- 9 months ago
Following the January 3rd attacks carried out by the United States in Venezuela, resulting in the kidnapping of President Nicolas Maduro and First Combatant Cilia Flores, CGTN and TeleSUR join forces to analyze the implications of this Monroe-Doctrine-fueled operation for the international landscape. teleSUR
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01:22Honor Tengen, Senior Fellow at the Center for International Governance Innovation,
01:26and Wang Xinsong Professor at Beijing Normal University,
01:30thank you all for being with us today.
01:33I do want to start with those U.S. strikes themselves.
01:37And Bellum, why don't we start with you on that front?
01:41Well, President Nicolas Maduro and his wife Celia Flores are now in New York,
01:45where U.S. authorities say they will face criminal charges
01:48related to alleged narco-terrorism conspiracy accusations that Maduro denies.
01:56Bellum, get us up to speed on the latest situation in Venezuela.
01:59Have there been any palpable changes in the country?
02:03What are people talking about at this point?
02:06Well, I think that we need to speak to first the sentiment of the population.
02:11First of all, we need to understand that even though we can go to the past
02:16that Latin America and the Caribbean has in terms of U.S. interventions,
02:21we need to understand that for most of the region that has been deemed a region of a zone of peace,
02:28for most of the past decades and for the current generations, this is a first.
02:33We are speaking of a red line that has been crossed,
02:36and that means that for the population in Venezuela, we need to go back to that January 3rd.
02:43There was an attack that included bombings, not only in Caracas, the capital,
02:48but also in the states of La Guayra, of Aragua, of Miranda.
02:52And this means that for the first time in their lives, this population woke up to explosions and bombings.
02:58So we need to really start from a human level to understand what this population is going through.
03:04Just the commotion after such an event, that it had been so much announced.
03:10Also, Venezuela had been denouncing this before the international forums,
03:14before the U.N. Security Council, for example, stating that the United States is flagrantly announcing
03:21they will carry out an attack.
03:23But even though this psychological war was ongoing, this is a first,
03:28and the people are just digesting this.
03:31Now, after that initial shock, we need to say that in terms of the population,
03:36we've been seeing and continue to see just up to this afternoon, mobilizations.
03:41And mobilizations that are on the streets, that have been massive.
03:45You've probably seen the images in social networks.
03:48And these are mobilizations that have one main demand,
03:52and that is the return of the constitutional president, Nicolás Maduro,
03:56and also the defense of the territorial integrity of the country.
04:01This has been prepared by the territorial forces.
04:07We were saying that this was an announced attack.
04:11So Venezuelans that have a very long history of territorial organization
04:15were preparing for coming out to the streets to defend what is them.
04:20So those demonstrations are marking the time in Venezuela right now,
04:26that at a population level.
04:28And also, in terms of institutionality, we need to keep into account that
04:32despite President Donald Trump coming out to say that they are allegedly running Venezuela
04:38or wanting to run Venezuela,
04:40the situation right now is not that.
04:42Venezuela has continued and maintained its institutionality.
04:46The National Assembly initiated sessions for the coming period.
04:51Delce Rodriguez was sworn in as acting president following the state of commotion
04:57that was announced previously by the presidential order of Nicolás Maduro.
05:02So Nicolás Maduro continues to be the president of the nation.
05:06Delce Rodriguez, on behalf of the institutionality, is acting president,
05:10and that institutionality is still going strong.
05:12So that is a little bit of what is happening.
05:14It is still a very touchy situation there, and everyone is watching
05:18if those commotions you mentioned will spiral into unrest or instability in the country.
05:25I don't want to turn to you now.
05:27The U.N. Charter explicitly prohibits the use of force
05:30against territorial integrity or political independence of another state.
05:35The big question now is, will there be consequences
05:39now that the United States has clearly violated the core principles
05:42of the U.N. Charter and international law?
05:46Well, Chong-Shu, you have to divide that into two parts.
05:48During the short term, the U.S. will prevail.
05:50Why?
05:51There's no country that's willing to go to war with the United States.
05:56It's almost impossible, given the proximity of the U.S. to this area.
06:01It's not like you're going to float a bunch of battleships and aircraft carriers
06:04and take on the U.S. in its backyard.
06:07And they're certainly going to do whatever they're doing
06:10in terms of extorting oil from this country.
06:13What they've done is illegal.
06:15But the long-term consequences are going to be profound.
06:20I don't care what country pays lip service to Donald Trump.
06:24Every country in the world is now saying the U.S. is an aggressive, unreliable partner,
06:30and we have to de-risk from it.
06:33So in the back rooms of capitals all over the world,
06:36they're trying to figure out how they can be less exposed to the U.S.
06:40and protect themselves.
06:42For some small countries, they have no choice but to, as they say, pay lip service.
06:49Other countries are thinking, well, if the U.S. is reliable, we need a new world order.
06:55Marco, can I bring you into this discussion now?
06:58How do you look at the consequences here in short-term, long-term?
07:02The thing is, it's true that U.S. has no other power that can dispute in Latin America.
07:10But first of all, I think some of the reactions already started.
07:15So Brazil and Colombia were the most vocal against U.S. and Mexico as well, celebrating.
07:22I think this is one of the problems, because one of the problems we have in Latin America
07:26is that U.S. is not only like a major military power,
07:30but has huge influence in the elites of the Latin American countries.
07:35So most of our countries right now in the region are divided,
07:39are polarized between progressive central-left governments
07:44and right or extreme-right governments.
07:46These right, extreme-right governments, most of them are subservient to the U.S.
07:50And even the people, like white people, rich people from Latin America,
07:55they dream about living in Miami.
07:57They have green cards.
07:59They are proud to be sort of like semi-U.S. citizens.
08:03So I don't think this will change in the short term.
08:07But again, in the long term, I think U.S. is starting to shoot their own feet here,
08:14because this is dividing again, it's increasing the polarization,
08:21but it's also, I think, it will give more arguments to the progressive sectors,
08:28to the center-left, who is against the imperialist aggressions in the United States.
08:33Professor Wong, what is your perspective on this?
08:35We're coming up about a week after the seizure of President Maduro.
08:38It's still very early in these developments.
08:41What will be the legal, diplomatic, and political consequences
08:47for these U.S. strikes against Venezuela?
08:50Yeah, I think legally, both in terms of international law and domestic law,
08:55in the United States, I think what President Trump has done to President Maduro
09:00is completely illegal and unlawful.
09:04And internationally, obviously, UN Chartered Article 2 and Section 4
09:10very clearly states that no country should threat or use force against another sovereign state.
09:18And even domestically, and according to the War Powers Act from 1973 in the United States,
09:24the President does not have the power to initiate military actions without approval of the Congress.
09:32And President Trump has violated both international law of the United Nations and domestic law.
09:38But in terms of consequences, and we're into this world of the laws of the jungles,
09:44and impunity seems to be a prevalent principle right now,
09:48instead of respect for sovereignty and other principles of international laws.
09:53So what I'm saying is that I don't think President Trump is going to face
09:57very serious legal consequences out of it,
10:01despite the fact that we are seeing widespread condemnation from across the world
10:07against the behavior of American government that recently happened.
10:11But at the same time, this reaction is not, you know, on a consensus level
10:17because you do have some countries whose right-wing parties, some of them are incumbent governments,
10:23are actually receiving a lot of support from President Trump and his right-wing politics in the United States.
10:29And I'm talking about many right-wing parties in Latin America as well as in Europe.
10:34So this means this world is being divided.
10:37And unfortunately, in front of such a violent and egregious behavior by American government,
10:44it doesn't seem that there's consensus in the international community,
10:48which I think is a great shame.
10:50Following President Maduro's seizure,
10:53Venezuela's Supreme Court named Vice President Delce Rodriguez as acting president,
10:58and President Donald Trump has warned that she would pay a very big price if she does not do what's right.
11:05Einar, how does the United States define what's right at this moment?
11:09They have no choice.
11:11You have a large power that's already military intervened.
11:15I don't think you can go ratchet up tensions any more than taking the sitting president and his wife
11:20and spiriting them off to the United States.
11:24So at this point, they are in a position where they have to give in.
11:29She is going to – she's already supposedly agreed to this idea
11:33that somewhere between 30 and 50 million barrels of oil will be given to the United States.
11:40But, you know, people who are watching this need to understand the nuances here.
11:45The big oil companies are not interested in Venezuelan crude.
11:48They moved away from it when they were beginning sanctions.
11:51They put a half a trillion dollars into the oil sands of Canada.
11:55They're not going to walk away from that.
11:57The only winner here are those who process oil, and a lot of them are in Texas and Louisiana.
12:03And they will benefit by having a close source, which they can buy at cheaper prices
12:09and then sell on the international market and within the United States.
12:13You know, a lot of people are confused.
12:14Why does the U.S., which exports oil, need oil?
12:19It's because the U.S. has light crude.
12:22And in order to make diesel, you need heavy.
12:25And 60 percent of our refineries in the United States deal with heavy crude.
12:30So if you're going against Canada and you want a quick, easy supply, Venezuela is there.
12:36So what we're looking at is an imbalance within the United States in terms of their oil, but also politically.
12:45So I think this is something that people need to realize that why this is happening.
12:49There's only a very narrow interest that is going to benefit this.
12:53The processors, everyone else is losing.
12:56Marcus, let's get your take on this.
12:59America might want heavy crude, but it doesn't necessarily need a Venezuelan oil.
13:05But it wants to have a say on who gets the oil from Venezuela, at what price and under what terms.
13:14So where does oil factor in these U.S. operations against Venezuela?
13:19How important is it for U.S. to have the say here?
13:24I think that I could recall a Chinese saying that says, you know, you shoot a chicken to scare the monkeys.
13:36And the idea that the United States apparently has after the issuance of the security document is that they want to affirm that within the American hemisphere,
13:48the United States is prevailing and it's hegemonic.
13:53And this action is not an action by a hegemon.
13:57It's an action by an imperial country, right, that wants to identify and to be recognized as an imperial country.
14:07So oil is just a factor in that sense.
14:11And oil is just playing a role.
14:13Like the United States is doing this because they can, because as A&R said, nobody is going to reverse that.
14:19We may complain about it, but it's very hard for you to go against, you know, the power and strength of the United States in that sense.
14:28So I think that when you look into the actions that have been taking place, basically the message is clear.
14:34You know, we might use that economically.
14:37We might and it may play a role, you know, in artificial intelligence, have access to oil and all this.
14:44But it's actually an act of imperialism and basically trying to say to any other countries, particularly China,
14:51that if they want to play a role in the region, they have to be careful because the United States is willing to use its force.
14:58And it's basically, you know, the carrot and stick approach.
15:03But the issue here is that the United States is just showing the stick and nothing else.
15:10You know, as we talk about the aftermath here, it's important to understand how regional powers, regional countries are reacting to this.
15:17Also, governments across Latin America have responded in different ways, from strong condemnation to more cautious statements.
15:25Bellin, what are the key dividing lines shaping these regional responses?
15:55We were just talking about the different reactions and the way in which some of the countries
16:23were condemning this aggression, this blatant violation of international law, the kidnapping of a president.
16:30And we've heard strong condemnation from Brazil, Brazil's Lula, from Petro in Colombia, from President Chambon in Mexico.
16:39So major players in the region condemning this aggression.
16:43And we need to understand this condemnation in terms of the entire region.
16:49Why is this important?
16:49Because we are talking about Venezuela, but these players are understanding that this is not just about Venezuela.
16:56It has to do with enhancing control over the entire region.
17:00You were just talking about the carrot and stick theory.
17:04And something like that is happening.
17:05And something like that will allow us also to understand why there are other governments that are completely aligned with the U.S.
17:13And that is, for example, Argentina's melee and also President Novoa in Ecuador, for example.
17:18And we have had other kinds of intervention of the U.S. in those countries.
17:24Interventions that go in the way of, for example, great amount of loans in order to ensure that those governments continue to follow their politics.
17:32So these are actually different ways of achieving one same objective, the control over what the U.S. appears to think is its own territory.
17:43Professor Wang, it's interesting that we obviously have these different groups of countries and different categories of countries that are tailoring their responses to this crisis,
17:52mindful of their own interests and mindful of their relations with the United States.
17:56The question really now is, which countries will help shape the paths forward for Venezuela with your different responses?
18:07Your takes on those different responses and reactions?
18:10Well, like I said earlier, I think it's a shame that some of the countries are even in agreement with what President Trump has recently done to President Maduro,
18:20a leader of another sovereign country.
18:22But at the same time, some colleagues were earlier discussing that the President Trump's administration is trying to kick out all these so-called external hostile forces from Latin America
18:37or Western Hemisphere, which I think doesn't make sense at all.
18:40Because if you look at the infrastructure building and the credits and loans being provided to development finance in Latin America over the past decade or so,
18:49it is China and other global South countries that have contributed so much to the development of Latin America.
18:59And I don't think the American government has the plan for the aftermath of what's going to happen after Maduro was taken away,
19:10who is going to take care of the governance issues and economic issues in Venezuela.
19:17I think right now that you might have some corners of grievances in Venezuela against President Maduro,
19:24but as days go on, you know, people will see that the governance issues, economic issues not being tackled by anybody.
19:32I also don't think American government has the capacity to tackle all these issues.
19:37And previously, you had the USAID, which did a lot of work in terms of development and finance in developing conditions, including Latin America.
19:45But now USAID is gone.
19:47And the American government simply doesn't have the capacity, the bureaucracy, to deal with on-the-ground issues in Venezuela.
19:55So we're, you know, pretty much looking at a very bleak situation in Venezuela sooner or later.
20:03Marco, I just want to quickly have your thoughts here.
20:06If we look at the past U.S. interventions in countries like Iraq, does what's happening in Venezuela bear any similarities?
20:13Could Venezuela sink into the situation of Iraq here?
20:19And when you're watching out for that, what could that mean for the people in Venezuela and for the stability in the entire Latin American region?
20:29Well, we hope not.
20:33We hope not.
20:34But right now, it's hard to say.
20:36I mean, as Marcos was saying, I mean, U.S. doesn't have a good record on intervening in countries and controlling the territory.
20:45Actually, they failed in Iraq.
20:47They failed in Libya.
20:49And to be honest, I don't think they will try this in Venezuela because I think this will be a total disaster.
20:55And even for U.S. public audience, if you see it right now, the polls, 70 percent of the people are against intervention in Venezuela.
21:05So this could not be like selling U.S. as, oh, we're bringing freedom and democracy, which, by the way, actually, this is one advantage of Trump.
21:15Let's be honest.
21:16I mean, Trump never talked about democracy or like like the Democrats would say or even Bush, the Bushes would say that we are fighting for democracy and we fight against terrorism.
21:27He's being very, very straight, very blunt.
21:30Like we need the oil and we don't want China and Russia or Iran or Cuba there.
21:35So we're going to intervene.
21:37And I think this is not for for internal audience.
21:41I don't think it's as good.
21:42And also, let's remind that Trump is is now picking a big fight with MAGA and Trump cannot be elected without MAGA.
21:54If you see, for instance, Tucker Carlson, which is one of the greatest representatives of MAGA, his comments about Venezuela, he was actually saying the opposite.
22:04It's like this is a big mistake and giving his some of his conservative arguments of Venezuela is actually the most conservative country in the region.
22:13Anyway, I mean, I don't agree with his arguments, but it's it's being clear that MAGA doesn't have that is not supporting this.
22:21And this is going to be a big problem for Trump in the next elections, because also it starts to have some rumors in the U.S.
22:30that even Tucker Carlson could be a next name for MAGA for presidential elections.
22:36So I think at the end of the day, if there's a short term, maybe Trump is showing how strong he is.
22:42But I don't think this is going to be good for him in terms of his ambitions for next elections.
22:50Bellin, last November, the U.S. national security strategy signaled a return to the Monroe Doctrine, emphasizing American primacy in the Western Hemisphere.
23:00How have Latin American countries responded to this so far?
23:03Well, I think that we need to go back to what we were saying before.
23:08This is not just Venezuela. It's it is the entire region.
23:10And this has been a motive of the this new administration of President Donald Trump since it began.
23:17Let's recall that just weeks after taking office, he was talking about taking over the Panama Canal.
23:23Let's recall that it has had direct interferences in the elections of Argentina and Honduras, for example, that took place this year as well.
23:33Let's recall as well that it has had direct tariff wars and threats with Brazil just trying to trying to incede in the process, the jail process of former President Bolsonaro, also with Mexico.
23:49I'm saying this to say that this is not just the only thing that is happening.
23:54It is maybe the most clear and blatant attack.
23:58But this is a whole strategy that has to do with taking control of the continent through different strategies and according to the different governments at play.
24:08So maybe this case is the most clear one.
24:11And that is why it's having this level of response.
24:14We've been seeing that Brazil and Colombia called for a SEALAC summit, and maybe that would be the way to see if this with this now we see more interaction between those partners in order to offer a unified response.
24:29Everyone, I do want to zoom out a little bit for now and have you look at the grander scheme of things that Donald Trump is contemplating.
24:35After the operation in Venezuela, Donald Trump issued warnings to warn other countries, including Cuba, Colombia and Mexico.
24:44He has also said the U.S. should take over Greenland and could attack Iran again.
24:49Einar, is there a coherent strategy or coherent goal that ties all of these objectives together for the Trump administration?
24:58Well, there's two. Short term, it's diversion, keeping the public away from talking about all the things Epstein, et cetera, the economic woes of the United States.
25:09On the second level, it goes back to the defense policy statement that was put out a few weeks ago, indicating that the U.S. believes that it's going to be a hemispheric hegemon, not a global one.
25:22But if for one instance you think that if the United States had a hegemony in its sphere, that it would just stay away from the rest of the spheres, I think you're sadly mistaken.
25:33If this was really true, you would see drawdowns of troops in both Europe and in Asia.
25:38Remember, there are 400 military bases by the U.S. that surround China and the Five Island Chain, as they call it.
25:48So this is merely a head fake. Mafia politics being used in its most cynical form.
25:56It doesn't have a long-term positive outlook, given that so many countries will turn against it.
26:03But it is what Donald Trump is pushing as part of his idea of diverting attention and also, quote, making America great again.
26:11All right, Marcus, coming to you now, I mean, it's unlikely that the United States will attempt all of these overly ambitious objectives at the same time.
26:20But will the successful operation in Venezuela embolden the Trump administration to pull off something similar in another sovereign state?
26:31I think that we need to take into consideration that based on the current Constitution of the United States, Trump is a one-term president.
26:41And so I think that he's doing all these actions to try to, you know, insert his name in history like, you know, Ramses II of Egypt, so that he's going to be remembered for the things that he did.
26:53Now, of course, it emboldens him with public opinion if he manages to, you know, sell it right.
27:00And we have to understand that Trump is a television guy.
27:05He's a media guy.
27:06You know, if you look into the way the whole situation was handled, it was like, you know, a TV show for everybody to watch President Maduro being held as an anarcho dealer.
27:17And I think that, you know, Trump does that.
27:21Now, my concern is not, you know, him repeating this, but my issue is that if his followers, if anybody that comes along the way, his successors, that could be Marco Rubio, Peter Hegsett, or even J.D.
27:35Vance, and if the Democrats do not come up with good names or different strategies, they might feel emboldened to do that.
27:43And as we observe the decline, and those are actions of a declining power.
27:48When you're declining, you start doing stupid things.
27:51And that was one of the actions that instead of helping the United States to solidify its image or to solidify its values,
27:59you know, you basically saw it as a declining power acting out of desperation in Venezuela, which at the end of the day was the weaker link in the whole process that you see him interacting in the world.
28:14He hasn't delivered in many places that he promised to do, and Venezuela was something that he could handle.
28:20But even after doing this, we still do not know the day after.
28:24So I think he might feel emboldened.
28:26But I think that overall, the message of an agonizing decline is there.
28:33Finally, if you could send one message, the key parties involved, whether it be the United States, Venezuela, or the international community, what would it be at this critical moment?
28:44Well, I would talk to our audience right now and just say that we have a lot of work to do in order to unpack and separate what Western media is saying and what Donald Trump is trying to impose from what is really happening.
28:58Despite Trump saying that they are running Venezuela, that it's not what's happening in the territory, despite Western media continue to bombard with headlines stating that if that leader was taking away, the situation would collapse.
29:13That is not what we're seeing in the territory.
29:15So we have to pay close attention and also taking into consideration that this is happening after Gaza and that this is possible after what happened in Gaza and what Gaza showed the world.
29:27The fact that the international community could not enforce its own international laws and also the power of mobilization.
29:35So we need to continue to look at what is happening across the world and the pressure that demonstrations both across the world and in the United States itself can have can cost to the U.S. administration itself for what it's doing for pushing this red lines.
29:51Are they going to have some backlash?
29:53And we do want to thank all of you for sharing your insights.
29:57The seizure of Nicolas Maduro has left Venezuela at a pivotal crossroads with so many uncertainties in its future.
30:05CGTN will continue to follow developments regarding the U.S. operation in Venezuela and its water implications.
30:12And to our audience out there, thank you so much for watching.
30:23We'll see you next time.