00:00Men's March Madness Final Four qualifiers.
00:03I'm taking a look at Calci right now.
00:04He said, what does that actually go into?
00:06You don't have to win the championship.
00:07You don't have to make it to the championship game.
00:09Just qualify and play in the Final Four, Joe.
00:12Michigan at a 57% chance right now, followed by Arizona, Duke, and Houston.
00:17Here's the interesting caveat, Joe, for Michigan who's the favorite right now.
00:20On February the 8th at 5 a.m., they were trading at 40%.
00:24Today, 57%.
00:26People like themselves some Michigan here.
00:29Well, Donnie, exactly.
00:31Because Michigan, it just vaulted themselves the number one in the AP poll this week.
00:36And after a whole lot of upsets from some of the other top teams.
00:40And we all know retail investors love to chase the shiny new toy, Donnie,
00:45driving Michigan up to a ridiculous 57 cents here.
00:50But look at Houston.
00:51Houston's currently ranked right around number two, right?
00:54And have almost an identical resume to what Michigan has.
00:58And yet the market has them priced fourth at 36 cents.
01:03So we got a 21 cent gap between the top two teams in the country.
01:08To me, Donnie, that screams short Michigan.
01:10Invest in Houston.
01:12Because paying 57 cents for any college basketball team to survive the variance of a single elimination tournament,
01:19to me, that's terrible asset management.
01:22And also understand this, Joe, that we know.
01:24We don't know the path to the Final Four right now.
01:26And you will get some teams like, wait a second, I'm supposed to be the number one overall seed.
01:29I got to play these two teams before I even get to the Final Four.
01:32That's going to creep up.
01:33But if you are looking for valuations here that you might get a better price on, Joe,
01:37sometimes I take a look at some of those depressed conference.
01:39The ACC isn't great.
01:41But Virginia, Joe, trading at only 6% right now, a $100 investment, pays back $16.67.
01:48And Joe will tell you as well as I will each and every week.
01:50The goal sometimes, Joe, not even to get to the Final Four.
01:54Just take a team you think is going to close the season well,
01:56pick up some wins in the conference tournament,
01:58and possibly in the NCAA tournament, win a game or two,
02:01and all of a sudden your contract, Joe, looks so much better than it currently does.
02:05It does, Annie, and it's all, again, buy low, sell high, right?
02:09That's our entire goal in this situation here.
02:13But overpaying at this point in the game with so much variance still available
02:19and we all know is going to happen is just not a smart way to approach this.
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