00:00But if we do look at the Calci markets right now, to win the gold medal, which country will do
00:03that?
00:04Canada is the favorite, and rightfully so.
00:06Trading at a 51% chance.
00:08Here's the interesting part, Joe.
00:0951% trading for yes, 51% trading to no.
00:14So if you invest $100 on the yes, pays back $197.
00:17$100 on the no, pays back $197.
00:20Found that pretty interesting right there.
00:22Well, it's also interesting, too, because if you even look at the silver markets, right?
00:27You've got the fact that Team USA is also right at the top there in the silver favorite, too, in
00:34this.
00:34So basically, the market is telling you, Donnie, they anticipate Canada versus USA in the final, right?
00:41So you have an opportunity, basically.
00:44Either of those markets will work for you.
00:46But basically, you can go ahead and cash one or the other, as long as the prices are correct, in
00:52any order,
00:53whether it's USA Gold or USA Silver, and you can get Canada, you're cashing a ticket and profiting.
01:00Like, the U.S. obviously has a really good hockey club.
01:02They're second in favorites right now to win the gold medal.
01:05Canada is the favorite, and rightfully so.
01:06And by the way, as we're doing this show live, they dropped to 49%.
01:09That's what we tell you.
01:10This can change every minute, every second, every hour here.
01:13Make sure you're keeping up on it.
01:14Now, the thought process behind this, Joe, sometimes in, like, the NFL or other sports, you say, recently, recency bias,
01:20which means what happened in the previous couple weeks, the previous months, or even the previous year.
01:24It's no surprise.
01:25Like, Canada is better overall hockey than the United States.
01:28Does it play into this, you know, Olympiad this year?
01:30I don't know.
01:30But do you take that into account where we just showed a graphic that showed the U.S. hasn't won
01:34a gold medal since 1980?
01:37Does that play into it where it seems like Canada does have the U.S.'s number here in the Olympics?
01:41Well, they had them in the Four Nations last year, too, during the All-Star break, which was an overtime
01:47win for Canada.
01:48So, and listen, almost all of the guys that represented both nations in the Four Nations last year are on
01:56the team here this year.
01:57So, yeah, a little revenge factor.
02:00But ultimately, to me, Donnie, it's, listen, history be damned, right?
02:03If I have an opportunity to middle the Team USA for gold and silver and the same thing with Canada
02:10since the market heavily favors that as the final anyway,
02:14I'm going to go ahead and do it and may the best team win.
02:17Either way, we win, Donnie, which is what this is all about.
02:21Absolutely.
02:22And Joe also brought up the ice hockey market here for silver medal.
02:25Obviously, it's correlated to the gold medal whose expectations are it's supposed to be Canada.
02:30So, when you flip that over, the United States trading at a 37% here to win the silver, and
02:34then Canada only at a 21%,
02:37which also brings up where now you bring it to the market, okay, you separate Team USA, you separate Team
02:42Canada.
02:43There's three medals, Joe.
02:44One of those is a bronze.
02:45Sweden and Finland are the favorites to get the bronze.
02:48Sweden trading at a 36% chance and Finland 22%, and obviously USA and Canada behind them.
02:54If U.S. or Canada win a bronze medal, that would be devastation to those home countries, Joe.
03:00That would be devastating.
03:02That would also, we'd lose out on a couple of contracts here because the price discrepancy between them allows us
03:08to middle them,
03:10barring any sort of craziness leading up to that championship game.
03:13But really, you're right.
03:15I mean, if we all know that USA and Canada are going to take gold and silver,
03:19then the market is basically asking us who wins the bronze medal in this situation, right?
03:25And it seems to be a pretty good dead heat among those teams.
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