00:00OK, but this is not only about reform taking in the defects, this is also about the Conservative Party losing its membership.
00:09So, Richard, let me ask you this, on that flip side of the coin, is this a moment of rejuvenation or is it a moment of collapse for the Conservative Party?
00:19We will see, but they are certainly in a bad way after the disastrous period in government, disastrous not just on the policies they were running, but on some of the scandals and the corruption that has left a stain which is very difficult for them to overcome.
00:34But tellingly, a lot of the switch in support among voters, not all of it, but the largest proportion has been between the Conservatives and reform on the right of the political spectrum.
00:52On the centre and the left of the political spectrum, there's movement between people who voted Labour, perhaps shifting to the Greens, the Liberal Democrats, the Scottish Nationalists, the Welsh Nationalists.
01:07But between those two blocks, there is relatively little switch between them.
01:13So that's an interesting feature of British politics at the moment. We'll see what happens over the next three years.
01:19But if it ends up with all the right-wing support going into one box, as it were, either the Conservatives or reform, that will give that party a big advantage, given the British electoral system.
01:36If, however, they split pretty evenly, and if Labour, on the other hand, manages to recoup some of the support it's losing to the Greens and to the Lib Dems, then Labour will be in the strong position.
01:48In both cases, thanks largely to the British non-proportional electoral system, but it is something to be watched.
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