00:00Joel Sherman here for three things.
00:03I'm coming to you from Steinbrenner Field.
00:05Yesterday was my first full day at Yankee Camp.
00:08I wrote about in the New York Post the Trent Grisham situation, and so why don't we do
00:13our three things today on the Trent Grisham situation, which I guess is also the Jason
00:19Dominguez situation and to some degree the Cody Bellinger and Spencer Jones situation
00:24and some mandate on Brian Cashman, Hal Steinbrenner, Aaron Booth.
00:30Let's start with number one.
00:33If you're a big market team and you're not willing to pay $22 million on a guy who hit
00:3834 homers last year, hits left-handed at your ballpark for the Yankees, was 11th in the major
00:46leagues in walk percentage, and had a 125 OPS plus and plays an incredibly difficult position
00:52to find quality people, which is center field in the major leagues, then you're not a big
00:57market team.
00:58The Mets essentially did something very similar with a $22 million gamble as well.
01:05They traded for Luis Robert to play center field.
01:08He makes $20 million this year.
01:09If the Mets don't pick up his option next year, there's a $2 million buyout.
01:13Simple math, that's $22 million.
01:15His last great year was 2023.
01:18It's been injury-prone and not as good the last two years.
01:21And I thought it was the right move.
01:22Again, this is not an easy position to find.
01:25Robert is in his prime.
01:27And the Mets have a chance to get something special out of him.
01:31And if not, it's a big market team that's done with a guy when the season is over, if
01:37they want.
01:37And if not, they could just pick up his option, which is for another $20 million in 2027, hoping,
01:45of course, we play baseball in 2027 and there's not a lockout and no games.
01:50But as far as Grisham is concerned, look, if the Yankees had to make a decision within
01:58five days after the World Series ended whether to give the qualifying offer or not, they don't
02:04know at that point if Cody Bellinger is coming back.
02:07If the Yankees do not give the qualifying offer, and just as important, Grisham doesn't accept
02:15it.
02:16The Yankees lose even more leverage with Bellinger.
02:19I'm not sure he's back here because I'm sure the Yankees would have had a line in the sand
02:23for what they were willing to do with Bellinger.
02:25And in that case, you might be looking at, they talked a lot to the White Sox about Luis
02:31Robert Jr.
02:32And you might have Dominguez in left and Luis Robert Jr. in center, judge and right, and
02:38that's it.
02:39You know, that's, the Yankees had to make the decision if they have no Grisham, Bellinger
02:45and Scott Boris's agent know that there is a level of desperation.
02:48And what the Yankees have done the six or seven years that Bellinger wanted, they kept
02:53it to five, they got him back here.
02:55And again, I heard that was one of the complaints at the time of the signing was when the Yankees
03:02qualified him is, oh, Hal Steinbren is cheap and he's not going to bring back Cody Bellinger
03:07now.
03:07And the Yankees did bring back Cody Bellinger.
03:11So let's go to number two.
03:13Do I love this player?
03:15I do not.
03:16I know what his track record is, you know, there's a guy who even last year hit 230, he's
03:22got a low 200 batting average, was under 200 for the couple of seasons before last year.
03:27Last year could have been an aberration, no doubt about it.
03:33If you don't like Trent Grisham and you're part of the body language police, and look, I
03:39don't like the body language.
03:41I don't like what feels like loafing a lot.
03:44I think it's very hard to be a center fielder with speed and bat 581 times and have just
03:49nine doubles.
03:50I think that that suggests that there's not busting it out of the box.
03:55And I think it suggests, you know, that there were some doubles left on the table.
04:00But again, if the Yankees – if this turns out to be an aberration, the Yankees are done
04:05with it at the end of the year.
04:08You know, if he goes out into the marketplace, my suspicion is that Grisham gets two years
04:15or maybe like three at 45, three at 48, someplace in there.
04:19We saw the numbers go up for bats in this marketplace.
04:23I think he would have done okay to well.
04:26And quite frankly, because I'm not sure about Trent Grisham, and you're a big market team,
04:32you're much better off having him for one year at 22 than three years at 45, say.
04:37And then if it turns out to be an aberration, if you've got the three years, you've got to
04:41live with it for two more years.
04:42You know, in this situation, if he's struggling in April, May, June, you could always turn
04:48to a Jason Dominguez, a Spencer Jones, the trade market, and then you're done with the
04:53contract at the end of the season.
04:55So, you know, and go with it what you want.
04:59But the guy had a ton of big hits last year, and all the underlying numbers that the Yankees
05:04in their analytics department like as far as like a hard hit rate and discerning ball from
05:10strike and swinging at strikes, et cetera, were really good for Grisham.
05:15Does it suggest that a very talented guy had something click, in which case 22 million
05:22might actually be a bargain if he repeats something like last year?
05:26It's possible.
05:28Again, I don't love the player, but I just think for if you're a big market team, Luis
05:32Robert, not exactly sure he's going to have a good year.
05:36Trent Grisham, not exactly sure he's going to have a good year.
05:38But for one year, $22 million investments in this age for a big market team, you got
05:44to go for it, I think.
05:45Which brings us to number three.
05:47There was a lot of bemoaning of once the Yankees got Grisham, what does that mean for
05:53Jason Dominguez?
05:54He's being blocked, et cetera.
05:56Let's remember, Jason Dominguez was the everyday left fielder for the Yankees last season.
06:01And his at-bats began to go away in the last two months for the most fair market reason
06:09possible.
06:09He was outplayed by Trent Grisham.
06:12Grisham played great, and Dominguez continued to struggle.
06:15He's a switch hitter who struggled against lefty pitching as a righty hitter.
06:19And he's a guy who continued, even if he got a little better in left field, it was still
06:23below average.
06:24So to me, these are the Yankees.
06:26If it's the White Sox, if it's the Rockies, it's a few other rebuilding teams, you just
06:31put Dominguez in left field and see what another 500 to 650 plate appearances look like.
06:37But the Yankees got to win, right?
06:39Like the other complaint will be, hey, man, you put a guy on the field who can't play,
06:42you're the Yankees.
06:44You know, Jason Dominguez might be Clint Frazier.
06:47It might look really good in certain aspects, certain skills, but it doesn't all work together
06:53on the field.
06:54And the Yankees probably have to be a little more sure about that if they have a better
06:58option that they can afford.
06:59And on paper, the better option for just this season is Grisham.
07:03And I'm here to say that Dominguez will not be killed by going to the minor leagues and
07:09that he will get an opportunity this year.
07:12Grisham is a guy who consistently has hamstring injuries.
07:15Cody Bellinger's had some chronic back stuff.
07:18As we know, it would be shocking if Giancarlo Stanton didn't have an injury list stint or
07:24two during the year.
07:25At this point, it's incumbent on Jason Dominguez to go to the minor leagues at age 23, a year
07:32and a half younger than Spencer Jones, who has zero major league at bats, go to the minor
07:37leagues, outplay Spencer Jones so that when the call comes, and the call will come, it
07:44will be for him.
07:45And the one thing he'll get in the minor leagues that he can't hear, remember, Aaron Judge
07:49is going to play every day.
07:50The other two players or lefties are Bellinger and Grisham, who are, you know, they're going
07:55to start against all righties.
07:57What you would want is a right-hand hitting outfielder to complement Grisham, who had some
08:01history where he was good against lefty pitching, but he wasn't good last year.
08:05So if you had the righty hitter who could really hit, you could put Bellinger in center and
08:11you could put that guy in left, well, Dominguez is a switch hitter, go down, it wasn't good
08:16last year from the right side, it's his natural side, but it wasn't good.
08:19Go to the minor leagues, do what you really haven't been able to do for a long time, which
08:23is just play a lot, consistently, see a lot of lefty pitching, and see if, you know, you
08:30could get that in order.
08:31See if you could get yourself to major league average in left field.
08:34He's still a young man.
08:36There is a pathway both back here or to building up his trade value so the Yankees get
08:41something in July and Dominguez gets a full-time shot in a different marketplace.
08:46His career is not over by going to the minor leagues.
08:50Outplay Spencer Jones, get back here, play well, and something will open up.
08:55The Yankees are not in the business of not playing their best players.
08:59You know how we know that?
09:00Because they pulled Dominguez out of the regular lineup last year for a guy who was outplaying
09:05him.
09:05That was Trent Grisham.
09:06I think for $22 million, the Yankees had to see Trent Grisham again to see if that was
09:10an aberration or not.
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