00:00Simon, how serious is this military buildup?
00:05Well, quite serious. The last war in the region only ended three years ago with a peace deal.
00:11And since then, large sections of that agreement just haven't simply been implemented.
00:17And so we're in a situation now where the northern, the regional government in the Tigray region is upset at
00:24the implementation of that deal.
00:26And meanwhile, the Ethiopian government has also seen large numbers of troops move towards that border in recent days and
00:34weeks.
00:34That includes heavy artillery, lots of men, and they're also shaping up with their air equipment, including drones.
00:44And we've also seen the Tigrayans now, unlike the previous war, joined by Eritrea.
00:51They are now supporting each other, ironically, even though Eritrea was committed horrific crimes inside the Tigray region during the
01:01last war, when they actually backed the government of Abiy Ahmed.
01:05So things are really at an all-time point of tension in terms of the recent years.
01:12Okay, so high levels of tension. If the conflict does reignite, what does it mean for Ethiopia, which has been
01:20going down the path of these economic reforms?
01:22They're undergoing an ongoing debt restructuring process. Could it set them back?
01:30Most definitely. I mean, everyone you talk to, economists, analysts, they all say Ethiopia doesn't really have the money for
01:36a war.
01:37If it did go to war, there'd be huge costs. They're only just starting to recover from the last time
01:43there was conflict.
01:44The hangover effect from the COVID pandemic took a long while to sort out.
01:48And creditors are just beginning to see light at the end of the tunnel in terms of restructuring that debt.
01:55So it would really set them back a huge amount.
01:59The thing that Ethiopia, I think, is banking on, though, is help from proxies.
02:04You see proxy supports in various conflict zones, not just in Ethiopia, but in Sudan also.
02:11You have the United Arab Emirates strongly backing Abiy financially in recent years.
02:16And likewise, his opponents have close ties with the likes of Egypt, which is obviously keen to set Ethiopia back
02:26because of its control of Nile waters and this massive megadam.
02:31So this could easily fuel a war nonetheless, just despite the economic situation.
02:36Thank you very much.
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