00:00Our analysis, Simon Mabin, joins us, Professor of International Politics and Biblity Studies.
00:05The University of Lancaster, up there in the northwest of England, great to see you.
00:10Professor, as always, Iran, an isolated rogue state. Will this move by the EU?
00:15Change anything. Give us a sense of what this designation of the...
00:20Islamic Revolution regard as a terror group. What it actually means.
00:25Well, I think what it does is it contributes to the growing pressure that the Islamic Republic of Iran is...
00:30And in particular, the regime, the supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali.
00:35Khamenei. The pressure is building. This comes at a time when the US...
00:40Massive armada, to coin Donald Trump's phrase, has arrived in the...
00:45Gulf, and now there's diplomatic pressure, legal pressure as well for that matter.
00:50By virtue of the prescription of the IRGC, all contributing to this sense of a...
00:55ratcheting up of tensions. It's a move that many opponents of the Islamic Republic have...
01:00been calling for, but Europe and the UK in particular have been thus far resistant.
01:05But Europe has decided, obviously, that today, now is the time to really put...
01:10put pressure on the state and to prescribe the IRGC.
01:14Change of position. Also, the words of Kayakalas are talking about.
01:19A state that kills its own people is actually rushing towards its own demise.
01:23Is there really that?
01:24Is there that sense internationally that this is a point of inflection for Iran?
01:29I think so. I mean, we've been here before, of course.
01:32We've been here in the green moon.
01:34In 2009, we've been here in the so-called women's life freedom movement.
01:39A couple of years ago, and at those points, it seemed like the regime was on the ropes.
01:44This seems somehow different, qualitatively different in terms of the size.
01:49of the protests, in terms of the breadth of groups involved in the protests.
01:54And in terms of the sheer ferocity of the...
01:59regime's response, the death toll is devastating, of course.
02:03And I think this...
02:04points to a regime that is certainly in a dire...
02:09financial state, a dire political state, a dire social state, and it's lost any type of...
02:14legitimacy at home and indeed abroad.
02:16Do you see anything in...
02:19in the fact that the US is sending its fleet to the region?
02:24Right now, and this decision is occurring from Europe at this stage.
02:29Or is it just a coincidence?
02:30Is this a sign of better cooperation between the two blocks, do you think?
02:34Quite possibly.
02:35Quite possibly.
02:36Quite possibly.
02:37I mean, we don't know what was...
02:39what was...
02:39just when the EU leaders met with Donald Trump...
02:44around the Greenland issue.
02:45We don't know if there was some type of agreement made where the...
02:49Europe would...
02:50would closer align itself with the United States on Iran.
02:54But...
02:54I think this...
02:55this is the sort of...
02:56the coming together of a whole host of different issues.
02:59the...
03:00the...
03:01devastating and deeply troubling...
03:04killing of so many iranians by the state and i think that's put
03:09a lot of pressure on on europe given that it's it's it's invested so much in terms
03:14of its human rights record it's calls for improved human rights across the
03:19gulf and i think as well with the us uh building up its its military
03:24presence in the gulf i think europe is maybe hedging its bets and wanting to be seen
03:29at least to be doing the same thing as the united states if indeed it isn't already co-ordinated
03:34with washington simon as you're speaking it's just popped up in front of me via the wise service
03:38iran's foreign ministry it says the claims by the eu they're concerned about human rights in iran is
03:43a blatant lie and hypocrisy can you respond to that
03:48i can yes uh i think that is the sort of thing that one would expect from a regime that
03:53has just killed tens of thousands of its own people i think it's it's shameful that
03:58that this has happened i'm not at all surprised that it is trying to to diminish
04:03and and dismiss the claims that that it has killed these these
04:08tens of thousands of people if not more uh i've spoken to people in iran fortunately in the
04:13past few days who've seen the death toll who've seen the horrors who were there who've seen and
04:18endured what must have been a hugely traumatic experience for them and so to come out and
04:23say that this is this is a fabrication i'm not surprised but i'm also um
04:28yeah it's entirely predictable iran's foreign ministry too saying that iran reserves the right to it
04:33legitimate and lawful rights to take reciprocal measures against the eu's decision to
04:38classify the revolutionary guard as a terror group and one wonders about the two
04:43french nationals uh who are still in tehran uh whether that would affect their safety
04:48uh yeah well we know that iran has got a history of using hostage diplomacy
04:53and prisoner diplomacy to try and exert influence we saw that uh with australia
04:58a number of years ago we've seen that with nazanin zakari radcliffe in the uk so i think
05:03it's it's it's a real worry i i don't want to add to any anxieties of
05:15you
05:08but we know that iran has a track record of this and i would hope that
05:13for
05:13french officials eu officials uh other officials who have any type of sway over this
05:18are doing what they can to ensure that that this does not become a serious issue
05:23indeed cesse of color jacques parry released from evan prison but still uh in the french
05:28french embassy unable to get out of uh the country of iran
05:42you
05:33uh simon just thinking about the the possibility of trump following
05:47you
05:38through with what he's been saying about a striker on iran of course he did it last june
05:42uh he said he could do it again
05:43he keeps talking about the firepower and the strength and the ability that the u.s would have to
05:56you
05:48use his hyperbole his his very bellicose words kind of wipe out iran it is
05:53is this an issue where trump isn't lying isn't twisting the truth the u.s is capable of doing that
05:58yeah it certainly seems that way we've seen uh a small
06:03yeah it certainly seems that way we've seen uh a small
06:03yeah it certainly seems that way we've seen uh a small
06:03yeah it certainly seems that way we've seen uh a small
06:03yeah it certainly seems that way we've seen uh a small
06:03yeah it certainly seems that way we've seen uh a small
06:03yeah it certainly seems that way we've seen uh a small
06:03yeah it certainly seems that way we've seen uh a small
06:03yeah it certainly seems that way we've seen uh a small
06:03yeah it certainly seems that way we've seen uh a small
06:03yeah it certainly seems that way we've seen uh a small
06:03yeah it certainly seems that way we've seen uh a small
06:04yeah it certainly seems that way we've seen a small uh a small
06:04of U.S. military might during the 12-day war last June.
06:07And I think it's...
06:09It's perfectly plausible that the might of the U.S. military could be...
06:14...against the Islamic Republic.
06:16But whether that is then able to...
06:19...to eviscerate, to hollow out the Islamic Republic itself, this system...
06:24...of government that's been in place for close to five decades is another thing altogether.
06:28There are very...
06:29...serious questions about the type of strikes that Donald Trump may or may not.
06:34...endorse what the end goals are, what the questions are that he's trying to resolve.
06:39Is this about the nuclear issue?
06:40Is it about regime change?
06:42Is it about supporting the protesters?
06:44And empowering the protesters?
06:45Or is it about something else altogether?
06:47We just don't know.
06:48And that's part of the...
06:49...the problem with Donald Trump.
06:50I was in Jordan a couple of weeks ago.
06:52It seemed as if a strike was going to be...
06:54...taking place.
06:54There were rumours of airspace closures.
06:57Embassies were evacuated.
06:59...across the gulf.
07:00And then he backed down because there was some dialogue.
07:03There was some...
07:04...diplomatic pressure put onto him.
07:05And now here we are again.
07:07Part of the problem is we just don't...
07:09...know what the end goal is.
07:10We don't know what the medium-term goal is.
07:12And we don't know what the short-term goal is with Donald Trump.
07:15Simon Maben, as always, pleasure speaking to you.
07:16Thank you very much for the light you shed on what is...
07:19...a very complex story and a very serious story too.
07:21Simon Maben, professor of international politics and middle...
07:24...e-studies at the University of Lancaster.
07:26Pleasure speaking with you, sir.
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