00:00Right. Do you think there's a possibility that all of that material could have been deployed?
00:04I mean, I know you say there's not enough to sort of carry out a ground invasion, but to then turn around and do nothing.
00:10I mean, do you think that's an option for the Trump administration, given that they did something similar on the waters off Venezuela towards the end of last year and they ended up doing something?
00:21We were told by military experts at the time that they couldn't have deployed all of that and turned around and done nothing.
00:28Do you think do you think they will, therefore, have to come back having done something other than negotiate?
00:36Well, the key thing about Trump is he must be able to sell what he would perceive as a victory.
00:44And therefore, by caveatting the nuclear program of the Iranians, I think he could sell that as a victory.
00:49And he would have a slight heartache in that because, of course, he said that they destroyed it for forevermore after the June raids.
00:58So it is part of a pressure strategy.
01:01But the dilemma for Trump is also that all the regional actors around the Gulf are not really bought into the Americans using access basing and overflight rights because of the fact that the Iranian rhetoric has always been that if you hit us, we will get involved in a regional war.
01:20And that doesn't just mean the American facilities in the Middle East.
01:23It means a wider conflagration and therefore there's a break from the diplomatic actors around the Gulf, which also creates an uncertainty for Trump.
01:34So this is a real, real dilemma for him.
01:37And so the presence of the American firepower can be seen in a diplomatic sense as what the Americans often call a kabuki dance.
01:46It's a stylized form of doing business.
01:49What you won't get, as you had in Venezuela, I see no likelihood of a decapitation raid because that is essentially what happened in Venezuela, because Iran is protected by its geography, its distance.
02:03And another sort of maxim of the Americans has always been a ship is a fool to fight a fort.
02:09So you're not going to see large American, Mount American warships going up the Strait of Hormuz, which would make them vulnerable to the coastal defense cruise missiles of the Iranians.
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