00:00Let's talk to Angela Diffley about all of this.
00:02Angela, what do you make of the language from the Iranian foreign minister?
00:06Well, there's been a little more since we last spoke.
00:08One interesting thing that the Iranian foreign minister said
00:11was that the United States must immediately stop.
00:16Its explicit reference to the possible use of force by the United States
00:20must end immediately, is what he said.
00:23You know, good luck with that.
00:24Whoever can control what Donald Trump chooses to say about anything
00:29and its impact on negotiations, that is not going to be heeded, I would imagine.
00:34And the reality is, of course, Donald Trump said this morning
00:37that he thought Iran was keen to negotiate
00:40because it didn't want to face the consequences if it didn't.
00:45And, you know, it is a fact that the United States
00:48have their big, beautiful armada off the coast of Iran,
00:52and that is a credible threat,
00:55given that the last time in the middle of negotiations
00:59the United States decided to join the Israelis
01:02and eliminate or certainly disable significantly the nuclear programme.
01:08That said, it is all sounding quite positive from the Iranian side.
01:13As you said there, they talked about a window of opportunity.
01:15They talked about, they hoped that it might lead to a deal,
01:20that there was no assumption that it would,
01:22but if it left, there was a possibility that it might lead to a deal
01:26with lasting consequences for the region,
01:30for stability in the region.
01:33All of that is sounding very, very positive.
01:35Yesterday, the Iranian foreign minister
01:37met with the head of the International Atomic Energy Agency,
01:42Rafael Grossi.
01:43That in itself was seen as a positive sign,
01:45and he said, the Iranian foreign minister, Abbas Arachis,
01:50said that both the United States and the Iranian delegation
01:54talked today about the role of the IAEA.
01:59So it is looking positive.
02:01Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner were leading the American delegation,
02:05so all that was ever expected was movement towards a possible framework.
02:11You know, these people are not in a position
02:13to be talking about detailed nuclear programmes
02:16and the significance of this or that compromise.
02:19And we haven't heard any reaction yet from this meeting
02:22or any comments from the Americans yet.
02:25Angela, what do you think the next steps may be then
02:30from the Trump perspective?
02:32Well, the Iranians are in difficulty
02:36because of how closely they got to being overthrown,
02:40the regime, Ayatollah Khamenei's regime, in January.
02:44And without the use of brutal force,
02:46that regime might not still be there.
02:48They are keen on an easing of sanctions
02:52to try to appease their people.
02:54That was one of the demands during the protests.
02:57A lot of young Iranians particularly saying,
03:00we want an end to these sanctions.
03:03So the Iranians are keen on that.
03:06And it comes down to, in a way,
03:08what price the United States might take for easing the sanctions.
03:14You know, will Donald Trump go for something very minimal?
03:17It is an election year, midterms this year.
03:20He won't want the United States to be embroiled in a forever war.
03:24He might go for something very minimal.
03:28They talked before about zero uranium enrichment.
03:34You know, we don't really know what that looks like.
03:36Any compromise on that, we will see.
03:39The Israelis would like to be included in any deal.
03:42The idea that the ballistic missiles program should end,
03:46that Iran's support for its proxy militias in the region,
03:51the Houthis, many of the others,
03:53are now much less forceful than they were.
03:56The Israelis were certainly like that included in any deal.
03:59And, of course, particularly the young,
04:02but all those Iranian protesters wanted regime change.
04:07They want the government to be overthrown.
04:10And that is quite tricky.
04:12Will Trump go for that?
04:14You know, it could destabilise the whole region.
04:16He listens very much to the Saudis.
04:17It's not quite clear what the Saudis want.
04:19The Turkish government does not seem very keen.
04:22The Israelis, now that they feel ready,
04:27could go for it.
04:28The Israelis are quite keen.
04:29They were a little bit reticent earlier on
04:31because they were worried about the Iranians retaliating.
04:34But now that the Americans have put in
04:35these air defence batteries in the area,
04:38the cost of a regional war to, for example, Israel,
04:41would be less.
04:43But, you know, would Iran erupt into civil war?
04:47You know, any regime change always involves
04:50the most enormous risk.
04:51You know, as many people have noted,
04:53this is not Venezuela.
04:54It is a multi-ethnic country.
04:56It is complicated.
04:57So we don't know where they're heading
04:59or what they will settle for.
05:01And, of course, Donald Trump always likes to be unpredictable.
Comments