00:00I'll start with the big picture question really around risk appetite. I wonder if you felt was your risk appetite
00:05sort of comforted by what we heard yesterday from President Trump because it gave us a sense of his limits
00:11or are you less comforted today by some of the more some of the some of the other detail that
00:17we're dealing with in markets. Give us a sense of how your thoughts have moved on.
00:51It's very marginal because I would expect to talk to Trump to talk to to pull out. It was always
00:57a poor threat in the first place. So it's marginal. But from a week ago things are much worse. You
01:03know we've learned that Iran is greater range in their missiles. The that the way that Trump is flip flopping
01:08shows that Iran has much more power. It's being acknowledged that Iran controls when the state opens. That's why Trump
01:14made this ultimate made him that Iran must open it.
01:17You know Trump has pulled back from the narrative that they've destroyed Iran's Navy and they're fully in control and
01:22they've won the war. He's going please open it. We're desperate. So I think things are significantly worse than than
01:29a week ago.
01:29And what's worrying though is that investors remain extremely complacent. So the overall trend is getting worse. And yet investors
01:37remain very complacent. So look, I've been bearish the last three weeks. It's the worst month in global stocks in
01:41three and a half years.
01:42I still think it's going to get a lot worse over the next week or two because I am. I'm
01:46not a geopolitical expert, but there's no off ramp that I see is viable for Iran right now.
01:53And Mark, what do you make of this turnaround that we've seen in futures during this show? We started in
01:58the red. Now we're in the green on both sides of the Atlantic, even if those gains are somewhat paired.
02:04Yeah, I mean, look, there's some speculation going around on chatter at the moment. It shows the enthusiasm for markets
02:12to trade a positive narrative. I think everyone thinks that that the market should turn around when the US stops
02:19or on Israel stops bombing Iran.
02:21And the question is, is when the straight opens? And that's in Iran's control at the moment. I think that
02:27the slight gains we've seen since, you know, this time yesterday need to be put in context of where we've
02:33gone over the past month.
02:35As I said, it still remains, despite the bounce of the past 24 hours, despite the bounce since since Trump
02:40pulled back in his ultimatum. It's still the worst month in three and a half years for global stocks.
02:45But it gets to the point that I think that people are still complacent. Normally, after the sell off, you've
02:50seen this kind of month. The contrarian view would be to buy the dip right now.
02:55I actually think strangely and pretty unique in this environment that despite the sell off, the contrarian view is to
03:01remain bearish. And it's not because I know how the conflict ends.
03:04It's just that no one has articulated a coherent reason for why Iran would off ramp right now.
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