00:00Here on the forecast feed we have a lot to talk about. We want to talk about the concept of a bombsite.
00:05A cyclone and a blizzard. We are likely to see both of these things take place in the-
00:10Mid-Atlantic and parts of the Northeast. I think I want to put the word parts of in Italian-
00:15Alex and bold and maybe underline it as well because this storm is not going to-
00:20It will bring some of you a flake but it will bring others significant snow and wind-
00:25And coastal flooding as well. First off, what is a bomb cyclone? Again, there are some of these phrases-
00:30In terms that get a lot of media attention and we use them here-
00:35As well because they are actually legitimate words, terms and-
00:40Phrases used by the American Meteorological Society. This is not just-
00:45A bomb cyclone is specifically a low pressure system-
00:50That goes through rapid strengthening and there is a standard to this. We are talking about 20-
00:5524 millibars of strengthening in 24 hours or less. So these are-
01:00There are storms that rapidly strengthen. Sometimes they are tropical systems, sometimes they are nor'easters and-
01:05Sometimes they are just regular low pressure systems that really wrap intensifying quickly-
01:10Wrap up and intensify very rapidly through parts of the Great Lakes region-
01:15Sometimes they are tropical systems-
01:16They typically occur over or near oceans because-
01:20Oceans-
01:20Oceanic heat content and the Gulf Stream, even in the winter, can be a huge drive-
01:25Never fuel for storms. This storm that we are going to be seeing-
01:30Develop over the next few days here. We are going to be taking you through some model graphics and so forth-
01:35Take you to the surface here. And here we have again what will become-
01:40An area of low pressure that initially-
01:43Let's go-
01:44We have to commit to-
01:45Let's go-
01:45Having to a model for this. Let's go-
01:46Let's go-
01:47Let's go-
01:48Let's go-
01:49Let's go-
01:50around, we're at one o'clock.
01:52You can see a closed contour for a baby area.
01:55You have low pressure, and it's not yet down to a full thousand millibars.
01:59It's around maybe 10 o'clock.
02:00There's a closed contour at 10 o'clock, maybe 1,001 millibars.
02:0510 o'clock, somewhere in that, but not deep enough to crank out a closed contour for
02:1010 for 1,000 millibars.
02:12As we take you forward in time, look at this.
02:15We're going to go from 1 p.m.
02:16Saturday, a little more than 1,000 millibars.
02:201 p.m. Sunday, we're strengthening it rapidly.
02:23In fact, it's...
02:25rapidly strengthened even before it goes off the map here.
02:28Only 18 hours into this,
02:30look at this.
02:31Here's 980 millibars.
02:33Four less than that.
02:35976, four less than that, 972.
02:37That's going to become a bomb cyclone in less...
02:40less than 24 hours, and then it goes off the map to the east.
02:43That's another part of this, the off the map to...
02:45the east is a consideration in this conversation.
02:47But overall, the bomb cyclone, it's going to verify...
02:50rapid strengthening, we've got the gulf moisture...
02:52or the gulf stream, I should say, the gulf stream.
02:55And that warmth, offshore, fueling this in a big way in contrast to...
03:00the really cold air, a loft.
03:02That's part of the storyline.
03:04So that's what...
03:05the bomb cyclone is, and this is going to be one of them.
03:07Let's go back to the graphics.
03:08This will probably...
03:10become a blizzard for some.
03:12And again, some is the key word there.
03:14So as we look back...
03:15at the definition of a blizzard.
03:17Is a blizzard about the amount of snow?
03:19No.
03:19We could...
03:20see an inch of snow in a blizzard.
03:22Sometimes in North Dakota, in Alaska, a blizzard warning.
03:25may verify as correct, even if you only get an inch or two of snow.
03:29What is...
03:30it's all about...
03:30it's all about blowing snow with wind frequently gusting...
03:35over 35 miles per hour.
03:37It doesn't have to be sustained necessarily.
03:38It could be frequent gusts.
03:39It could be...
03:40sustained at 25, but frequently gusting to 38 for three or more hours.
03:44So that's the stipulation.
03:45The toughest part of this to verify is that.
03:47And then you need to have a quarter mile visibility...
03:50not because of fog, but because of snow being lofted into the air.
03:52Where could we see that with this storm?
03:55We're looking at two areas.
03:57And again, we have concerns about how much...
04:00snow is going to fall in Atlantic City.
04:01It's going to be a close call there.
04:03But we do expect...
04:05to see a blizzard down into parts of Southeast Virginia, Northeast...
04:10North Carolina, strong winds closest to the coast, stronger winds.
04:13There's less friction over water.
04:15And we have some question marks.
04:16When we're honest with you, we want to be transparent and honest.
04:18We do have question marks.
04:20We want to emphasize what we're sure of, but we need to be honest about the uncertainty
04:23of the Jersey Shore forecast here with...
04:25And we're also likely to see a blizzard in Cape Cod, Nantucket, North Carolina...
04:30versus Vineyard, maybe Block Island, maybe Montauk, and...
04:35And perhaps into Boston.
04:37I suspect it's more likely in Boston than it is in the...
04:40Jersey Shore, and I'll show you why.
04:41Our forecast is, again, we're on the ragged edge of this...
04:45storm system if you're in the Jersey Shore.
04:47So the pieces of the puzzle come together.
04:49We've got a strong...
04:50strong low-pressure system that strengthens aloft and at the surface.
04:53I want to take us just to the...
04:55the GFS model.
04:56All four of these in this tab are the GFS.
05:00Here is the most recent one.
05:02I'm going to hone in on the 7 a.m. Sunday.
05:04This is the...
05:05most recent GFS is the 12Z run on the 28th.
05:08That's Wednesday.
05:09Let's go back.
05:10A little earlier in the morning, six hours earlier.
05:12Didn't change a whole lot.
05:14I've looked at the placement.
05:15What I'm looking at here is the placement of this center of low pressure.
05:19Not...
05:20much change in the past six hours.
05:22Let's go back 12 hours earlier.
05:25If anything, maybe it was a nudge closer, and now it may be a small, small, small...
05:30step farther east.
05:30Not a big change.
05:32And then you go back 24 hours ago, 18...
05:35I should say, 18 hours earlier.
05:37This was the 18Z run from Tuesday.
05:39It actually...
05:40was a little farther offshore.
05:41So again, over an 18 to 24 hour window, maybe it's...
05:45a little farther west, but still, it's...
05:48they're forecasted sometime...
05:50meteorologists make, and man, you don't sleep easy, and then you wake up the next morning
05:54to see how you...
05:55Yeah, you did.
05:55And this is a very, very much a nail-biter here for New York City and for New Jersey.
05:59Look at this.
06:00Here's the GFS.
06:01All that snow.
06:02Painfully close.
06:03If you love snow and you're in Philly, you don't...
06:05don't see a flake.
06:05It's a tough one.
06:06If you are in...
06:07Here's the European.
06:09Very...
06:10Very close.
06:11Some snow for the Jersey Shore.
06:12Heavy snow in a blizzard in Cape...
06:15Here's the European AI.
06:17A little farther east.
06:18Disappointing for the snow fans at...
06:20Coastal New Jersey.
06:21Decent snow in Cape Cod.
06:23Not in Boston.
06:24The GFS...
06:25FSAI.
06:26It brushes the coast with some snow.
06:28Nothing in Philly.
06:29Here's the...
06:30Canadian.
06:31It's a little more robust there at the Jersey Shore.
06:33Not much.
06:34Two counties.
06:35West of New York City.
06:36And the UK meant way out to sea.
06:38So what do we do with all this?
06:39We have to...
06:40make a forecast.
06:41So I'm going to close with this.
06:42And again, we're most confident...
06:45in Cape Cod.
06:46And this portion of the map.
06:47Big questions in between.
06:50And so...
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