00:00It's significant that the Prime Minister has come away with the result from his visit to
00:05China.
00:06They're not spectacular effects in terms of the British economy, but useful, the ease
00:13of visas, some improvements on trade with whisky and other products.
00:18This is all positive news.
00:21But I think the key point is that because of the erratic behaviour of President Trump,
00:27the British, like the Canadians, the French, the Germans, are having to hedge.
00:33I mean, we're having to build up relationships with the other superpower, and that's realistic,
00:39and we have to acknowledge that.
00:41So could Starmer have got more from this trip were it not for the fear of provoking Trump
00:45if he hadn't seen what happened to Carney?
00:48Yes, I think in the background there must be some worry that the Trump administration
00:55will act to punish us for not following through on their particular line on China.
01:03But there is an awful lot that must have happened in private conversation that has not been relayed.
01:08The issues around Jimmy Lai, for example.
01:12You don't make progress on issues of that kind by shouting from the rooftops.
01:16You ask the Chinese privately to say that this actually would be very helpful.
01:22And similarly, the sanctioning of the British MPs, which has been a source of considerable aggravation.
01:29I'm sure that the Chinese will get the point that it would help bilateral relations
01:34if the Chinese were to back off from that.
01:37But these are things said privately, not in any communique.
01:41What did you make of the tone of Starmer's commentary around the visit?
01:44The need to be realistic about the relationship with China, saying it needs to be more sophisticated.
01:50I think the tone that's been adopted for the visit is absolutely spot on.
01:56We have to be realistic in dealing with China.
01:59You can't be totally naive.
02:01There are security issues in cyber security.
02:04But on the other hand, Britain is no longer a great power.
02:07There is no way that Britain can lecture the Chinese on how they run their country.
02:12You know, there are many countries in the world we have to do business with.
02:15Saudi Arabia, the Emirates, which have appalling human rights records.
02:20But we have to deal with them and we have to deal with China in the same practical way.
02:24And I think given the constraints, the prime minister's tone has been absolutely right.
02:30But in the case of China, do you think the security concerns are overblown, politicised perhaps,
02:36around the embassy in London, for example?
02:39Well, there are security concerns, but the way this works, and I remember this from my days in government,
02:46I think it's very likely that the security services said there are risks here,
02:52that these are risks that can be managed.
02:54I mean, the classic precedent for this whole issue was Huawei, where certainly our own security assessment,
03:02where there are risks that they can be managed and we can have Huawei involved in our system.
03:08But they were sent away on American instructions.
03:12And I think, you know, it's very unlikely that the embassy would have been approved if the security services had vetoed it.
03:20They must have said, you know, we need to be vigilant, we're going to monitor it, but of course it can go ahead.
03:26And their reciprocity here, of course, was that the British embassy wants to expand in Beijing.
03:32So should Xi now come to Britain?
03:38Well, the idea of President Xi coming to Britain is, it's a big issue and, you know, there will be protests.
03:47Whether the Chinese will want to come under those circumstances, I don't know.
03:53The atmosphere certainly changed since 2015, when we had the last visit, the so-called golden era,
04:00there was a kind of chatty, upbeat approach.
04:03Now there is more suspicion and there's certainly more criticism from what I would call anti-China factions within the UK.
04:12So I'm not sure President Xi would want to come here against a background of protests and anger.
04:19But, you know, with skilful diplomacy, this could be achieved.
04:23And I think it would be very welcome to put our relationships on a much stronger footing.
04:28After all, we had President Trump here, there was also opposition, it's extremely well managed.
04:34And I think we could do the same with President Xi in due course.
04:38Will President Trump's foreign policy this year on Venezuela, Iran and Greenland have changed Presidency's calculus on Taiwan?
04:47I don't myself believe that there's a great deal of link between the issues of intervention in Venezuela
04:54about the United States and what's happening in Taiwan.
04:58I mean, there are serious problems for the Chinese in finding a military solution to the Taiwan problem.
05:05It is after all well over 100 miles away. The Chinese have no experience of this kind of warfare.
05:12They've never actually been involved in a war since 1979 with Vietnam, which they lost.
05:20There is clearly a lot of problems in the Chinese high command resulting in the removal of the most senior military officer.
05:28It's very unlikely under the circumstances that the Chinese would want to launch a military adventure.
05:34And when they're winning so many diplomatic battles at the moment because of Trump's erratic behavior,
05:40I doubt that they would want to put all that at risk.
05:43There is plenty of time for them.
05:45There's a commitment to reunify China before 2049.
05:52It's a long time off. I'm sure Presidency would like to have it on his CV.
05:57But I don't think there's an urgency from their point of view.
06:02And I don't think there's any linkage with the Venezuela intervention.
06:06OK, just finally, does Prime Minister Starmer need to focus more on the domestic agenda
06:12if he's going to face off the threat from reform and indeed within his own party?
06:16Well, there is a domestic set of political issues for Mr. Starmer.
06:24But, you know, as with many other governments, being successful in foreign affairs is important and useful.
06:32I mean, we have a very similar situation in France where Macron is completely paralyzed domestically,
06:38but he's able to take a leadership role in foreign affairs.
06:42Starmer has a difficult hand to play.
06:44He has to maintain a good relationship with Trump while also showing that Britain can be somewhat independent.
06:51And he's doing that well.
06:53His domestic difficulties, I'm afraid, are very serious.
06:57And they go back to the origins of this Labour government,
07:01that it came into power without a very clear program, with very little idea about what they wanted to do,
07:06made mistaken promises about taxation, which have caused all kinds of problems.
07:12But in the foreign affairs fields, Starmer can do something useful, is doing something useful,
07:17and the China visit is an example of that.
07:20that way, we don't really want to put the
07:32Buddha's own government today as well.
07:34But what he really is trying to dig into it?
07:34So, can you go over to the right place?
07:35I'm just going over to the left.
07:37So that's a great idea from that sort of thing.
07:37What's going on behind you?
07:39What's going on behind you?
07:40What's going on behind you?
07:41Of course.
07:42What's the right place?
07:43What's going on behind you?
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