Speaking with FRANCE 24's Sharon Gaffney, Arang Keshavarzian, Author and Professor of Middle Eastern and Islamic Studies at New York University, says that "there's so few good options for Iranians at this current juncture that [Reza Pahlavi] is the only concrete name that can come to the fore", adding that "important democratic figures in Iran don't have the organisational capacity to come together to build a big coalition".
Visit our website: http://www.france24.com
Like us on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/FRANCE24.English
Follow us on Twitter: https://twitter.com/France24_en
00:03The US president is urging Iranians to keep protesting against the country's theocratic
00:08leadership as international outrage grows over a crackdown one rights group says has
00:14likely killed thousands.
00:16The regime is insisting that it's regained control of the streets after more than two
00:20weeks of nationwide unrest that's posed one of the biggest challenges to the clerical
00:25leadership since it came to power in the 1979 Islamic Revolution.
00:30Rights groups say nearly 17,000 protesters have been detained as concerns meant that at
00:36least one man already risks imminent execution.
00:40With more on the international reaction, here's Eliza Herbert.
00:45As patchy internet and phone services slowly start to return to Iran, more limited footage,
00:51such as this undated shot of protesters, is circulating outside of the country.
00:56And the full scale of the crackdown is beginning to take shape.
01:01From Geneva on Tuesday, a spokesperson for the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights referenced
01:06conservative figures, saying hundreds of people have been killed and thousands arrested.
01:11The killing of peaceful demonstrators must stop.
01:16The labelling of protesters as terrorists to justify violence against them is unacceptable.
01:24The true death toll could be a lot higher.
01:27According to US-based human rights activist news agency, some 2,000 people have been killed.
01:33And Human Rights Watch says reports of other heinous violations and crimes are continuing to emerge,
01:39including that those detained are at risk of secret, arbitrary executions,
01:44as authorities have accused protesters of being enemies of God, which carries the death penalty.
01:50On Tuesday, the EU's foreign policy chief, Kayakalas, said additional sanctions on Iran were being discussed.
01:57And Germany's chancellor said the bloc's foreign ministers were working to ensure that
02:01a peaceful transition to a democratically legitimate government can take place in the country.
02:06Words that need to be backed by action and driven by the will of the Iranian people,
02:12according to some analysts.
02:15They don't want an Islamic republic.
02:17They should have listened to the activists on the ground who have been calling for a transition.
02:23One of the biggest question marks remains around what the United States is planning.
02:27President Donald Trump has dialled up the pressure by repeatedly threatening military intervention
02:32under the guise of a regime change.
02:35And on Tuesday, he took to social media and urged protesters to keep going,
02:39saying he had cancelled all meetings with Iranian officials and that, quote,
02:44help is on its way.
02:45For more, we're joined now by Iran Keshavazian, author and professor of Middle Eastern and Islamic studies
02:53at New York University.
02:55Thanks so much for being with us on the programme.
02:58As we heard there, Donald Trump saying help is on its way.
03:01He's already announced tariffs for Iran's trading partners.
03:05He is this evening threatening what he says will be very strong action if Iran goes as far
03:11as executing some of these protesters.
03:13How do you think Donald Trump is going to respond to what's happening in the country?
03:21Good evening.
03:22Well, it's always very difficult to predict Donald Trump's actions.
03:27Frankly, I'm not even sure he and his team have a precise plan.
03:32While, of course, Iran has been on the U.S. foreign agenda for many years, decades,
03:39you know, he came into the presidency wanting to focus not on the Middle East.
03:45And yet and yet again, he's been dragged into Middle East issues.
03:50The military options are there, but supporting the protesters can't be done with just simply
03:57shooting missiles and bombing, for instance, the nuclear targets, as the United States and Israel did in the summer.
04:06I suspect a lot of the discussion is around trying to support the protesters when it comes to communications,
04:14access to Internet and information.
04:18Other than that, I'm at a bit of a loss as to what can be done.
04:24The sort of action that took place in Venezuela would be far more complicated than the Iranian case,
04:29where Iran is much farther away from the United States, the location of the supreme leader
04:37and the main generals are scattered and harder to locate and so forth.
04:42And you mentioned communication there around with the Internet blackouts that have been imposed on people in Iran.
04:48Is it possible to actually have a clear picture of what's happening on the ground?
04:52Do you have any indication from people that you've perhaps spoken with?
04:55Yes, it's been very difficult these last, now it's about six days.
05:02I personally have only had a very spotty communication with my relatives there.
05:11And it's very unclear.
05:13Even the people within Iran themselves are not sure what has taken place.
05:17Remember, it's not only the people from the outside can't communicate with people in Iran,
05:21but Iranians within the country don't have information about what's happening in different cities, different places.
05:29It is clearly there's been a lot of brutality, a lot of violence unleashed by the security forces in the past three, four days.
05:39We know hundreds, unfortunately, maybe even thousands have been killed.
05:42We also know that there's been a significant amount of violence by some of the members of the protests.
05:50We know that the government itself has named security officials that have been killed and shot and so forth.
05:57So it's a confused and confusing situation where, while it is nice for Donald Trump to argue that the protesters can seize institutions,
06:07there's very little evidence that there is this sort of mass organizations developed by the protesters or, for instance, by Reza Pahlavi to take on that task of taking over,
06:19for instance, ministries or radio and TV stations or anything like that.
06:26We're far, far from that level of organizational capacity by opponents to the regime.
06:34And we've heard a lot of speculation in the last few days as well about how this could possibly be the end of the line for the regime.
06:41How vulnerable do you believe the Iranian government is here?
06:45It's survived a lot in the past from wars, rebellion, isolation, sanctions.
06:51Do you think this is the end of the line for it or are we even close to that?
06:56You're absolutely right to underline all of the challenges the regime has faced over the past 47 years,
07:03but especially the last, let's say, 10, 15 years, there's been countless protests, waves of protests,
07:09some of it around elections, some of it around women's rights issues,
07:14some of it around fundamental economic and social welfare issues.
07:18This moment, though, is a truly deep crisis because you have a kind of a confluence of all of these factors coming together all at once.
07:28You have this dire economic situation where clearly large portions of the population simply don't trust
07:34and believe that the regime is able to manage the economic crisis, the lack of access to hard currency,
07:42the skyrocketing inflation.
07:44Meanwhile, the regime also this summer was deeply weakened militarily and sort of embarrassed by the Israeli attack,
07:52not only on the country, but its own generals and so forth.
07:55So the regime is also weakened on the political front.
08:02On the other hand, my sense at this current juncture is that the opposition is, while incredibly angry,
08:09having many a long list of grievances, they don't have the organizational capacities or the leadership
08:15to sustain this sort of level of protest for weeks and months.
08:21And that's, frankly, what a truly revolutionary change requires.
08:25So we're in a situation where there is a sort of a stalemate.
08:28There are many other scenarios other than the revolution that can emerge, such as a military coup
08:33or some other kind of fracturing or transformation.
08:37But there's a lot that we have to pay attention to in the coming days and weeks.
08:45And what do you make of these calls for the exiled son of the last Shah to be reinstalled, Reza Pahlavi?
08:52How wide is his support base in Iran?
08:54Well, I mean, one thing that can be said is that his, in a sense, his name recognition
09:02and his public calling out of support for him in this past two weeks has far more than it was,
09:10for instance, two, three years ago during the Women's Life Freedom protests or earlier years.
09:16But the confusing part for many of us analysts is when people take to the streets and say
09:22long-lived the Shah, for instance, what do they exactly mean?
09:26Do they actually want the return of monarchy and Reza Pahlavi?
09:30Or what I'm more sympathetic to is a notion that there are so few good options for Iranians
09:35at this current juncture that he is the only concrete name that can come to the fore,
09:42which is a sad situation because there are many important democratic figures in Iran,
09:49some of them unfortunately languishing in prisons, but they don't have the organizational capacity
09:58to come together to build a big coalition.
10:01And until this moment, Reza Pahlavi has not truly reached out to neither other opposition
10:07figures outside and inside the country, but he hasn't even really reached out to
10:11the Iranian bureaucracy or members of the military to draw them away from the regime.
10:19These are exactly the sort of steps that most revolutionary leaders do is to actually try to build
10:25a broad coalition intent.
10:29Most of Reza Pahlavi's energies these past couple of years has been visiting politicians
10:35and capitals of foreign countries, U.S. and Europe and Israel and so forth.
10:41I don't see that as a recipe for supporting the deeply aggrieved Iranian protesters.
10:48And Iran, Iran is claiming as well that this unrest is being manipulated from abroad.
10:53We might think initially here and specifically of Israel.
10:56Is Donald Trump going to be influenced by what the Israeli prime minister is perhaps saying to him?
11:01I think, obviously, Israel has a close line of communication with Donald Trump and Washington
11:11political decision makers and so forth.
11:14It will be I would be surprised if Donald Trump makes a decision and keeps Israel out in the dark.
11:20But at the other hand, we've also seen that Donald Trump is able to actually approach the Middle East
11:26independently of Israel.
11:29As for the Islamic Republic blaming everything on foreign terrorists and so forth,
11:35they've been doing this for years, decades.
11:38And while there is some truth that there are conspiracies, there are foreign groups and agents,
11:44the Israeli government and Mossad publicly claims that it has infiltrated Iran and so forth.
11:50So while there may be some of that, I believe most Iranians have tired of that line of analysis
11:57where all problems in Iran and all problems facing Iranians can be blamed on Israel,
12:04the United States and outsiders.
12:05This is a situation where the political establishment in Iran has to take responsibility
12:12and has to devise a forward thinking set of reforms, political, economic, social and so forth.
12:19Iran, thanks so much for joining us with that analysis.
12:23We'll have to leave it there for now.
12:24That is Iran Kesha Varzian, author and professor of Middle Eastern and Islamic studies
Be the first to comment