Catch Ross Maxwell, VT Markets’ Global Strategy Lead, as he breaks down the latest trends in gold prices and stock markets. Discover why gold remains bullish amidst global uncertainty, how US fiscal policy is shaping the outlook, and what key levels investors should watch. Ross shares actionable insights for portfolio management, risk strategy, and navigating volatility, blending data-driven analysis with practical trading wisdom. Stay informed and make smarter investment decisions with VT Markets’ expert opinions
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00:00gold rates markets etc we talk about global trends and in this episode we will talk about
00:18Ross Maxwell global strategy operations at BT markets which will give us an international
00:24perspective in India economy economy in the markets economy or gold strategy hi Ross how are you doing
00:33today very well thank you very nice to be here thank you for having me Ross we're going to talk
00:40about gold and silver rates today gold again is a very important asset class for especially for
00:46Indians and the wedding season is just around the corner but we did see a gold touching a record
00:52high sometime during October and then prices have fallen so you know does that mean that some kind
01:00of consolidation is happening or do you think that by the end of this year gold will again touch record
01:08highs yeah so obviously the the recent fall or correction has happened through to global issues
01:17you know I think the main catalyst for the recent correction started with the sort of easing of
01:22tensions between the US and China in terms of their their trade wars and stuff like that that was one
01:26of the catalysts that that's all corrected gold initially and I think you know I think we're
01:31heading into a period where we're going to see higher volatility in gold and that could be both ways you
01:36know we've had the US economic US government shutdown so we're going to now start seeing now that that's
01:42finished we're going to start seeing data released into the market so I think we're going to see that
01:47volatility I think ultimately the correction is much more of a healthy correction in terms of profit
01:53taking I don't think it's like an overall structural shift fundamentally in the in the fundamentals of
01:59driving uh the gold prices so I think you know as long as that macroeconomic backdrop remains the same
02:06then yes definitely we could still see higher pricing uh in in the coming weeks uh in going into the end
02:12of 2025 right and uh gold is primarily a safe haven asset so uh there's just too much too many things
02:21going around the world right right now you know walls and then we have uh you know from tariffs
02:27geopolitical scenes there are a lot of um central banks who are easing policies so in the coming year
02:35how do you see these things impacting gold prices
02:37yeah so I think you know 2025 itself has been almost as you say a bit of a perfect storm for
02:44for gold and silver prices you know we we've had those geopolitical tensions you mean you know the
02:49conflicts you know you've seen central banks uh buying um you know you had even like the debt
02:54issues with one big beautiful bill and stuff like that in America so I think all of this sort of stuff has
02:59driven almost like in a perfect storm and some of those things have eased going into 20 and going and
03:06going forward but I think ultimately like a lot of those uh issues still remain the same you know
03:10with we we seen the fed have moved away a little bit although inflation in the u.s seems to still be
03:17uh a concern I think they've moved away a little bit from that in their commentary hoping that maybe the
03:24the inflationary pressures from the tariffs haven't haven't materialized as as impactfully as they may
03:30have feared and now that those tariff wars seem to be dissipating a little bit they're focusing
03:35a lot more on the labor market um so I think that could therefore um sort of that that's going to
03:42be the main focus and obviously that trump is also trying to push for a weaker dollar which will again
03:48support uh support gold prices going forward and silver with industrial demand increasing um and the
03:55supply constraints there still as well especially sort of from China with like EV solar and stuff like
04:00that I think both of them still have uh structurally um upside for going going forward right right Ross
04:10you spoke about the fed and you also spoke about a weaker dollar now uh I've been speaking with
04:15strategists all over the world who have been predicting a weaker dollar for the last I think
04:20seven eight years that actually never happened so what's your take on the fed will they uh do you
04:27forecast a federal cut in uh December again I think a lot I mean again from it's it's a very tricky one
04:34to call and and you know the fed have been faced with a really tough challenge in 2025 very very uh
04:40difficult situations instead of like this potential stagflationary environment and and although you know
04:45we have seen some uh elements of strength in the us dollar in recent weeks actually over 2025 we have seen
04:51a weaker but the the us dollar has become a lot weaker from from very high from a very strong point we
04:57have seen some weakness um and I think you know again Donald Trump uh politically is putting
05:04pressure on the fed um because he wants that weaker dollar because it supports his America first agenda
05:10uh it supports his sort of uh uh like um us exports and also turns us companies inwards to look for for
05:18for us uh products but you know I think we like yeah I think I think I think at the moment I think
05:25it would lean towards um going for further rate cuts from the feds whether that comes in December I think
05:31it depends on how this initial set of data comes out now the government shutdown is over we start
05:37seeing that data into the thing because you know chairman Powell said at the last one the next rate
05:42decision will be led by data um the shutdown has has happened now so the shutdown has ended now so
05:49they will start to receive that data to be able to make that next decision so I think that's going
05:54to be the key uh the key point is what this data looks like if it shows that inflation is not uh an
06:01issue or not as much of an issue and labor data comes in weak then yes I would expect to see a further rate cut
06:07if not then it may wait until like the early part of 2020. Interestingly you know not only payroll data
06:14but also unemployment rate uh it looks like it's it's going to go up and that could also be a concern
06:21for the fed in the coming months um because uh unemployment rate wage growth is something that
06:28most Americans you know struggle with and with sure what yeah I mean I was just gonna say you know
06:35Trump ran on on that effectively like you know the pressure that was coming into the into the the
06:41the general uh American was feeling the pinch and feeling those issues so you know those are going
06:47to be key for for Donald Trump as well and again you know to to try and stimulate those sorts of things
06:52it's going to lead further to the fed leaning towards those rate cuts I think right right Russ coming back
07:00to India we have uh we have our wedding season right now November to January and we usually see a lot of
07:08demand for gold buying during this time because uh brides uh you know extensively use uh gold jewelry
07:17what is your take on that I mean do you see uh you know a growth in demand rising uh in the next few
07:24months and uh and that that's proportional to price right so do you see an uptick in price yes I think
07:33I think like obviously we are heading into that demand uh like the higher demand season especially
07:37locally in India and you know obviously Indian prices at the moment as well are also affected uh
07:43because of the weaker uh ruby so it makes it more expensive as well so that's sort of this double-edged
07:50sword and and obviously the the correction offers people looking to buy into the wedding season an
07:56opportunity to buy on the dips you know I think again going back to that structurally the overall
08:01picture hasn't really changed so I think you know buy on the bit strategy still remains a really good
08:07good way and a good strategy to to get into gold you know again with the higher volatility unless
08:13something structurally changed dollar cost averaging strategies can can can help but obviously if you're
08:18buying physical stuff then I think it still offers a good opportunity um but yeah I think you know
08:24again I think at the moment because of the geopolitical stuff you know it's a lot of the macro
08:30global stuff that is driving gold price and that will continue to be the main driver of of gold and
08:37and silver prices but um but gold especially so I think you know yeah it offers a good opportunity and
08:43as long as structurally again like I say those those data releases indeed the geopoliticals and the
08:50macroeconomic structure globally remains the same the demand will continue to to to push it higher so
08:57I think yeah this correction probably offers a good opportunity from a from a buy the dip strategy for
09:02people looking to buy into the wedding season right and what would be your uh gold and silver focus for
09:082026 yeah so I think again looking at it uh I think all the time we remain above sort of 3900 dollars
09:16in uh in in gold which uh I think is around 100 and about 100k uh in in local prices I think you can
09:25push up I think it's going to be more moderate in gold to silver I think we can see sort of moderate upside
09:30um like up to sort of like you know maybe 4800 maybe uh 5000 I don't think we're going to see the same
09:37gains that we've seen in in 2025 you know again going back to what we said earlier on it was a
09:41perfect storm in 2025 but I think as long as the the the everything remains constant as it is at the
09:48moment certainly in the early part of 2026 we can push on towards that sort of like yeah 4800 to fit to
09:545000 uh in the spot market which is around sort of 124 125 130 000 uh in in local prices uh silver I think
10:04you know it's going to be a lot more volatile you it's going to be a lot more susceptible to those
10:09to to the industrial demand and how uh especially coming out of China that industrial demand
10:16increases and again I think structurally all the time we remain above that sort of 46
10:21dollar mark which is around 130 000 I believe um you know I think there's a potentially a lot of
10:26upside to sort of like above 65 dollars on the spot price right right uh Ross you spoke about the dollar
10:34and uh a weaker rupee uh let me just throw this question because uh the top of de-dollarization
10:41is uh you know going on especially in the bricks area and we have seen uh rupee weakening for a long
10:48time now and not only rupee most emerging market currencies are weak and that has nothing to do with
10:54the emerging market currencies but the strengthening of dollar so uh you know what what is your take on
11:00this because Donald Trump clearly said that you know any any kind of that kind of stock and you
11:05know you will be bombarded with tariffs etc so what's your take on that yeah I mean look I think
11:11it's from an Indian point of view like you know the government have come in and they have said that
11:17they will do anything they need to support the rupee and they have you know they showed that in October
11:22with with sort of selling uh selling US dollar of course thing but unfortunately like you know it doesn't
11:27solve the whole issue because you know India is a very uh import heavy uh economy so they have to buy
11:33dollars um that like companies have to buy dollars um I think you know I think going forward it is a
11:42battle that they're going to have to come but I'm I I expect to see a weaker US dollar uh in 2026
11:48going forward so I think that will help um especially with sort of government interventions across
11:54um across emerging markets I think that will help sort of just offset some of those uh those things
12:00so I think yeah I think we'll see the weaker dollar and that will help um the rupee as well
12:05and and obviously going like the the India has struggled a little bit in in 2025 with sort of um
12:12you know foreign investment coming out of the market a little bit um but I think it just just to
12:17sort of like because it was maybe a little bit overvalued to some of its it sort of um
12:21um its peers but you know I think now that it sort of reset a little bit you could see some sort of
12:27like foreign investment go back into it which which could also help right and uh for Indian market the
12:33stock market uh before I let you go I have to ask you that uh do you foresee a correction in the market
12:40happening in 2026 or do you think it would be it's going to just go up and the follow-up question to that
12:46we spoke about war and tariffs and you know the de-dollarization and the geopolitical crisis happening
12:53so uh do you expect a global recession in the next two years um yeah look I think it's a very it's a
13:04very we're still in a very very challenging tricky situation for global banks uh like central banks
13:10globally you know they're faced with a very tight like they're walking a tight rope to try and you
13:15know stimulate growth but sort of still counter that inflate those inflationary issues so like
13:22it's it's going to be very difficult for them to avoid a recession I think over the coming years
13:28but um equally I think they they asked I wouldn't sort of like guarantee that there's going to be a
13:32recession I don't think it's inevitable that there will be I think there's there is still room for
13:37them to maneuver uh to to support and I think the fact that you know inflation is starting to just
13:42become less of an issue um although it's still still there I think that helps in terms of you
13:47know in terms of uh India you know we've seen we have seen a correction a little bit in in Indian
13:51markets this year I think um that you know India itself is still very well placed like macroeconomically
13:59it's still very uh very strong um so I think that that can that can help it um and I think you know
14:08a lot will depend on unfortunately like like global factors rather than Indian Indian factors like
14:16domestic factors I think you know as I said potentially we are starting to see foreign
14:21investment come back into India it can become more attractive um and that you know if that if that
14:25remains the case because it's still so strong um domestically I think that you know any it could
14:32be shielded a little bit from any decent people correct right uh I think we covered the world
14:39I think we covered most of the topics only bonds and crypto is something that is left but uh thank
14:46you so much for your input it was very interesting and uh great insights thank you so much for joining us
14:51today and um hope to hope we speak soon thank you very much for having me really uh really enjoyed it
14:58it's been been a pleasure
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