal story for years right they were the
01:34pioneers in obesity they in in diabetes with this class of drugs they brought for obesity they have a
01:41lot to upload for them for the point is all these companies take calculated risks back in 2015-16
01:50lily took a calculated risk to try this new molecule a glp1 attached to it a gip let's forget what
01:57they
01:57are but they're two different ways of modulating the system and nobody thought that gip would do what
02:02it did so they were lucky uh they threw the dice and they got the right answer or they just
02:08had a
02:08very clever biology person said i disagree with the rest of the world gip will do this so they ended
02:13up
02:13with a supercharged product and then of course nova never went down that road even since 2018 when we
02:19all saw the first data went wow there's a whole bunch of other companies who did this we have a
02:24list
02:25that we keep not novo they put their dice or they put their money on this combination amylin a lot
02:32of
02:32people have too but so it hasn't worked out it's just the way that drug development goes in six years
02:38time you might find that some mechanism they've got starts to beat what uh lily has but we don't see
02:43that at the minute and we haven't got any sight on those things well karen from the jersey shore
02:49writes in and says she is a huge fan of we govi worked just great uh sam here we go
02:54merc splitting
02:56its main pharmaceutical unit in two as it prepares for the approaching patent expiry of its best selling
03:02drug what's going on here yeah so there's one other company that does this and it's been one of the
03:07you
03:07plot the chart share charts and you go wow that's pretty cool and that's astrazeneca astrazeneca has for
03:13a long time had a division it's a person responsible for oncology business and responsible
03:21for oncology drug development that's always been there i think they recognized they had assets
03:26and that oncology drug development is quite different to every other area here's merck not
03:31doing the same thing is it suggesting that they because of the number of drugs that they've got coming
03:37some in oncology some elsewhere it's better to have two units that look after these two things
03:42especially in the rnd side i think they're doing the right thing i don't think it tells us much
03:47about separating the reporting lines and all that sort of stuff or the pnl look of things i think it's
03:53much more to do with making sure that they're going to get the best chance in in the specialty pharma
03:59as they call and oncology and i think that's the right call to make by them does it lead to
04:05a formal
04:06spinoff where you might have two publicly traded companies or is this more like an internal division
04:10within the company yeah i doubt this is about a spinoff i mean who knows i'm not in the board
04:16of
04:17listening to the or even a fly on the wall and the thing is i don't think you need to
04:22go that far
04:22i think this just recognize reorganizing the business in a way that works best for the pipeline
04:27and i think that's the right thing to do especially if my colleague aud gersbacher and bernay hamilton
04:33are right that actually the intruder that people think is going to expire in terms of their patents in
04:382029 has another extra three years of cash flow or four years of cash flow to 2033 remember it's the
04:44biggest drug in the world if they're right in their patent analysis you know this really puts
04:49that oncology business in supercharged mode
04:51you
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