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European Markets, Central Banks & What Tech Brings to the Table
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00:00Merci beaucoup.
00:01Nous allons parler de l'Europe en markets,
00:04central banks et ce qu'il y a des choses
00:05qui peuvent faire à la table.
00:08Nous allons parler de l'économie
00:10et de l'économie,
00:12de faire votre vie peut-être plus facile,
00:14et aussi de ce que vous pouvez faire pour l'économie.
00:17Mais juste à commencer,
00:20une chose que tout le monde veut savoir
00:22est que les coûts sont très hauts
00:24comparé à ce qu'ils étaient pour longtemps,
00:27et ce qui est difficile pour l'innovation
00:29et l'investissement,
00:30quand est-ce qu'ils vont venir ?
00:34Bonne soirée, Chris.
00:36Bonjour à tout le monde.
00:37J'aimerais dire que je suis en VivaTech
00:40et que je suis en temps,
00:42ce qui n'était pas évident,
00:44parce qu'il y a des trafic jams en Paris,
00:47ce qui pourrait être un bon sign de l'économie,
00:50et je devais aller dans le métro et aller,
00:53mais je suis en train de faire.
00:56Pour répondre à votre question,
00:58oui, les coûts des coûts sont plus hauts
01:00que elles étaient,
01:01mais nous devons rappeler que elles étaient
01:04exceptionnellement low
01:05durant les années,
01:07let's say 2015 à 2021,
01:11où nous avions une déflation
01:23de l'économie et de l'économie,
01:29c'est une déflation de l'économie.
01:38et surtout de l'économie et de l'économie,
01:41surtout de l'économie.
01:43Si l'économie de l'économie
01:45reste moderne,
01:47c'est aussi grâce à la crédibilité
01:49de notre anti-inflationary stance.
01:54Inflation est le premier ennemi
01:56de long-term funding,
01:59le premier ennemi de la confiance,
02:00et je pense que c'est aussi un
02:02signifiant ennemi de la technologie.
02:05C'est-à-dire que nous avons probablement
02:09une grande confiance sur l'économie
02:13de l'économie.
02:14Nous sommes probablement,
02:15très probablement,
02:17nous allons avoir une première
02:20récarte dans notre prochain
02:21gouvernement de l'économie,
02:23c'est-à-dire,
02:24c'est-à-dire,
02:24c'est-à-dire,
02:25c'est-à-dire,
02:25je ne peux pas être clair.
02:28Je pense que c'est assez clair.
02:30Je pense que vous ne pouvez pas être
02:31plus clair sur l'économie de l'économie
02:34Cette matinée,
02:35il y a des données qui ont été
02:39montées sur l'économie
02:40européenne,
02:41et la PMI,
02:43les données de l'économie,
02:44mais aussi des données de l'économie
02:46qui ont été très fortes.
02:48C'est-à-dire,
02:48c'est-à-dire,
02:49c'est-à-dire ?
02:50Je vais peut-être préciser.
02:52Nous avons deux sets de données
02:54cette matinée,
02:54et nous ne devons pas
02:55à l'économie de l'économie.
02:58Je pense que c'est important
03:00d'avoir une vue globale.
03:02Et la vue globale,
03:03c'est, comme je l'ai dit,
03:04d'increer la confiance
03:05dans la désinflation.
03:08Je répète ça aujourd'hui.
03:10Notre forecast,
03:11et même notre commitment
03:12bearing un shock,
03:14c'est que nous allons
03:16prendre l'économie
03:17de l'économie vers 2%,
03:18notre target,
03:20à la fin de l'année prochaine.
03:22Nous sommes à 2.4%.
03:24ce matin,
03:25nous avons eu deux sets
03:26de données.
03:27Nous avons eu le PMI
03:29sur la activité économique.
03:32Ils ont monté un signal
03:34mais ils ont monté aussi
03:35que le process de déinflation
03:37par les firmes
03:38était en cours
03:39l'année dernière.
03:41Et nous avons eu
03:43ce indice des prix
03:46qui était,
03:48qui était,
03:48en tout cas,
03:49un peu
03:50sur les expectations.
03:52Mais,
03:53et c'est un très important
03:55mais,
03:56c'est tout
03:57que je dirais
03:58à ce que je dirais
03:58des exceptions allemands.
04:00Si vous regardez
04:01tous les autres pays,
04:03en tout cas,
04:04en France,
04:05vous avez une
04:06significative
04:06décélération
04:08de wages,
04:09comparé à l'année dernière,
04:10qui accompagnent
04:12la décélération
04:13des prix.
04:14Et c'est ce que nous
04:16espérons.
04:17C'est pourquoi
04:18une exception exception
04:19de deux éléments,
04:21de nombreuses
04:21qui,
04:23qui ne devraient pas
04:25renouvelables,
04:26et un accord
04:26important
04:27public-sector
04:28qui n'a pas d'effet
04:30sur les prix,
04:31parce qu'il n'y a pas
04:32des prix dans
04:32le public-sector.
04:34Donc,
04:35nous ne devons pas
04:36d'interpréter.
04:38Nous devons
04:38confiance
04:40dans le
04:40déinflation
04:41des processus
04:43Et, par le fait,
04:44les prix,
04:46comme vous le savez,
04:47les prix,
04:48les prix ne dépendent
04:49pas seulement
04:50des prix,
04:51elles dépendent aussi
04:53des marges,
04:54elles dépendent
04:55des productivités.
04:56Donc,
04:56nous allons regarder
04:57l'inflation
04:58en tout cas.
05:00Alors,
05:00bien sûr,
05:01nous sommes ici
05:02à Paris,
05:02mais le monde
05:04est plus petit
05:05que nous pensons.
05:06Et Europe
05:07pourrait être très clair
05:08ce qu'elle pourrait
05:09faire sur
05:10le 6 juillet
05:11avec ses
05:11interest rates.
05:12Le FED
05:13a dit
05:13qu'il n'y a pas
05:15la confiance
05:16qu'il n'y a pas
05:16qu'il n'y a pas
05:18dans l'eurozone.
05:21Est-ce qu'il y a un problème
05:22si nous avons
05:23une différence
05:24entre l'Europe
05:25et l'U.S.
05:27de l'U.S.
05:34de l'U.S.
05:41de l'U.S.
05:50de l'U.S.
05:54de l'U.S.
05:54de l'U.S.
05:54d'avoir des
05:54qui vont
05:54aller
05:56jusqu'auvent
05:57des risques
05:58qu'il n'y a pas
05:59d'amour de l'U.S.
06:01de l'U.S.
06:06d'un des risques
06:07d'une des risques
06:08de l'U.S.
06:11We have sufficient confidence, as I said, if there is a temporary decoupling,
06:17I insist it's temporary because the perspective of the Fed,
06:21as we understand it, is not to raise, to hike rates.
06:26If it's a temporary decoupling, it could have an effect on the exchange rate,
06:32although this perspective is already incorporated by financial markets.
06:36It could also have an effect on long-term rates, and this effect is disinflationary.
06:44So, as a whole, again, our compass is domestic.
06:47This is our mandate, and this is a significant advantage of the euro area, let me stress it.
06:53We are an economy which is large enough to be less dependent on others
06:59and on exogenous factors like the exchange rate.
07:03I don't know if you are all aware, let me stress it,
07:06that the size of the European single market is as large, as big as the American market.
07:14Its attractiveness is not the same, we will probably discuss about it,
07:18but we have a very significant European size.
07:22Let's talk exactly about, we are here at VivaTech, let's talk about tech and the European single market.
07:29One area where Europe clearly is behind the US is in the tech space.
07:35What do you think is the reason for that, and what effect does it then have on the way that
07:43you can build the economy?
07:44I think there are several explanations, and the US advantage in innovation is obvious, but there could be cultural reasons.
07:54I always mention Schumpeter, who is the economist of innovation, and Schumpeter passed away in the US, by the way.
08:02But we should not forget that he was born in Europe, in Austria and Hungary, so we have also Schumpeter
08:10genes.
08:11But there are two more economic factors.
08:13The first one, I mentioned it with the single market.
08:17We have the same size, but we don't have the same speed and the same attractivity.
08:23Because there are still too many internal borders, frictions, obstacles, for each of you as entrepreneurs.
08:31You are probably present already in several European markets, but you still use the plural.
08:37And we should make further progress in the single market.
08:41It's not only a glorious legacy of Jacques Delors, it's a promise for the future.
08:47Enrico Letta, the former Italian Prime Minister, published a very interesting report on deepening the single market one month ago.
08:55This is about the size.
08:57And the other advantage we could activate is the financial power.
09:03We have more savings, as Europeans, than the US.
09:07And a lot at the moment.
09:09We are saving a hell of a lot at the moment, aren't we?
09:11Yes.
09:12And we have an excess savings, if you look, even when you deduct public deficits, etc.
09:19We have an excess savings in Europe of about 2% of GDP of 300 billion euros,
09:26which we could invest in Europe, but which are at present invested in the US or in some emerging markets.
09:35This is about capital markets union.
09:39You probably heard this technical expression.
09:42I would prefer to call it savings and investment union.
09:46But to give an obvious example, which is very important for the tech, if you look at venture capital,
09:54the 10 most important venture capital funds are American.
09:58And the number one in Europe is smaller than the number 10 in the US.
10:04Also, we have more savings.
10:06So let us develop really cross-border, pan-European venture capital funds.
10:11And is that the real constraint you see?
10:15You see the constraint being some sort of single market inability to finance constraint
10:21and it's not because there's something fundamentally that we're doing wrong.
10:25We're not taking enough risk or what is that?
10:28Is that the constraint?
10:29No, as I said, there could be a cultural factor, but we made significant progress
10:34and many of you are probably the best proof of that.
10:37We are now much more gifted in France with French tech and in Europe to have new start-ups.
10:47And we have no real handicaps in this field.
10:50It's when they grow, when they scale up, that we have a funding problem.
10:55And this is where capital markets union or what I said about venture capital is so important.
11:02But we shouldn't be shy. We shouldn't be limited in our ambition.
11:10Again, if we are ready to play them and to play them together, it's obvious.
11:16No European country has a solution alone.
11:19We can be a very fertile ground for innovation.
11:24Look, by the way, at some northern European countries.
11:28They are very innovative.
11:29Do you see a lot of progress being made on the regulatory front?
11:34We're now having, as you see, there was a report by letter.
11:37We've got the Draghi report coming out.
11:39Do you think this is just a European thing of talking about problems or do you actually see action on
11:44the ground?
11:46No, we have to act also.
11:48But we are able to act. It's too slow.
11:50We are all a bit impatient, starting with me.
11:55But look at what we succeeded in in the last 25 years.
11:59First single currency.
12:02And believe me, I am a rather ancient governor now.
12:06I was in Maastricht more than 30 years ago.
12:09There were many scepticals at that side, remember, for the oldest one in the audience.
12:15In Europe and outside Europe, it worked through crisis.
12:19And now we created something which is internationally acknowledged.
12:24Then banking union remembers a banking crisis in Europe more than 10 years ago.
12:30Nobody is at present fearing a banking crisis in Europe.
12:35So I think the next stage is really to use our common power, not only for the currency, but really
12:42to fund our investment needs in green transformation, in digital transformation, and hence to accelerate our growth.
12:50We have the ways and means.
12:53What we need is really the political will to use them together.
12:58I insist a bit on it because this will be the chart, the roadmap, so to say, of the next
13:04European Commission and the next European Parliament, I hope, for the next five years.
13:09Tell me what the Bank of France is doing with tech.
13:13What innovations are you bringing in and how is tech really helping you do your job better?
13:18No, tech is changing significantly our job.
13:22To give you at least two quick examples, we were the first central bank in Europe to use blockchain for
13:31some applications and we are developing it.
13:34And second, we are now accelerating on artificial intelligence like many, many central banks.
13:41It will change the way we analyze economic data and hence we run monetary policy or the way we supervise
13:50banks.
13:50It will make our control probably a bit quicker, a bit more efficient and a bit more focused.
13:59And are you therefore able, you know, we talked a bit about the data earlier today.
14:04Are you able to have a faster reaction and do you see what's going on in the economy quicker than
14:10you used to?
14:11Yes, probably yes.
14:13This would be a long debate and there are, I guess, many data specialists in the audience.
14:20We have to look at quick data, spot data.
14:26We use them during COVID, for example.
14:28We didn't know exactly where the economy was going and they were very useful.
14:33What we call high-frequency data in our jargon.
14:37But not only at them.
14:41And this is very important.
14:42There are longer series.
14:44There are more recurrent data which are very useful for official accounts.
14:49For example, we shouldn't lose sight of them.
14:53So we have additional sources of information.
14:57But this is often the case, I guess, with AI.
15:01It brings a compliment.
15:03It brings all of us a broader spectrum, a broader power of data.
15:09But it will not replace the existing sources we have.
15:14If not, it would be a mistake.
15:16And is that the same with what the central bank itself can do for the tech industry?
15:22So we've talked about Europe and the tech industry.
15:24What is the Bank of France doing to make the tech industry or to give opportunities to the tech industry?
15:30Two quick answers.
15:32First, we are specialised on macro economy.
15:36So we are not dedicated to such or such sector, including the tech sector as such.
15:43But, and I think this is very important, and this is a kind of commitment I take today.
15:50If I look at finance, we are very committed to have an open finance.
15:55This means there are incumbents, things of banks, insurance, asset managers, which we are not the supervisors of.
16:03And it's an asset to have powerful incumbents.
16:07As you are aware, the French financial sector is probably the most powerful in Europe.
16:12But open finance means that there must be room for newcomers, for increased competition.
16:20And we really try as a supervisor, ACPR, to help newcomers in agreeing them, in advising them.
16:30We created a dedicated department to accompany fintechs.
16:36We have dedicated events for them.
16:39So, in the sector we are a bit more in charge of, which is finance, really the greatest possible openness.
16:47I would add that on climate, and green tech is obviously an important part of tech,
16:56in the climate, we are acknowledged as the most committed green central banks among the old G20.
17:05It's not a self-judgement, which could be suspicious.
17:09It's a judgement by NGOs, and we are quite proud of it.
17:14So, we created a network for greening the financial system, and we tried to accompany private initiative.
17:23But we are not a direct economic actor, obviously.
17:28But in one area, you are becoming a direct economic actor, and that is in the digital euro project and
17:34payments.
17:35And there are huge numbers of payments companies which are using tech to improve payments.
17:41And yet the European Central Bank is muscling in, I think some people might see it.
17:47Why is there a need for the official sector to do something the private sector is doing quite well?
17:53So, this question of the Central Bank Digital Currency, or CBDC, raises many questions.
17:59Let me try to be short and clear.
18:02First, an obvious statement.
18:06The central, the core business of a central bank is to issue money.
18:12We issued money for more than two centuries in form of bank notes.
18:17If the new form is digital, it's quite logical that we issue a central bank digital currency.
18:24That said, it will be a complement to existing commercial bank digital currency, your credit card, your mobile, etc., your
18:35bank account.
18:36And we have no aim of market share for the central bank digital currency.
18:43It's only a possibility, a free choice, which we will probably, the decision should be taken next year, which we
18:51will probably offer to individual citizens.
18:54This is for retail.
18:55Let me insist on another part, which is less often mentioned, but which is probably still more obvious from an
19:04economic standpoint.
19:05This is what I would call all sales, CBDC, for financial markets, etc.
19:11You mentioned payments.
19:12It's very important that we, as Europeans, have a state-of-the-art payments infrastructure.
19:20I don't know if you are a specialist of payments, there are some in the room, but I can witness
19:28that 10 or 20 years ago payments were seen as a boring staff.
19:33Back-office question for technical specialists.
19:36It's no longer the case.
19:39It's of utmost importance and it embarks, it on boards, much technological innovation.
19:46I will give two examples you are perhaps not aware of, fast payment system in Brazil, PIX, or in India,
19:55UPI, which are developing at a fantastic speed.
20:00So we should offer the same functionality in Europe and it should be anchored on an wholesale central bank currency.
20:10Probably we could add a new technique, which is tokenization, the possibility for deposits for financial assets to become completely
20:20digital.
20:21And if you use token, it's not only about cash, it's also about information, legal contracts, transactions, which you can
20:31have in the same token.
20:33This will be a revolution for the payment landscape and we should be together, private and public, active European players
20:43there.
20:43There we have it. I think our time is up. Governor, thank you very much.
20:48I think we've heard that there is a 99% chance there will be an interest rate cut in June
20:52after that will be data dependent.
20:55Europe needs to ensure that its saving gets more directed domestically in the tech industry and other places and that
21:05you are going to be a partner and collaborating with the private sector in payments.
21:11Thank you very much. Yes, and to put it in a nutshell, let us, as Europeans, play our common advantages.
21:17They are for real.
21:19Thank you Governor very much.
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