00:00I'm Brenna Nath, Senior Director of Events and Subscriptions with HousingWire.
00:12I'm excited to be here with Rebecca Thompson.
00:14She serves as National Vice President at Coldwell Banker Realty.
00:19She's not only an expert on the spring home buying market that we're about to see, but
00:23also like what the year is going to take us through and beyond.
00:28She's a speaker at our event coming up next week, or at this point, maybe it's already
00:31passed, the Housing Economic Summit, where she'll be chatting about some of the forecasts
00:36for the year and bringing all of the insights to the data.
00:39So I wanted to share some of that with our audience here today.
00:43And first off, Rebecca, just kind of talk about the spring home buying market and what
00:46you're seeing.
00:47But before we jump in, I just wanted to say welcome.
00:49Well, Brenna, thank you so much.
00:51I'm thrilled to be here and so excited for the Economic Summit.
00:55I love nerding out when we talk about trends, when we talk about data, but also the importance
01:01of how we actually apply that to our businesses, respectively.
01:07Speaking of trends, your title, I know I just said National Vice President, there's actually
01:11a lot of things that are in your purview that make you an expert on a handful of things
01:15that the housing market is going to walk into.
01:18Trends that are happening, themes is a word I like to use a lot.
01:21So knowing that you recently even took on more, I would love for you to share with our
01:27audience, OK, given that scope that you have, what are some themes, some trends that you
01:33think are going to shape either the spring home buying market or the 2025 housing market?
01:39Absolutely. Well, one of my big focuses is on agent productivity, and I love looking
01:45at PropTech and FinTech and how that is really transforming how we do business and how our
01:52consumers do business on a day to day basis.
01:54So some of the things that I see shaping our spring market is 2025, I expect our consumers
02:02are going to have more choices.
02:04Now, what that means, we've had a lot of change in the industry in 2024.
02:08And so this means more choices for buyers and sellers in who is going to represent them
02:13in the transaction and how, but also optimistically, I'm putting it out there, but more
02:20inventory choice for buyers, which is so important with our market conditions, between
02:26interest rates and pricing stabilizing a bit.
02:30We may see some more negotiating power on the buy side.
02:33And so what that tells me is agents leaning into negotiation training is going to become
02:39that much more important as we might start to see that dynamic shift.
02:44One of the other big pieces, Brenna, is return to work.
02:48You know, pre-COVID, so like once upon a time, five years ago, we were seeing across the
02:54country, urban markets booming.
02:57We saw a lot of downtowns where there was reinvestment.
03:00We saw a ton of new building going up.
03:03And then all of a sudden, pandemic hits, break, screech, people want yards.
03:10So we saw suburban markets boom.
03:12Then we saw remote workers really scattering, I'm going to say across the country,
03:15although we did have global scattering.
03:18And we saw people going to coastal areas.
03:20We saw places like Texas doing really well with people relocating.
03:24Now, since then, we've seen a lot of companies downsize on how much space they have.
03:30So whatever their office footprint was five years ago is probably not what they have
03:34today. But for the spaces that they're having, they're saying, hey, it's time for people
03:39to come back to work.
03:41And whether that's two days a week or five days a week, people are really having to
03:45reevaluate what quality of life means.
03:48So those big, beautiful yards, if you're commuting two and a half ways or the super
03:52commuters that we're all seeing stories about who are hopping on planes back and forth,
03:57that may not be sustainable.
03:59And so one of the big trends is with return to work, the buyers that we're going to see
04:03coming to the market and the sellers who are going to be making a move.
04:07And we initially thought they're locked in.
04:08They have these great interest rates.
04:10They won't move. That can be a reason for us to unlock some of this inventory and see
04:16a lot more market movement between return to work.
04:19Those are great call outs.
04:21They kind of fall into that same theme of demographics and something like a motorshow
04:26merely in us always says is people are going to have babies are going to get married.
04:30Unfortunately, they might get divorced.
04:31There's going to be changes within the people's lives that are going to force things to
04:36happen to to move, even if they love their mortgage.
04:39I know I love my mortgage rate.
04:40It's going to take me a lot to get rid of it.
04:42But those are great points, especially the return to work, the trend away from the cities
04:47to back to the cities.
04:49What you called it out, you know, we all walked through a lot of people in the industry,
04:54unless you're kind of new, went through the shift from, you know, the late, you know,
04:58twenty eighteen, twenty nineteen.
04:59Then you go into the covid.
05:00Then you have this housing market boom and you kind of what we were calling the mortgage
05:04rate lockdown into twenty twenty five.
05:08What is unique about this year and what would you say is different?
05:14And how does that feel like a strategy?
05:16Obviously, everyone wants to grow this year.
05:18I hope people want to grow.
05:19So how do those changes and what makes twenty twenty five special that they can build into
05:24how they build a plan to grow?
05:27Well, twenty twenty four was definitely a challenging year.
05:30We had a lot of headwinds and, you know, any economist that you asked late twenty twenty
05:34three, what's twenty twenty four going to look like?
05:37All of them were saying, hey, we had predictions and that reprieve never actually came in.
05:43Home sales last year were actually the lowest they were in the last 30 years.
05:48And the crazy thing is, in that same 30 years, we have seen exponential population growth
05:54and we're not seeing the movement match now for twenty twenty five.
05:59What we're seeing is, yes, we're going to still see price gains, but I'm optimistic
06:04that they're going to be more steady.
06:05There's been in some of our markets very dramatic price increases, which are pricing
06:10some people out of the market.
06:11What this means is by more steady gains, you might get more buyers off the sidelines
06:17where even if there are multiple offers, they're not priced out.
06:20If they didn't get that home this week, two weeks later, they're not chasing the
06:24market. There's a lot more predictability.
06:27The other trend that we started to see, but I think a huge shift is cash being king.
06:34We had a record number of purchases in twenty twenty four that were all cash purchases.
06:39We're expecting that to grow in twenty twenty five.
06:42And that as far as focus is also looking at that luxury buyer.
06:46We saw that luxury buyer being a really strong force.
06:49I would say the last two years they are picking up steam.
06:52So we're not only expecting that trend to continue, we expect some gains on that front.
06:58And so really understanding who is that luxury buyer, what's important.
07:03And that that buyer has shifted in that same vein when I say luxury buyer.
07:08And there may have been the profile we had a couple of years ago of here's some of the
07:11interest, some of the wants and wellness trends.
07:14And there's definitely some things that buyers are looking for today.
07:17Our first time home buyer is not who they were even in recent years.
07:22And so this is like a big shift for whether you're on the mortgage side, whether you're
07:28agents on the brokerage side.
07:30The first time home buyer is now thirty eight.
07:34And when I say that, people's jaws drop because it's not really who they would expect
07:39that to be. And part of the reason is some of these people have been waiting for rates
07:43to drop and they've been waiting and they've been waiting.
07:46And they're really needing to tailor their education process to what I'm going to call
07:51a more seasoned buyer.
07:53So they may have more general financial acumen.
07:57They may have more assets, although depending on market, if your rent rates have been
08:02really high, you may see at thirty eight you're expecting a higher down payment.
08:07It may or may not be there.
08:08And so looking at down payment assistant programs and again, looking at how we educate
08:14now this thirty eight year old first time home buyer about what the process is and what
08:19to expect, I think is a fairly dramatic shift for where we've been in prior years.
08:25Thirty eight, wow, that is not the number that I would have initially said, but it's a
08:30great call out. People have been waiting and waiting and waiting as we wrap up our ten
08:35minute talks. One of my favorite questions that I like to ask because it really just
08:39frame what is a focus area that people are thinking about is what do you think is
08:44keeping real estate leaders up at night in today's market?
08:46You can frame that for yourself if you want to just take it to you and what's keeping
08:50you up at night in the industry or maybe a theme since you are a leader among leaders.
08:54What is keeping the industry up at night?
08:56Well, I'll start with, you know, I'm big into mindset and there are things that we can
09:02control and there are things that we cannot.
09:04And so distinguishing between those two, I think, is very important.
09:07And there's been even just in recent weeks such a flurry of changes in governments.
09:13And we're going to be watching how some of these policy actions impact the markets, the
09:18economy as a whole within the real estate market.
09:21We're looking at what does that mean for even interest rates, CFPB, deregulation.
09:27There's so many unknowns on this front that's going to be exciting to see how it plays out
09:31in the months ahead. Worrying and fretting about a lot of that isn't going to get us
09:37anywhere. And so it's really just, I think, in order to stay up at night, it's really
09:42making sure you're informed, you understand what is actually happening.
09:48You're taking time to understand the implications.
09:50Inventory, I touched on already, but inventory is keeping a lot of people up at night.
09:55And there's a lot that could change.
09:57So cap gains, capital gains, that number has not changed in 25 years.
10:03And so looking at are we going to start to see some changes on that front, increased
10:07emphasis on bringing more homes to the markets, possibly more new housing starts.
10:12And so, you know, what can one do?
10:14It's looking at on a local level, what are the things, what are the programs available?
10:19What are the things that you can do to help spark more?
10:22Maybe there's zoning deregulation, things that can help create more inventory in the
10:26market. But the last piece, and this is the one that gets me excited, is keeps me up not
10:32in a bad way, tech.
10:35And people talk about AI and tech.
10:37And I think, you know, you're either in it or you're not.
10:41And good news, you're never too late.
10:44I heard someone say it, you know, people can look at AI as just never needing to start
10:49with a blank page again.
10:50And it's really looking at how we can automate, how we can become more efficient, how we
10:56can refine what we're already doing, even designing systems, processes, business plans.
11:01And whether you're on the mortgage side, the brokerage side, there is so much that can
11:07be done to tap into what you're going to do for your own business on tools and resources
11:12you can give your clients.
11:13And so that is keeping me up tonight in today's market, but in the best way possible.
11:18I feel like I start going down a rabbit hole and there's just so much available and
11:24changing. And it's exciting.
11:26That's, I think, going to be such a great change in 2025.
11:31I always appreciate an optimistic outlook, and I've never heard it put that way.
11:36It's so eloquently said, AI means you never have to start with a blank page again.
11:41That's a great way to fuel productivity is that blank page can take up a lot of time and
11:47brainpower. So thanks, Rebecca, for walking us through not only the themes of the market,
11:51all the way to how is this year different to what is keeping people up at night?
11:55You've really mapped out what I think a lot of leaders are looking at and some tips and
12:00advice on how they can approach this market.
12:01So thank you for joining with me on Ten Minute Talks.
12:05Great being here. Thanks for having me.
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