Exploring Predictive Markets in Men's March Madness

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Transcript

00:00Koushi Markets here. Let's have some fun with those predictive markets today, Joe.

00:04A couple topics to deal with. A little bit of basketball here.

00:06Topic number one, men's March Madness round of 64 qualifiers.

00:11Now, here's the interesting part.

00:13There's a couple teams that are left out in here as I'm scrolling through, Joe, and I don't know why.

00:17So let me take a look at more markets and see if everybody pops up.

00:21And guess what? I have Indiana as the favorite here listed at 78% as a chance,

00:27which means if they make March Madness, you lay your money down now.

00:30A hundred bucks pays back $129.

00:32But why don't I see like teams like, I don't know, Duke involved?

00:35Is that just because there's no market and they're listed at just 100% even though it's not here, Joe?

00:40I need to know why I can't bet Duke even if it's going to return me back 50 cents.

00:45Yeah, well, apparently, Donnie, I think even Cal, she knows at this point.

00:49Like, yeah, we're basically – what it should be, Donnie, is that is it Duke or the field?

00:54Because that's kind of exactly the direction everyone seems to be heading.

01:00But I would caution everyone, listen, it's been a great start to the season for Duke,

01:05but we see this every year.

01:08There will be lulls at some particular point for everyone, including Duke.

01:14These are still 18-, 19-year-olds, Donnie.

01:16There is still a lot of basketball to be played.

01:21You can't bet Duke now on anything anyway in the future market.

01:24You need to wait until maybe they do slip up here a little bit and then get them at a better price.