Pakistan’s latest maneuvers in the strategically sensitive Sir Creek region have set off new alarms in India. With rapid military build-up and new forward bases is Islamabad testing India’s resolve or planning something more? In this Exclusive conversation for Asianet News' special series 'In Focus', Lt Gen (Retd.) Syed Ata Hasnain unpacks what these moves mean for India’s maritime security, explains why Sir Creek is emerging as a flashpoint, and discusses what to watch in the days ahead. Watch the full analysis now.
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#SirCreek #IndiaPakistan #Security #Defence #AtaHasnain #Geopolitics #MilitaryAnalysis #MaritimeSecurity #SirCreekDispute #World
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NewsTranscript
00:00Today I have with me Lieutenant General Syed Atta Hasnend. He is a very prominent commentator
00:18on national security issues especially when it comes to India-Pakistan relations. He is
00:23currently the Chancellor at the Central University of Kashmir and today we have connected with him
00:28to speak on a very important issue. It has become a renewed flashpoint between India and Pakistan
00:34General. This is something which has always remained a disputed a contested territory.
00:39Intelligence reports suggested that there is a military build-up around this region. Now this
00:44region is very strategically important because if Pakistan gains more control to this area it
00:49will become a launchpad for Pakistan to attack India not only militarily but also in terms of
00:54cross-border terrorism. How important do you think this region is both security wise and economically
01:01as well? First of all thank you for inviting me for your program. Yes you are absolutely correct
01:07in identifying the circular issue as a very important strategic issue for India's national security.
01:15Having said that there are two angles to it which you have yourself identified. First the economic
01:20angle any territory lost or even the territory which is supposedly which is under our control at the
01:28moment if we don't look after that territory there is a always the danger of the exclusive economic zone
01:37which is linked to that territory and the control of that territory going away from under our influence
01:43and our capability to defend it. That's an important thing because this is a huge area for fisheries
01:50for undersea minerals and for shipping in general. So this has its own economic connotations but more than
01:59that even more than that is the security aspect. You see this is a broken area when we say broken it means
02:06the terrain is very difficult. It is crisscrossed by all kinds of rivulets which keep course based upon
02:14the tight tidal patterns. It's an estuary basically and which has got a couple of channels which are coming in.
02:23Pakistan of course has extended its claim to a certain area the eastern part of that area to say that
02:30that entire area it belongs to it. While India follows the international principle of any disputed territory
02:37then it is especially waterways. It is always the mid course of the current that determines what the
02:44territorial division is. Pakistan does not believe that. So it seems that the geopolitical environment
02:54which is existing at the moment in the Indian subcontinent is the issue which has brought the
03:01Sur Creek problem into prominence at the moment. Pakistan has found a new found strategic importance
03:09in the international community based upon President Trump's sudden love for Pakistan so to say and
03:19whatever he has against India seems rather peeved about it and it seems that we will have to live with
03:24this during his presidency. I for one initially did perceive that this was a temporary aberration
03:30but it seems that we will have to live with it. Now with Pakistan having found such favor
03:36it seems that Pakistan is attempting to test the waters. It's not necessary that they may do anything
03:42particular here but just by carrying out certain overtures like building up your infrastructure or
03:48moving some troops into that area. They are testing our responses to see what is the possible way that
03:55India is going to respond and they're also looking for international backing and potentially a small
04:01action which may lead to the US back in Pakistan for it. So this is a kind of a testing of the waters of the
04:08strategic environment at the moment. Do you think that China also plays a very important role because we know
04:14that China supports Pakistan military wise and also infrastructure wise given the fact that how it is
04:21trying to expand the Belt and Road initiative. China can also try and push for the internationalization
04:27of this issue because India continues to have a firm stand that it needs to be a bilateral diplomatic talk
04:33and not something which needs to be internationalized. Do you think that China also plays a very important role here?
04:39Well China, in the current environment, our relations with China have improved definitely and China does realize
04:47that India is an important nation for it from an economic angle because the Chinese economy has
04:53downsized all of a sudden, the growth rates have come down and the United States is not a trustworthy
04:59element to work with. So India is one of the trusted, it's not trusted should I say, but one of those
05:06countries with whom China finds it easier to work at the moment, the mutuality of interest as such.
05:12So it's not as if China is looking to upset the apple cart in any way, but there are other ways of
05:18doing it as you yourself suggest that through Pakistan, through the proxy of Pakistan, keeping
05:24India under pressure. One of the ways is through the Kashmir issue, one of the other way is through the LA
05:30line of actual control in Ladakh and here the other extremity in Surkri. Now if you have both ends,
05:37Ladakh, Kargil, Siachen, Kashmir and Surkri all in ferment at any time, it means essentially your entire
05:46western front is on the brink, so to say. So it is yes, definitely to China's interest to keep our gaze,
05:54to keep our focus diverted towards the western front and not so much to the northern front,
05:59where we confront China at the moment. This is not necessary that it's going to lead to war tomorrow.
06:05These are the kind of issues which nations work up, play out, essentially to keep their adversaries
06:12under pressure, ensure that they do not have the funds to be able to spend on other diverse projects.
06:19For example, the Chinese would not be happy with India strengthening the Indian Navy, for example,
06:25because the maritime zone is the area where China's weakness is prevalent. So from that angle,
06:31definitely the Chinese have an interest and the last issue on this is the entire area of the north
06:38west Indian Ocean that is stretching from let's say the Gujarat coast and going right up to Bandar Abbas
06:47and connecting up all the way to the area around the Red Sea is a great area of interest for China,
06:56primarily because all its oil, all its energy resources flow from this area. The reason why
07:03China could achieve such a phenomenal rate of growth was because these were secure lines of energy
07:10which were coming through the Indian Ocean to them. They don't want this upset. Definitely,
07:15having greater influence on the exclusive economic zone around these areas will contribute to Chinese
07:22security too. Out of concern, just trying to understand from you, because you also just mentioned
07:27at the beginning of this interview that this area is, you know, consists of mud flats and it's not
07:34easy to have infrastructure there. How ready is India right now? Because in 2023, when India,
07:40you know, started to construct on this particular Maurya Bhat Island, Pakistan objected to it. How
07:46ready India is in terms of its reconnaissance capabilities, its infrastructure to be able to,
07:52you know, have better surveillance so that Pakistani fishermen or Pakistani boats or even Pakistani military
07:58does not infiltrate? Very good question. And, uh, I haven't bring an historical context to this.
08:06If you remember 1965, the war of 65 did not start from Punjab or Kashmir. It actually started from here
08:14in Bhuj right there and on the, on the, on the Bhuj coastline, uh, 1971. Again, later on, this was,
08:25this area was reasonably active. After Kargil, this is the area where, if you remember the Atlantic
08:32aircraft, which is the surveillance aircraft, maritime surveillance aircraft of the Pakistan Navy,
08:38was shot down by India with 16 people who died in that air crash. Uh, the aircraft fell on the
08:44Pakistani side and the Pakistanis obviously claimed that they had never penetrated Indian airspace.
08:50So this area has a history of tension. And, uh, we know that Pakistan, every time there is some major
08:57conflagration up north, always attempts to do something in this area, which is one of the reasons
09:03why India has been very, very circumspect, uh, about what's happening at the moment. Having said that,
09:10I have the fullest confidence that the Indian armed forces and jointly, not just the Indian army,
09:15but jointly the Navy, the army and the air force along with the BSF have got their act together,
09:20have always had a certain focus on this particular area. The presence of Mr. Rajnath Singh for the
09:28Sarah celebrations with the troops in Bhuj was a notional symbolic act to project and tell people
09:36across the border that we are ready. Our focus is very much in this area. Shastra Puja was performed
09:42there, if you remember. And, um, uh, quickly thereafter, immediately thereafter, the army
09:48chief has made a number of statements, the air force chief has made a number of statements,
09:52all this outlining primarily and focusing, projecting that India is in a state of readiness
09:59in terms of infrastructure, in terms of technology. India has upgraded itself very greatly in the last 10
10:06to 12 years. And, uh, today satellite surveillance over that particular area, uh, a number of reconnaissance
10:14flights, maritime reconnaissance flights, other reconnaissance flights keep flying over these
10:19areas. Drone surveillance is the order of the day at the moment. So I'm, I don't think we have
10:26anything to really worry about. Uh, the government once is concerned, once the intelligence agencies
10:32have got their focus on it, I don't think we really need to worry too much. What is the resolution to
10:38this dispute? Because after 2016, when Pathan court happened, uh, the talks, the diplomatic interaction
10:46between the two countries absolutely was a stalled. Uh, how soon? Because now we have a renewed tension
10:52after operation Sindhu. Do you think that these diplomatic talks can resume in the future?
10:58Uh, if you recall, Surkreek and Siachen were both termed as a low hanging fruit at one time, uh, by the
11:07Pakistanis and with the perception that these two could be resolved independent of the Kashmir issue,
11:14right? Uh, India to an extent also thought that we could resolve Surkreek, not Siachen. Siachen is
11:21connected to Jamun Kashmir, but Surkreek we went along and we were in turn in, in, in a, in a stage of
11:27negotiations at that time. But thereafter, the incorrigible kind of a approach and attitude that
11:34Pakistan has displayed, uh, in attempting to come to terms with India, uh, by peace with India,
11:42it seems that this issue now also has got related to the larger issues of all disputes with Pakistan.
11:49So I think talks and terrorism, as we say, cannot go together. This also has become a part of that issue
11:57and I don't foresee a resolution to it anytime in the future. The rise of nationalists forever in the
12:03country as it is will prevent any kind of a resolution, which is not in favor of India. So
12:08I don't think the political climate within India, and I don't think the, the geopolitical climate within
12:15the subcontinent, uh, permits any resolution at this time. Right. Just last question, uh, general,
12:20you've already spoken about it in brief, but I want to pose this question again to you. The, the timing
12:26of the Surkreek issue and how Pakistan has, you know, tried to ramp up its military infrastructure
12:33right after Operation Sindhu. Do you think it is all because of Trump's backing to Pakistan or
12:38Pakistan had this in mind earlier? Well, let me go a little beyond what you have just said. Uh,
12:44Pakistan's rising strategic confidence. Where does it come from? A couple of factors which you have to
12:52consider. When you look at the geopolitical angle, a lot of us are only focusing on the Trump factor,
12:59not realizing that there are many other connections. Also Turkey, the support from Turkey,
13:04uh, the transactional support which it is getting from Iran today, right? Uh, the pact it has just signed
13:12with Saudi Arabia, right? And of course the Chinese support is a universal support which continues
13:18around the clock, around the year, uh, all the time. So geopolitically, Pakistan seems to be on a
13:24diplomatic high at the moment. And that always contributes to an Asian strategic confidence.
13:29The second aspect is, uh, the internal security situation in Pakistan is not too good. As you see
13:35what is happening in Pakistan-occupied Jammu and Kashmir at the moment, a lot of turbulence,
13:40and, uh, last two years in particular now seems to have come to a head at this time. And this can
13:45turn very, very dangerous for Pakistan. Khyber-Pakhtounkhoa, similarly, uh, the Tehrik-e-Taliban problem
13:52is very much prevalent. The Balochistan issue refuses to go away. So internally, there is a fair degree
13:59of turbulence. The last part is psychologically. Pakistan, the Pakistan army seems to be in a self-delusionary
14:07kind of a mode where it has told, uh, it seems to sell to the people, to the government and everything.
14:141965, Pakistan army did not lose the war. 6th of September is celebrated as victory day,
14:21right? Thereafter, this also claimed that 1971, it never lost the war because
14:27Bangladesh was a different story, but it was 1000 kilometers, 1000 miles away from the mainland Pakistan.
14:33And, um, it was completely isolated militarily. It had no resources while on the western front,
14:38see how well the Pakistan army performed. Now, these are the kind of stories. Pakistan is very
14:44good at narrative building and storytelling, and this is what it has been doing, uh, all along.
14:49It has always convinced the people that Pakistan will not lose tomorrow if they start a war.
14:56And the last issue here is, recall the Kargil. Recall other incidents. Everywhere, Pakistan has
15:03irrationally triggered a conflict, never knowing where to take it and where to conclude it. It has
15:10always ended up with egg on its face. When you keep putting all this into a crucible, you realize that
15:16the situation today is such that India should be prepared. An irrational act could take place very much
15:26to sell it to the public, the Pakistani public, to the Pakistani media and the deep state and the
15:31political community there, uh, divert attention from the internal security problems and gather the,
15:39or test out the waters of the international kind of support which it is gathering at the moment.
15:43So, it's a, it's a, it's an awkward kind of a situation and I think India is doing the right
15:48thing. By sending out the right messages, what we are doing at the moment when talking about
15:53Operation Sindhu 2.0 is something which we have not done in the past. That is narrative building.
15:59Yeah.
16:00Telling the other side, we are prepared. We are fully prepared. Try it and test us if you wish.
16:06Right. So, I think the bottom line is that Pakistan will continue to be a rogue nation
16:11on the offensive, but India will be strategically on the defensive side and continue to have a better
16:17surveillance and infrastructure in the South Creek region. Well, on that note, General, thank you so
16:21much for taking out the time and speaking with Asianate News. Uh, your perspective matters a lot
16:26and, uh, hope to connect with you soon.
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