00:00let's start with the nfc championship game let's see if we can pick that winner that's the seattle
00:04seahawks and it's the los angeles rams game time 6 30 p.m on sunday and away we go favorite in the
00:11clubhouse right now sure it's going to be seattle trading at a roughly minus two and a half if you
00:16take a look though just picking the game and the winner 58 chance on seattle 44 chance on the los
00:23angeles rams joe yeah you know it feels like the market has priced seattle as a distinct favorite
00:32and when you look at the history between these two teams and the rosters you know i get lumen field
00:38used to be a really big advantage but on a neutral field donnie i got these two teams where maybe the
00:45rams are a little bit better in this one here it feels like the market is much more efficient with
00:53the rams at 44 cents here because the championship pedigree with stafford and mcveigh plus the
01:00experience i think you're paying a premium for seattle's noise advantage with the 12th man it
01:06feels like what we call a retail trap where that's what the public is going to be looking at but the
01:12smart money usually fades home favorites in division rivals i'll tell you what else you take a look at
01:18this game and sam darnold so much up in the air is that oblique going to be completely healthy that's
01:22certainly going to play into it joe but we always like to take a look at different markets that we
01:26can use specifically with calci did you know you can invest in joe if you think a player is going
01:31to score a touchdown to the yes but the best part joe you can actually invest in the no how many times
01:38have you said to yourself jackson smith and jigba look at that price point if he's going to score a
01:42touchdown i'd love to see what the no is you can actually invest in the no if you think jackson smith
01:48and jigba scores a touchdown he's listed at 48 cents but the no 53 cents here a great way to
01:55try to invest and use different markets to your advantage joe yeah all about correlating the profits
02:00right donny that's what it's all about uh making sure that you have multiple markets uh and situations
02:07in order to be able if you you know listen if you went on one you went on a bunch of them
02:12and by the way the nfc championship winner if you were trading way back when this first came
02:17available in april two percent there for the seattle seahawks as you see today 58 chance for
02:24the seahawks to be the nfc championship game winner let's flip it over to the afc game that's the earlier
02:29game on sunday the new england patriots and the denver broncos you take a look at this 69 chance
02:36that the new england patriots will advance to the super bowl as the afc championship game winner
02:41the denver broncos currently trading at 33 joe yeah i mean new england trading at nearly 69 cents
02:49here is a massive price for a road team in a championship game the market it feels is strictly
02:56investing against the broncos backup quarterback situation here with jared stidham in for bo nicks
03:03and it feels like traders are absolutely terrified of investing in a backup quarterback against let's
03:10face it you know it's vrabel but it's a belichick era standard type defense that the market still
03:16believes they have here so to me the value denver at 32 cents at home in mile high it's a system play
03:25because if you believe defense and home field advantage matters more than the qb then you're
03:31getting nearly a two to one return on a team that just found a way to win uh against buffalo it is kind
03:38of a hold your nose and invest situation but it is a contrarian spot one that often pays big dividends
03:44and take a look at calci here 33 chance here for the denver broncos to win this football game a 100
03:50investment comes back to 304 but if also if you're a no type player saying yeah i don't think they're
03:56going to advance here 68 that pays back 148 at this point so many options to take a look at between
04:02the nfc championship game and the afc championship game this week
04:06you
Comments