00:00Let's bring in Mehran Kamrava, an Iranian-American political scientist, one of the leading
00:04contemporary scholars in Middle East politics. He is professor of government of Georgetown
00:09University in Qatar. Welcome to the program tonight, Mehran. Great to have you with us.
00:15My first thought is where you see this protest uprising, if that's the right word right now,
00:21at its stage right now, as things stand, what you believe to be happening?
00:26Kevin, two weeks ago, we couldn't imagine things spiraling to this point. And so it's
00:35extremely difficult to predict what scenarios are likely to happen in the coming days.
00:43Typically, these kinds of protests have lasted for several weeks, and then they've either died
00:51down on their own, or the government has clamped down. We have to see what happens within the next
00:58week or two. I think that will be quite decisive. Particularly, we have to see how the Revolutionary
01:06Guards behave. Will they continue to clamp down? Will they stand aside and let the protesters have
01:14their say? Or what will their behaviour be? I think that's a very critical space to watch
01:21in the coming days. How do you read the extent of the message, the risks that this now involves,
01:29given out by Reza Pahlavi, the former Crown Prince, calling on protesters to seize and hold city centres?
01:36Well, Reza Pahlavi enjoys brand recognition. He's someone whose name is known. He hasn't articulated
01:46a programme. He hasn't articulated a plan or a vision for Iran's future. Certainly hasn't put together
01:54a democratic coalition. But he is known. His father's image has been rehabilitated thanks to the
02:05gross incompetence of the Islamic Republic. And therefore, he has now emerged as a symbol that
02:14opposes the Islamic Republic. I think, again, we have to wait and see to what extent protesters will
02:23begin to call for his return. Already over the last couple of days, we've heard his name far more
02:31frequently than we did a week ago or 10 days ago. It is very interesting because you touched upon it
02:39there. You know, in terms of a popularity contest, the Shah, his father, Mohammed, wasn't popular,
02:46was he, before the uprising happened in 79. And you talk about a kind of rehabilitation. Is that
02:52because there's a genuine sense that he is the answer, given what you just said to me, that there is
02:57no agenda in place other than the fact that we know that he said he's preparing his return? Or is it
03:03the fact that there is a lack of opposition because many of them have been disappeared or in prison,
03:08including Nobel laureates? Exactly. The Islamic Republic has decimated any viable opposition that could
03:18potentially have a vision for post-Islamic Republic Iran. And, you know, there's also this cult,
03:29the Mujahideen al-Khalq, which is based in Albania. They have really no social base. And so by default,
03:39because of name recognition, Reza Pahlavi has emerged in a symbolic way. And, you know, I think it's
03:48fair to say that he doesn't really have a social base, or he has not had a social base in Iran up
03:55until this point. And he is emerging as someone whose name is known, whose face is out there in
04:04the social media. And so people are calling for his return. Very interesting. You talk about kind of
04:10some of the splits within the opposition or some of the concern about some movements. And you mentioned
04:16one of them, the people's Mujahideen of Iran, MEK, we see in the last few days, there are significant
04:22kind of hawks in the US calling and promoting the agenda, the former mayor of New York, Rudy Giuliani,
04:29John Bolton as well, former state advisor to President Trump. What's your take here? Because this is a
04:38group that some see as far too aligned to, well, to have been problematic in the past to Iranians,
04:45violence being aligned to Saddam Hussein in Iraq as well. Explain to me MEK and why that is a concern
04:51to lots of protesters right now. Well, you, the names you mentioned, Rudy Giuliani, John Bolton,
04:59really says a lot about the support among the far right wing of the Republican Party in the United
05:09States that the Mujahideen have been able to garner, thanks largely to their financial largesse and
05:16their ability to sponsor these jaunts. So I think it's important to remember that the Mujahideen,
05:25MeK, were on the terrorism list of the United States, Senator or Secretary of State Hillary Clinton
05:35removed them because of tensions with Iran from the list of terrorist groups. And they really don't
05:44have a social base in Iran. But again, they are the only viable opposition or one of the only viable
05:52opposition groups that are left standing, largely because the Islamic Republic, as you mentioned,
05:59has really gone after whoever has dared to oppose it. Intellectuals, university professors,
06:11activists, even filmmakers, and movie actors, artists, have been jailed and have been declared
06:23persona non grata. You mentioned a number of things, which takes us back into what's happening
06:30now, the internet blackouts. One of those is the Iranian Revolutionary Guard. If there is a path towards
06:36any kind of change, you touched upon it. There has to be a crack. There has to be somebody or
06:42a division within that says things need to change if the Ayatollah is going to be removed or things
06:47shift. The Economist running a piece this week suggesting that an economist who's in favour with
06:55the regime up until recently, this is Sayyid Lalaz, has quoted that he's urged the Ayatollah to step
07:01down in favour of a Bonaparte-type figure. One of them he mentions is this man, Mohamed Bagheir
07:06Khalibaf, who is a parliamentary speaker. Is he relevant in this story right now?
07:13Khalibaf has been one of the mainstays of the Islamic Republic. He was former mayor of Tehran. He's been
07:20speaker of the Iranian parliament for more than a decade now. He's been highly tainted in a number
07:33of corruption scandals, but he does project an image of a builder of someone who is a developmentalist
07:45and has had a developmental agenda. I think by all accounts, the Islamic Republic has reached a dead
07:54end with Ayatollah Khamenei at the helm. Now, whether or not Khamenei steps down or someone puts pressure on
08:05him to step down in order to preserve the system is an interesting question mark. I think
08:15there have been those calls in the past, and of course he has dismissed them. Whether or not this
08:21is a different moment in the history of the Islamic Republic is yet to be seen.
08:28And it's an ominous sign, isn't it? In the midst of this blackout, we're hearing from medics and
08:32doctors at hospitals to say that they're dealing with an overwhelming number of people injured.
08:36Very hard information is slow to a trickle in terms of videos coming out of there. And again,
08:41that adds to that sense of concern. As you look ahead, I just wonder whether you think,
08:48compare this to protest movements gone by. Is it very hard to distinguish? And do you see,
08:54as some commentators have suggested, we are seeing an end to the Islamic Republic in the form
09:01it's in right now? Do you give that credence?
09:05You know, it's really hard to tell. The obituary of the Islamic Republic has been written
09:13many times in the past, but yet the system continues to persevere. Whether or not this is the decisive
09:22time, I think we will be able to tell within the next week or so. But remember, just as recently as
09:312021, we also had mass nationwide protests because of the death of Mahsa Amini. And again, we thought
09:45the Islamic Republic was on the verge of collapse, and it persevered. So I think, you know, I don't
09:54necessarily want to make a prediction, but I do think the next week or two will be critical in the
10:00life of the Islamic Republic, and whether or not it can outlast the current round of protests, or if
10:07we're seeing the end of it. A final thought for now, Mehran, we will talk again in future. Are you
10:12hearing, are you having any contact from colleagues, friends, contacts inside Iran, or has that slowed to
10:19zero for you as well? You know, I did up until Thursday night, and then the Iranian authorities
10:28closed the internet, and now you can't even place simple phone calls into the country. So unfortunately,
10:38it's become extremely difficult to get information from friends, colleagues, and associates inside the
10:46country. Really good to talk to you tonight, Mehran. Thank you for your time. Mehran Kamrava, as I said
10:53before, a professor of government at Georgetown University in Qatar, who directs the Iranian studies
10:57unit at the Arab Centre for Research and Policy Studies. We will talk soon. Thank you, Mehran.
Comments