00:00Threats of sweeping American tariffs on Canadian goods are being downplayed by policy analysts
00:06who say the rhetoric is political posturing, not an imminent shift in policy.
00:11Barrett Bingley of the Asia Pacific Foundation of Canada says warnings of 100% tariff
00:17are part of maneuvering ahead of scheduled reviews of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement,
00:23not a concrete plan to disrupt trade.
00:25Bingley said Washington already has a defined withdrawal mechanism under the current agreement,
00:33reducing the need for dramatic tariff threats.
00:37It's also useful to remember that under KUSMA, in Article 32.10, the non-market country FTA clause,
00:48the U.S., or any signatory, but the U.S. has a remedy if Canada were to sign with a non-market country,
00:55they are able to terminate KUSMA, right?
00:59So, in fact, the U.S. already has a remedy here.
01:02Donald Trump calls that his deal.
01:05I think he may possibly have forgotten that they negotiated that part of KUSMA,
01:10and it just, I think, speaks to the sort of the general bluster nature of this
01:15as opposed to a seriously considered policy response by the U.S. president.
01:19Tensions escalated after Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney publicly criticized U.S. trade policy
01:28at the World Economic Forum, drawing a sharp response from Donald Trump.
01:32The U.S. president said Canada relies heavily on Washington and warned of punitive tariffs
01:38if Ottawa pursued a separate trade deal with China.
01:41That warning was later diffused when Carney clarified that Canada had no plans for a China agreement
01:48and would fully comply with its U.S. MCA commitments.
01:53The dispute intensified again after Trump announced the decertification of Bombardier jets
01:58and threatened steep tariffs unless Canada approved U.S. manufactured aircraft.
02:03Despite the sharp language, Bingley argued that even if a 100% tariff were imposed,
02:10the immediate burden would fall on U.S. buyers rather than Canadian producers.
02:15These are the very hard-to-replace goods, and I would put aluminum and heavy oil in that bucket.
02:23You'd have the easier-to-replace goods, things like auto parts and some agriculture goods,
02:31and then the highly replaceable goods where the U.S. may already make the thing.
02:36They're in direct competition with their Canadian, other Canadian businesses,
02:41their Canadian competitors, and or they can source from somewhere else,
02:44Europe or Japan or China, et cetera, right?
02:47So in the hard-to-replace bucket, I think you would initially see the pain being taken by the U.S. buyer.
02:56They would be the ones primarily paying the tariff on this.
03:01They would be the ones primarily paying attention to the impacts of the sandbox.
03:02So in the hard-to-replaceěĄ, I think it would be the ones primarily paying attention to the dental deprive system.
03:04They had a lot of work that was primarily paying attention to the
03:19ăă that I'd like to be the ones in the streets.
03:21So they needed to be the ones in the middle-replace bucket.
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