00:00Do you find yourself more interested, Joe, in the long shots when it comes to awards markets or the this guy is plus 105 and in two weeks from now, he'll be minus 250?
00:11No, no.
00:12So it's all long shots for me.
00:14I mean, and when I look at the awards market generally, just the way I play them, I would much rather just bet the game than if I'm going to take, like you said, plus 105 with Josh Allen, let's just say, and knowing that he might be minus 400.
00:28To me, I'd rather have better value or CLV just betting the game.
00:34You're right.
00:35But the markets preseason or in September, October are where I think you could pick up the major value to your point where you had Brock Purdy and you get some of these quarterbacks where we know that it's saturated with the household names, Lamar, Josh Allen, Matt Stafford, Mahomes, where if you do have that outlier like this year, Drake May that came on in the second season,
00:58you could get that lottery ticket.
01:01But then again, even when it looks like you might be in the driver's seat, like here's Drake May in the Super Bowl, you're never through the finish line because you're dealing with the human element.
01:18And this is the debate that we have, and we had it with Belichick with the Hall of Fame, and we just, you know, you go back and forth with the awards outside of like defensive player of the year.
01:29I mean, are we not suggesting it's Miles Garrett?
01:31I mean.
01:33Oh, I mean, it's, well, it's going to be.
01:36Well, we know it's going to be, but my point is, is there any doubt?
01:42No.
01:42Okay.
01:43I don't think there is.
01:44I don't think there is either, but that's my point.
01:46Like that's, he sets the sack record.
01:48He dominates on a terrible team.
01:51Yeah.
01:51Obviously, you know, just putting up those type of numbers, and it's still not a guarantee.
01:57I mean, because again, it's, you're not dealing with wins and losses.
02:01You're dealing with objectivity.
02:02Yeah, I hear that.
02:04I guess what is interesting is because of that, right?
02:10So the way the market moves, you have to realize that, you know, nothing is final until it's final, right?
02:17So it allows you to fade things in season.
02:21And perception.
02:21Yes, right?
02:22Where it's like, oh, this is over.
02:24This is over.
02:25And then very quickly, it's not.
02:28I mean, we're, we're going to get into the MVP award.
02:31Ultimately, Stafford, I mean, he, they lost the Thursday.
02:36I know he was great, but they lost that Thursday night game against the Seahawks where it was supposed to be the clincher.
02:43And kind of, it was forgiven because again, he was just for anyone who doesn't remember in that loss through for 457 yards, three touchdowns, no interception.
02:55Yeah, it's, you probably keep your head held high after that.
02:58And then he lost to Atlanta through three interceptions in the game.
03:02And so, well, how did he, so how did he storm back week 18?
03:07He threw four touchdowns against the Cardinals and Drake may just really did nothing because, right.
03:12I don't know.
03:13They played Miami.
03:14It was a bit of a fake game.
03:15It just, they decided, you know, whatever it is, what it is.
03:17Like, um, I will say though, one thing that I harp on a lot is, okay, so coming into two seasons ago, I would have told anybody, hey, listen, just figure out who's going to be the number one seed.
03:32That's how you're going to get to the award.
03:33And last year's two number one seeds were the Detroit Lions and the Kansas City Chiefs and neither Jared Goff or Pat Mahomes were in the race.
03:41Should have been an alarm bell that the Mahomes stuff wasn't going great.
03:44Everyone ignored it.
03:44That's okay.
03:45This year's number one seeds, Bo Nix and Sam Darnold.
03:50Not only were they not in the race, we're expecting this to go to a wildcard quarterback.
03:56Now, I get it.
03:58They're not your typical wildcard team in the Los Angeles Rams because they won 12 games, but like, I don't know, teams, 12 games, wildcard.
04:09I mean, they didn't win 15 games and end up a wildcard team.
04:11So do you think Darnold couldn't win it?
04:13No, no, not even a little bit.
04:15What I do think, though, is that what became the understanding of the MVP award is changing.
04:23Again, if I would have said, hey, Joe, Miles Garrett is going to break the sack record, but they're going to win five games in Cleveland.
04:32How big of a favorite do you think he is to a defensive player of the year?
04:37In my opinion, a favorite, not minus 80,000.
04:42No, I would have made him minus 230, three, minus three to one.
04:46Five wins is not, you know what I mean?
04:47Like, you would have thought.
04:48But again, when you see, that's the problem.
04:51You're talking about, it would be like somebody breaking Eric Dickerson's record.
04:56Sure.
04:56Okay.
04:57And what is that, like if it's Derrick Henry or Saquon.
05:00Okay.
05:00And okay, what would we have made that potential favorite?
05:04Well, you know, it's a record.
05:06So you put them in the mix.
05:08If you had, I'm just throwing a number.
05:10I know it's a 6,000-yard passer with 50 touchdowns.
05:13What is that type of, like my point is, when we look at the record on the defensive side
05:20of the ball, that is the one area where on defensive MVP, it trumps everything because
05:26it's a sack leader.
05:27It's a one-time record that right now nobody's hit.
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