00:00Looking forward to your analysis and let's start with that question we were discussing there with Oli, the motivation behind what President Trump is doing here.
00:07Quoting Greenland of course extensively, we've heard a lot from the President on that subject, also the Nobel Peace Prize now.
00:15But if we stick with the Greenland story, is it possible that President Trump has seen NATO, EU NATO members sending a few troops to Greenland as something threatening
00:24when actually Europe had meant it to demonstrate the seriousness that they treat Arctic security?
00:31Is it possible that that is a misunderstanding that has happened here?
00:34Absolutely. I mean, I would have thought, I think we all would have thought that this would be seen as Europeans doing more for defense and security.
00:41President Trump has clearly wished to see that. And instead, he's taken it as an affront that Europeans are challenging the president.
00:50And he's clearly ratcheting up and accelerating the threat.
00:54And so, you know, the risk right now for Europe, I think, is how do you manage this president?
00:59And there's clearly a rapidly developing sentiment across European leaders, across European publics,
01:08that Europe should come together and take a strong line, that this will win the day.
01:13And the example is being drawn to China and others who have been more effective, especially at China, I think.
01:20But, you know, there's a critical distinction here, which is that China has had real leverage with its threat to withhold the export of rare earth critical minerals.
01:31Europe doesn't have the same leverage. And so it's a very different calculation.
01:35It's not only clearly unity is important, clearly a clear response is important.
01:40But I think, you know, sort of taking that case and plopping it on to the European case risks an escalatory trade war, which would do everybody harm.
01:51I think the other thing is to note that American consumers are increasingly going to bear the cost of tariffs.
01:56They didn't in the beginning, towards the end of 2025, it was sort of looking at 50 percent costs deflected to U.S. consumers.
02:03We're looking at 60 plus percent. So working through American consumers is, you know, it's a long term play, but it's probably a good one.
02:13Americans don't like what's happening in Greenland. They're not on the side of the president on this issue.
02:18So I think some really nuanced thinking is absolutely essential.
02:22And what kind of response is President Trump going to get from Republicans, from his own party?
02:27Some of that response that's been highlighted over the weekend has been quite critical.
02:32I wonder how that is going to feed back into his thinking.
02:34Yeah. And so here, you know, the Republicans are dividing slowly on this.
02:39We've seen some divisions within MAGA on other issues.
02:42This is putting them in a very difficult spot.
02:45I think in general, you know, if you were to talk to people privately and they were honest in the Republican Party,
02:49they would say they did not support this policy.
02:52There's no material reason that the United States needs to take over Greenland or possess it using military forces widely opposed.
03:03But the question, as we know, for the past year has been who will speak out.
03:07And again, domestically, Americans, Republicans, what levers do they have to constrain the U.S. president?
03:15We're waiting for that Supreme Court decision on tariffs.
03:18If that ruling is against the president, that produces a delay.
03:22But, you know, coming back to this question of Europe and tariffs,
03:26there are two very interesting, significant products that Denmark exports to the United States.
03:32One hundred percent of Ozempic comes to the United States.
03:36It comes from Denmark.
03:37Seventy four percent of insulin.
03:39Those are really critical products, differently critical, but really important products for vast swaths of Americans.
03:45Insulin clearly critical for the American health system.
03:48So there are levers, but it could be very risky to pull those levers.
03:54So the European drug makers or at least weight loss drugs could be our could be our rare earths.
03:59As we look at the Chinese example of how to push back, maybe that's taking it too far.
04:03But there are levers that can be pulled.
04:05There are levers, but there are workarounds.
04:06We know that, you know, there's a crowded market.
04:08There's a developing market, a crowded market.
04:09Eli Lilly might be happy with that turnaround in events if that was to come.
04:13Would you be advising European governments to go for that so-called bazooka, that anti-coercion instrument?
04:19So, you know, I think you need to drill down on that.
04:23I've heard some people say that the anti-coercion instrument is not nearly as strong as it's made out to be in the media right now.
04:30So real question about what lever that is.
04:33And again, I think, you know, this is a moment for very, very savvy diplomacy.
04:40And there's likely to be a gap between the rhetoric and actually the instruments that are taken.
04:46And now, you know, once you've got the European public, when you start talking about sovereignty, as you well know, Greenland and Denmark, you get the public angry.
04:55And so the European leaders are going to have to manage the public, their publics.
05:00They want to see a stronger response.
05:01The unity is critical.
05:04But my fear is that this could lead to a very, very escalatory trade war, which would have very negative impacts on Americans, American consumers, on Europeans, and comes at a time of great security challenge.
05:18So one doesn't want to see, you know, the word appeasement not appropriately apply, but one doesn't want to see appeasement.
05:24But at the same time, Europe is not in the same position as China.
05:28It is a very tricky set of calculations right now.
05:30How do you think Beijing and Moscow will be reading these events?
05:33I mean, wonderful distractions.
05:35You know, China, as we know, has got its eyes on the prize of global leadership, of, you know, of its developing its economy strategically, managing Donald Trump very effectively.
05:47I think we're all surprised over the last year.
05:50And as reflected in the national security strategy, that the U.S.-China relationship is actually moderated.
05:55But when they watch Europeans fighting with Americans, you know, hooray.
06:02I mean, a big distraction from the things that they wish to accomplish.
06:06And again, you know, with the war in Ukraine ongoing, it takes America's eyes off the prize.
06:12It takes Europeans' eyes off the prize.
06:14It's really essential to get the transatlantic relationship back on track.
06:19Yeah.
06:19But what do you think the word ally means in Washington these days, Leslie?
06:24Does it have any meaning at all?
06:26I mean, if you trained in the world of business, then maybe it's a term that you don't see as all that relevant.
06:32And maybe that's what we're seeing playing out in politics right now.
06:35Look, the word ally, it's a formal definition, and it's about the security part of the relationship.
06:42It's not, you know, partners kind of cover the broader relationship.
06:45But I think it's really critical to recognize the moment that we are in.
06:50Donald Trump is a singular leader, and he does not reflect.
06:55And we know this, right?
06:56The Chicago Council on Global Affairs has been polling the American public since 1974.
07:01And the American public's views are very strong on NATO.
07:03They don't wish to see military force used in Venezuela, in Greenland.
07:09The president of the United States does not track either with the broader Republican sentiment
07:17or with the Democratic sentiment or with the American public on numerous things,
07:22even though people have clearly folded to support him because he's got a huge amount of power
07:28and he's willing to bust through those norms in ways that are, quite frankly, threatening to people's individual security.
07:36So this is the challenge.
07:38And I think we all know that at the end of the day, getting the president to moderate in any meaningful way
07:43is something that Americans are going to have to do.
07:45Do you think the bond markets played a role in April of last year when tariffs on Liberation Day were announced?
07:51We're not seeing that kind of reaction today and that the level of tariffs is not at the same point.
07:56But at what point, we're talking about the domestic political constraints, potentially, on President Trump's aspirations.
08:01Do you think the market starts to play that role as well?
08:03Or has Scott Besson now been pulled so firmly into Trump's orbit that even he is not going to be the one putting pressure on this president?
08:09Americans at the high end, those invested in the stock market, are doing very well.
08:15You know that the growth in the economy is very good.
08:18The jobs are, you know, the rate of job creation appears to be coming down.
08:22That could affect people.
08:23And so I think you've got to differentiate between, you know, upper middle class and wealthy Americans who are benefiting
08:29and those ordinary Americans who are feeling the affordability, you know, the word of the day in the United States is affordability.
08:38This is where people are unhappy.
08:40This is where the administration is so far not delivered.
08:42But how does that actually have any sort of effect on the president?
08:46Not until the midterms.
08:48So there are very few points in which that sort of ordinary swath of Americans have real leverage, have real influence,
08:56and elections are the primary mechanism.
08:58But for now, broader pressure, you know, the economy is doing very well.
09:03Everyday life, I can tell you, in the United States, we hear, we see and we hear and we know the stories about ICE.
09:09Everybody's watching Minneapolis.
09:10The president's considering using the Insurrection Act, potentially sending 1,500 troops in.
09:16The streets of Minneapolis are extraordinary to watch.
09:19It's upsetting to people.
09:21But you've got, you know, you've got a country in which many wealthy Americans are doing phenomenally well.
09:27And therein lies a tension.
09:30You know, without that changing, it's hard to see the president moderating.
09:34He's delivering for the high end of the United States.
09:37OK, Leslie, thank you very much indeed for your take on what is happening and how to think about it in a broader context.
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