00:00When would you be really confident saying, now's the time to buy?
00:05Well, I'm for sure not comfortable right now, Guy, that's for sure, with the kind of sell-off,
00:10as you mentioned, $1,000 down in a very short period of time.
00:14I think we obviously have to split this into a couple of things, a couple of phases.
00:20There's no doubt in hindsight, obviously, that this rally was becoming parabolic and unsustainable.
00:25We saw the plumbing starting to crack last week, liquidity dried up.
00:30Volatility exploded, and there was a sure sign that something was going to happen eventually.
00:36Wash, Kevin Wash, was the trigger.
00:39But we didn't also have to ask ourselves, has anything really changed?
00:42Not really, apart from the fact that we need to get prices down to levels that probably
00:47are more of a reflection of the underlying fundamentals.
00:50So that would probably take some time, but I think gold would probably be the one we should
00:53keep an eye on.
00:53Central banks will not stop buying gold.
00:55They'll probably enjoy the fact they can pick it up cheaper.
00:58So gold probably will be the first sign when we get some stability.
01:03And also, Guy, obviously, we've seen China being a massive driver in recent weeks behind
01:07this rally.
01:08We need to see where they finally settle in.
01:11Silver's limit down has been all day.
01:13So we don't really have much clarity right now on the outlook for Chinese prices here.
01:18Is it possible to come up with a fair value for gold, for silver at this point?
01:26Fair value is more of a relative story.
01:29I would say silver, in terms of where it went relative to gold, was well above its long-term
01:36average, which didn't make too much sense.
01:38And I think also the fact that people just simply forget this, a lot of this so-called
01:43deficit, well, the deficit was driven by investment demand, but that comes and goes.
01:47What was really important is the industrial demand.
01:49And as we approach the $100 in silver, the industrial demand, especially in China, starts
01:53to show signs of uncertainty or weakness.
01:57And with that as well, we just had all the stories in the last two weeks of people queuing
02:00up around the block just to sell their old silverware.
02:02That if you can accumulate that, that will over time relate into quite a lot of supply
02:07coming into the market.
02:08So silver is a tricky one.
02:10Gold is, I would say, is more of a sustainable, but in terms of the underlying reason why gold
02:16has been rallying since 2022, that has not gone away.
02:19I would say, if anything, it's probably been strengthening.
02:22So fair value is difficult.
02:25It's obviously, at the end of the day, what price investors are prepared to pay.
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