00:00This is Apropos. Huge crowds gathered at a zoo in Tokyo earlier to bid a teary-eyed farewell to
00:09two giant pandas who are now on their way home to China. It leaves Japan without any of the
00:14beloved bears for the first time in 50 years as ties between the Asian neighbours fray.
00:20Their abrupt return was announced last month during a diplomatic spat that began when Japan's
00:25Conservative Prime Minister suggested that Tokyo could intervene militarily in the event of a Chinese
00:31attack on Taiwan. Selina Sykes has the story. After being picked in a hugely oversubscribed lottery
00:39system and standing in line for several hours, these lucky visitors at Wenozhu in Tokyo got to
00:46bid farewell to Xiaoxiao and Lei Lei, the last two giant pandas in Japan. The twins were born here in
00:532021 but they have now been returned to China. I've been bringing my boy here since he was a baby
01:00so I hope it becomes a good memory for him. I always liked pandas. Seeing the twins and witnessing
01:06their growth, especially since they were so small, has been such a great joy. The departure of the
01:13cuddly black and white bears is a sad moment for animal lovers in Japan but is also symbolic of
01:19deteriorating relations between Tokyo and Beijing. After Japanese Prime Minister Sanai
01:24Takechi said Tokyo would get involved militarily if China attacked Taiwan and broke from the country's
01:31long-standing policy of strategic ambiguity on the issue, which kept China guessing while leaving room
01:37for economic ties to grow. Now Chinese tourism to Japan has plummeted after Beijing urged its citizens
01:43not to travel to the country. Giant pandas, native to southwestern China, are used by Beijing as a
01:50gesture of goodwill to other countries. But China retains all ownership of pandas it loans, including
01:56cubs born abroad. Japan's first two pandas arrived in 1972 to mark a normalisation in diplomatic ties with
02:04China after decades of animosity. But now, for the first time since then, it is without any pandas. And that
02:12doesn't look likely to change anytime soon. Despite requests from Tokyo's government, Chinese authorities
02:18have said there are no plans to send replacements. For more, we're joined now by Christy Govella,
02:24Senior Advisor and Japan Chair at the Centre for Strategic and International Studies. Christy,
02:29thanks so much for being with us on the programme. Firstly, these pandas were due to be returned to
02:35China next month when the loan to Japan was due to expire. Do you think there's any chance that their early
02:40departure wasn't politically motivated? Given everything that's going on with China and Japan
02:48right now, it seems likely that political motivation was part of it. Tensions have been consistent and
02:55you know, this is a way of demonstrating some kind of penalty towards Japan without making it really
03:01high stakes in the case of China. And the row itself, it doesn't seem to be hurting the Japanese
03:06Prime Minister, her refusal to bend to Chinese demands to withdraw the remarks that she's made
03:12about Taiwan. It's certainly not hurting her approval rating, is it? We haven't seen negative
03:19effects, particularly from Taiwan comments by Prime Minister Takeuchi. Actually, her approval rating was
03:26as high as 73% last week before she called a snap election. It's sunk a little since then, but that's
03:31primarily due to internal politics, not due to the tensions with China. It's been really interesting
03:36how robust the public approval for Prime Minister Takeuchi has been, and it demonstrates a greater
03:41awareness of security issues on the part of the Japanese public and a greater concern over actions
03:47by China, Russia, North Korea, etc. Yeah, and how important is the relationship between Japan and China
03:53for peace and stability in the wider Indo-Pacific region? China-Japan relations are really essential.
04:01They determine a lot of the dynamics. Of course, US-Japan relations are key, and Japan is a key
04:08military ally of the US in the region. So in many ways, the dynamics of US-China strategic competition
04:15are reflected and kind of mirrored in what we see from Japan. Obviously, the two countries have really
04:21strong trade relations, and those are continuing despite decreased tourism and other kinds of
04:26restrictions. So we haven't really seen the tensions escalate as far as they can go, or even as far as
04:32they went over a decade ago when China and Japan were last at odds. But, you know, this relationship is
04:37really key for the region. Yeah, because isn't it true that over the last 15 years or so,
04:42tensions have deepened between the two, even as they were maintaining those close economic ties?
04:47It's true. So about a decade ago, there was an incident around the Senkaku Jiayu Islands that
04:55caused an uptick in tensions. But after that eventually petered out, after several years,
05:00the two countries, you know, continued to trade. And they never really have become as close as they
05:06were before those periods of tension in the early 2010s because of perceived increasing aggressiveness
05:11by China on the part of Japan in places like the East China Sea, for example. So we've seen something
05:17that looks like increasingly tense relations despite economic interdependence.
05:21Yeah. And has China's rise as a major power? Do you think that's also worsened that kind of
05:27geopolitical rivalry? Some might say that their relationship is now essentially defined by that
05:33kind of rivalry. The rise of China has been the greatest concern for Japan for several decades
05:40now. In some sense, you could perceive it as rivalry. But in another sense, the rise of China,
05:46particularly as it has been coupled with a more increasingly aggressive approach to military
05:52behavior, etc., has been something that Japan has seen as part of a deteriorating security environment
05:58around it. And this has also been coupled with increasing kind of inconsistencies and the buildup
06:04of the North Korean nuclear program, for example, as well as concerns about Russia and Russia-China
06:10cooperation. So the rise of China, unfortunately, has been coupled with a lot of these negative security
06:15trends and has come to be interpreted as an increasing threat to Japan's security environment.
06:20And do you think that a real thorn relations is possible when the future of Taiwan, for example,
06:26remains in question?
06:29At the moment, it seems like Japan-China tensions are going to continue because in both countries,
06:36the fundamental reason for the disagreement hasn't changed. Prime Minister Takeichi has not
06:40withdrawn her remarks, although she's clarified that they are consistent with longstanding Japanese
06:45government policy. So in that sense, they are not as much of a departure as they are sometimes
06:49characterized to be in the news. But it's unlikely that the two sides will be able to
06:55de-escalate easily since Taiwan is a core issue for China. And because in Japan, these concerns,
07:01as I was mentioning earlier about security, have become much more pronounced. Possibly if there is
07:06a change of government in Japan, that could create an opening for a sort of reset under a new prime
07:12minister. But that remains to be seen given the results of the upcoming February 8 election in Japan.
07:17And might that kind of reset be nudged along given the ongoing uncertainty that we're seeing
07:23over Donald Trump's trade policies and other threats in the region? Do you think that's something
07:28that might actually encourage the two sides to open communications once again? Or do you think that,
07:34as you say, that's just too far and not realistic at this particular point in time?
07:39Despite all of the policy changes that we've seen under the second Trump administration,
07:45and the frustrations and difficulties that these have caused for Japan, we have not really seen the
07:50Japanese government attempt to significantly improve relations with China. If anything, the concerns about
07:56China within Japan are prompting the Japanese government to do what it can to strengthen its relationship
08:01with the US, despite the vagaries of the second Trump administration. So at the moment, you know,
08:06Japan is building relationships with a lot of other countries around the world. But when it comes
08:10to China, there are still serious concerns that prevent them from becoming closer.
08:14Anna, let's talk a little bit perhaps about the military purge that we saw in China over the
08:20weekend. What do you think was actually behind that? Do you think these generals, they've perhaps become
08:26too powerful, were kind of posing too much of a threat, becoming too assertive for President Xi Jinping?
08:31There are many theories circulating about the recent military purges in China and what this could
08:38mean. I think it's very difficult, as everyone knows, to truly understand what's going on. But it's
08:43clear that, you know, there are conflicting priorities within the Chinese leadership, and that there is
08:50something of a house cleaning going on. I think that, you know, theories about leaders sharing nuclear
08:55secrets with the US seem quite overblown. At the same time, there is still some definitely some
09:01kind of trend going on that suggests that there are disagreements and divisions within the Chinese
09:07military that Xi feels the need to resolve. Lots of rumours swirling, as you say, in Beijing about
09:13that. But how serious is all of this for Jinping and his leadership, given how he does like to portray
09:20this kind of image, this projection of stability? And who is actually surrounding him now? Like, who does he
09:27have around him that are more experienced advisors?
09:32So, in terms of the image, I think, you know, what the message that we are seeing come out of
09:39Beijing is, is that this was, you know, totally orchestrated and controlled by Xi Jinping. So in
09:44that sense, it is not a challenge to him, but is rather a series of calculated decisions he made about
09:50dismissing members of his own leadership. You know, if we look at who's been removed, it's interesting
09:56that a lot of the top leadership that has experienced dealing with Taiwan and has been
10:02more involved in operations, there has been basically purged at this point. So in terms of
10:09who's around, it's going to leave a gap in leadership, and potentially, in some ways,
10:16leave China less prepared for a conflict in the near future. But in terms of a larger restructuring,
10:20we still have to see how those gaps are filled.
10:24Oh, thank you, Christy. We'll have to leave it there for now. Thanks so much for being with us
10:28on the programme, though. That's Christy Guvella, Senior Advisor and Japan Chair at the Centre for
10:32Strategic and International Studies. Thank you.
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