00:00This is apropos, nobody in
00:05the inner circle is safe.
00:06That's how many political
00:08observers are interpreting.
00:10Xi Jinping's decision to remove
00:11long-term ally General Zhang Yuxia.
00:15In the Chinese president's
00:16latest military page, the move
00:18underlining that even close
00:19personal.
00:20Political ties offer a little
00:21protection when it comes to loyalty
00:23to the party leadership.
00:25And suggesting that a near-term
00:26attack on Taiwan may be less likely.
00:29Monty Francis.
00:30He was once a close ally of
00:34President Xi Jinping.
00:35But China's top military officer,
00:37General Zhang Yuxia, is out of
00:39a job.
00:40And under investigation for
00:41allegedly violating the law.
00:45Xi has carried out a campaign to
00:46purge the People's Liberation Army
00:48of those he perceives as
00:50disloyal or corrupt.
00:51And so I think it shows that she is
00:54prepared.
00:55To put his political mission above his
00:59sentiment.
01:00For any particular individual, even
01:02someone that he knew and worked
01:04with in the past.
01:05Dozens of other military leaders have
01:06also been removed in the purge.
01:08In this photo, you see
01:10General Zhang Shengmin, who has overseen
01:12the military purges for Xi and on the
01:15right, General Liu Junli, who was also
01:17ousted over the weekend.
01:20Observer say nothing matches the magnitude
01:22of General Zhang Yuxia's departure.
01:24The Chinese...
01:25The defense ministry has only said that he
01:26had committed serious violations of
01:28discipline and law.
01:30But the Wall Street Journal reported on
01:31Sunday that the 75-year-old military
01:33leader had been accused of
01:35selling nuclear secrets to the U.S.
01:37Experts say General Zhang's departure
01:40will create a leadership vacuum, making
01:41immediate military action against Taiwan
01:44unlikely.
01:45But that his ouster increases the chances of
01:47an attack in the medium to long term.
01:50If this is indeed a political power grab by Xi
01:54and Xi Jinping, and if it means there are a few
01:57constraints on Xi Jinping, in a major
01:59beginning term, I think this increases the
02:01likelihood of the use of force against...
02:04Taiwan.
02:05A self-ruled territory of 23 million people, Xi has
02:08long wanted to...
02:09Reunite Taiwan with China.
02:11Officials in Taipei say they're closely watching
02:13what they've called...
02:14abnormal changes to China's military leadership.
02:19To discuss further, we're joined by Lynette Ong,
02:22distinguished professor of Chinese politics.
02:24at the University of Toronto.
02:26Thanks so much, Lynette, for being with us on the...
02:29program.
02:30There are an awful lot of rumors in Beijing about what
02:33specific...
02:34led to this particular military purge.
02:37What do you think prompted it, given that...
02:39General Zhang Yuxian was a respected and well-known figure
02:43described by...
02:44many as a voice of reason in China?
02:49The...
02:49There are many speculations and rumors that have been thrown
02:52around saying that, you know, Wall Street Journal has...
02:54reported that he has leaked nuclear secrets to the United States,
02:57which is a serious offense.
02:59There's also rumors saying that he is very corrupt and has...
03:04successfully reigned in corruption by him and his family.
03:07But I think the ultimate reason...
03:09reason for removing someone so high up in the...
03:12Central Military Commission, he's the...
03:14second person in charge, just below Xi Jinping, has to be...
03:19the question about loyalty to person Xi or...
03:24loyalty to the party.
03:25In this case, you know, we could see that presidency is really...
03:29still cleaning out...
03:31So the official reason could be rooting out corruption.
03:34But the larger reason is he is trying to put in place people that he actually...
03:39trust in important positions.
03:42But then even with that reason...
03:44So many important people in their positions have been removed in recent...
03:49years, one have to question his judgment.
03:52At one point, at what...
03:54point is this reshuffling going to start because it is creating a lot of...
03:59instability in the system.
04:01Yeah, because does this actually, in effect, strength?
04:04It makes it, in a way, Xi's leadership by concentrating more power in his hands or...
04:09does it leave him more isolated and without reliable advisers surrounding him?
04:14Yeah, you would think that, you know, by removing all these deputies...
04:19his power is way more concentrated.
04:21But in actual fact, he himself cannot run...
04:24run China.
04:25He depends on many, many people to run this very huge country.
04:29And Zhang Yuxia is the second person in charge of the Central Military Commission.
04:34So I'm sure he has a bunch of followers within the army, within the people's...
04:39operation army.
04:40So once he is purged, and Xi has purged, you know, six out of seven people...
04:44in the CMC...
04:45What's happened to the followers?
04:46What happened to the followers in...
04:48in the...
04:49.
04:50What happened to the followers in the...
04:51?
04:52?
04:53In the...
04:54?
04:55?
04:56?
04:57?
04:58?
04:59?
05:00?
05:01?
05:02?
05:03?
05:04?
05:06?
05:07?
05:08?
05:09?
05:10?
05:12And there's a lot of questions as well about what this might mean, not just for the China's military.
05:17But also for the future of Taiwan, some people believe this, believe this.
05:22This makes any kind of attack in the short term less likely, but that perhaps.
05:27It's going to strengthen China's hand if she is perhaps thinking here of a longer term.
05:32Attack.
05:34I would think in the short term it makes an invasion.
05:37It makes an invasion on Taiwan less likely because with an army in disarray.
05:42People do not know who is in charge.
05:45It makes any imminent attack.
05:47Attack on Taiwan is very unlikely.
05:52Short term, I would think.
05:54But in the next couple of years, if President Xi could really.
05:57Successfully put in people that we don't see this revolving door, you know.
06:02Shuffling in and out, being removed six months after their appointment.
06:07He might have a chance of consolidating the army then would make.
06:12A military attack a lot more credible, but that is a big if question.
06:17But is yet to come.
06:19And will she be in any rush here to replace?
06:22Those that he is he's outing in this purge.
06:25Do we have any idea at this point who might replace?
06:27These generals we don't we don't actually know so.
06:32They are kind of second batch of people serving in the army, I'm sure.
06:37Some of them Xi Jinping has been studying.
06:41But you have the question.
06:42You know, usually people belong to certain factions.
06:46So so once.
06:47General Zhang Yuxia has been removed.
06:51What happened to his family?
06:52Reaction what happened to his followers and so many people at the top have been removed.
06:57You would naturally think that, you know, people in the rank and file are actually very.
07:02Nervous, I don't know which which direction to follow.
07:07And who is actually in charge now other than presidency.
07:12Maybe that is the actual message that he wants to send, to send this, this.
07:17This sentiment of fear among the rank and file in the army that everyone now.
07:22Must listen to him.
07:24There is no no scope for any dissent at all.
07:27We heard from the U.S. Secretary of State, Marco Rubio, earlier saying Washington is watching
07:32development.
07:32Has the U.S. lost an important senior level contact here?
07:37Because the Chinese president had had allowed Zhang to continue communicating.
07:42With the U.S.
07:43Even after China had effectively cut off most communication after.
07:47Nancy Pelosi's visit to Taiwan.
07:51I think, you know.
07:52Whoever is allowed to communicate with the United States needs explicit content.
07:57Consent of President Xi.
08:01So I don't think in that.
08:02Since the U.S. has lost an ally or whatever.
08:07The term being being being being used, I think the next thing to watch is.
08:12Who is he going to replace this?
08:17Who is he going to replace this group of high-level generals who have been removed in the last
08:22two years or so?
08:23Who is he going to replace this group of high-level generals in the last two years or so?
08:24And I think that is the key important question.
08:27And Lynette, it's not just generals who are being targeted at here.
08:32This appears to be part of a much broader anti-corruption drive that's resulted in...
08:37...about 200,000 officials being punished in some way or another since she came...
08:42...to power.
08:43So who exactly has been the main target here with all of this since 2012?
08:47Yeah.
08:48So, you know, a less cynical view would be that there is actually...
08:52...a lot of corruption in the Chinese system, which is, I'm sure, definitely true.
08:57Everyone has a skeleton in the closet because of the way that the system is...
09:02...of political reform.
09:03So it's very easy to kind of to enrich yourself.
09:07...in the system.
09:08And sometimes one is forced to do so, even though you might be...
09:12...righteous officer, right?
09:13But the most cynical way to look at it is that...
09:17...you know, in the first five years of President Xi's term produced from 2013...
09:22...in the 18th, everyone kind of buy into the fact that he was trying to rule out corruption.
09:27But...
09:27...but there's more and more people get removed from office.
09:32...you have to wonder...
09:34...does he really know what he is?
09:37...what he is doing.
09:38...you know, if everyone is corrupt...
09:42...then the...
09:44...the...
09:45...the formula being used to remove...
09:47...corrupt officials becomes...
09:49...somehow of a...
09:50...become somehow...
09:52...orbitrary, right?
09:53...because...
09:54...not everyone who is corrupt is being removed.
09:57Also, there are some people who are being spared.
09:59So that becomes a bit of a factional politics game.
10:02So I would think it's a combination of really rooting out corruption.
10:06...factional politics.
10:08And I would even question...
10:10...
10:11...
10:11...
10:12...
10:16...
10:21...
10:21that we see 12, 18 months later...
10:23...this person being removed from office.
10:26So does he really know who his followers are?
10:29Does he really know who he is loyal to?
10:31...to him?
10:32I think he is...
10:33...you know, sometimes...
10:34...not trusting his own...
10:36...
10:36...judgment very much...
10:37...from the look of it.
10:39And then I think...
10:41...the British Prime Minister is currently in China...
10:43...being hosted by President Xi.
10:45The latest...
10:46...in a string of Western leaders to visit China...
10:48...in the last few months...
10:49...and there's speculation...
10:50...
10:51...in the UK that...
10:52...you know, Keir Starmer might be there...
10:53...with a focus on trade...
10:54...but really the priority...
10:56...for China...
10:57...they might be looking at this...
10:58...as an opportunity...
10:59...to widen the crack in...
11:01...of Western unity...
11:02...given the current geopolitical...
11:03...situation.
11:04Would you agree with that for you?
11:05Or what...
11:06...what do you think?
11:08Yes...
11:09...maybe widening the...
11:11...the crack is not the way to put it...
11:13...because it's...
11:14...it sounds as if there's a lot of intention...
11:16...in that...
11:17...but our Prime Minister Mark Carney...
11:19...was just in Beijing...
11:20...two weeks ago...
11:21...really out of necessity...
11:23...that in terms of...
11:24...kind of trading...
11:25...economic...
11:26...partnership...
11:27...we need to diversify...
11:28...from the United States...
11:29...and look to China.
11:31So I'm sure the UK Prime Minister...
11:33...has that in mind too...
11:34...but we would think...
11:35...you know...
11:36...so a lot of that...
11:37...pivot to China...
11:38...if I could put it that way...
11:39...is really pushed by...
11:41...President Trump...
11:42...his tariff war...
11:43...his use of tariffs...
11:44...as punitive measures...
11:46...against his...
11:47...his long-term allies...
11:49...over a bunch of issues...
11:50...including...
11:51...andspace...
11:53...against...
11:54...over Greenland...
11:55...and other...
11:56...you know...
11:57...rather...
11:58...thinkable...
12:00...so I've made...
12:02... Catania PBX...
12:03...he- way of seeing others...
12:05granted and people are looking at buying insurance and taking
12:10you know playing hedging policies in order to diversify
12:15some of the risks and thanks so much for all of that insight and
12:20analysis we'll have to leave it there for now that is Lynette on distinguished
12:23professor of Chinese politics
12:25at the University of Toronto in Canada
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