00:00Keep running through the card.
00:01No other tee up.
00:02What else do we have here?
00:04Sure, we're going Stephon Diggs under longest reception.
00:07It's 16 and a half now.
00:08You're looking at a guy who's ADOT is 3.1 yards lower than it was
00:11during the regular season, during the postseason.
00:14They're not asking him to stretch the field, and he's not doing it.
00:16He'll catch a screen pass.
00:17He'll pick up a third and five for you.
00:19I don't think he's catching a 17-yard pass.
00:21His catch rate on balls thrown 10 yards down the field is far lower
00:24than balls thrown under 10 yards.
00:26That's what I'm looking at with some confidence there.
00:29If you want to bet, I don't want to say it's a chalky trend,
00:32but it gets played up, but it seems like Vegas isn't really buying it.
00:36Second half is basically even money to outscore the first half.
00:39You lose on a tie.
00:40That is what it is.
00:41But over the last 25 Super Bowls, that's 2,000.
00:44You're talking almost six more points per game in Super Bowls scored
00:47in second halves than first halves.
00:49I think that's here to stay.
00:50Give me that every day of the week.
00:52I like that trend.
00:55It's more of a JSN thing,
00:56but 13 of the last 15 Super Bowls,
00:59someone's had at least 100 receiving yards.
01:01It's something that Joe and I have talked a little bit about on the desk,
01:04but it's not as if it's a, now it's minus 138.
01:07But again, I've got the guy who led the NFL in receiving yards
01:11and 13 of the last 15 Super Bowls.
01:14That's one of those numbers that I don't feel,
01:16I feel like it is only baking in who's on the field,
01:19which I understand.
01:20Yes, it would be an upset if you get there through a New England guy,
01:22but again, it's more likely JSN just gets 100 receiving yards in the game.
01:28I wonder if you're playing anything here.
01:31If I'm going that direction,
01:32I'm taking the over on total passing yards in this game.
01:35It's that right now at 452 and a half.
01:37That would be an avenue to kind of getting exposure.
01:39The same way, if JSN goes for a buck 10, buck 20, buck 50,
01:43I'm probably cashing my bet at even odds here.
01:46I'm over 452 and a half.
01:48But I mean, I guess the risk that would come with JSN would be game script.
01:53I think Seattle wins this game by 10 points.
01:55If that's your belief, maybe they're running the ball late
01:58and it doesn't get up there to the 10, 11, 12 targets
02:01that it's going to take to hit that number.
02:03But if this game's competitive throughout, you're right.
02:05I mean, JSN's going to be weighted down with targets
02:07and fall into triple digits.
02:08I would just say though, the reason I played the minus 138
02:13instead of the, what would be like plus 110 JSN number
02:16is if you are right and Seattle wins this game
02:18and they control the whole way,
02:20if Drake may has to throw the ball 40 times,
02:22again, it would be, but maybe Diggs gets 12 catches
02:26and ends up with 100 yards, right?
02:29Like maybe there's five Kayshawn booty deep shots.
02:33Two of them come in.
02:33That's what I was thinking, yeah.
02:35Right?
02:35Like I think that that is on the board in this game.
02:39Kyle, I won't keep you too much longer,
02:40but just give me an idea of what got you to the Seattle 10 plus
02:44kind of margin of victory here.
02:46Yeah, I'm going 27-17 for the Seahawks.
02:50I just think it's the better team on both sides of the ball here.
02:53I'm not too worried about Sam Darnold.
02:55And if we're talking all this Kenneth Walker
02:57and you guys want to talk George Helani,
02:58if they get that running game going,
03:00even just a little bit, give me four yards to carry.
03:03And you're looking at Sam Darnold,
03:04the fourth best quarterback off of play action.
03:06If they get going early, that opens up everything.
03:09That puts a lot of pressure on Drake May
03:10to beat this stingy Seattle defense.
03:13Give me the Seahawks.
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