- 13 hours ago
The sudden surge in price has even forced three major fund houses, Kotak Mutual Fund, UTI Mutual Fund, and ICICI Prudential Mutual Fund, to temporarily stop accepting fresh lump sum investments in their silver ETF fund of funds.
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00:00Good morning and welcome to market opening on our brand new collab show between business
00:17today and India Today TV. It's just after 9 and we're here to get you ahead of the curve
00:22as markets kick off trading for the day. Let's take a look at what's hot in the corporate
00:26and financial space this morning. Markets set for a rollercoaster ride this week. Asian
00:31markets plunge after heavy selling on Wall Street on Friday. Trump's announcement of
00:36100% additional tariffs against China. Shocking investors. Later, statements softening the
00:42blow have done little to mitigate nervousness. It's also an earnings-heavy week on D Street.
00:50Tata Capital all set to make its debut in the stock markets today. The largest IPO of the
00:55year, 15,500 crore rupees, was subscribed around two times. Analysts expect the listing to be
01:01muted with the current grey market premium just 2% to its issue price of 326 rupees.
01:10Surge in prices and demand for silver after Kotak and UTI. SPI Mutual Fund also suspends
01:15fresh investments in its SPI Silver ETF from today because demand far outstrips the availability
01:22of physical silver. Regulator expected to step in to curb market volatility.
01:32MSME is in focus today. Finance Ministry to hold key review meeting to assess the impact of U.S.
01:38tariffs on the sector, officials to specifically gauge trade pressures and possible policy responses.
01:44The meeting will also focus on evaluating the credit needs of small businesses
01:49businesses and financial inclusion schemes.
01:54It's the start of a very special week on Business Today with Top Market Masters lined up this entire
01:59pre-Diwali week. Today, join BTTV's YouTube channel for two exclusive conversations with one of the
02:06biggest stock market players, Ram De Aghwal and then with renowned global commodity guru, Jim Rogers.
02:12All right, let's take a look at the global setup. Trump playing havoc once again and fears with regards
02:26to the trade war with China and all that could possibly unfold on that front playing into sentiment.
02:33Take a look at the overnight setup as well as what really transpired on some of those tech stocks.
02:38Massive cuts coming in there on the S&P, NASDAQ and Dow on Friday, tech also being hammered pretty much.
02:45And that sentiment reflecting in Asia this morning, the Nikkei being closed with the other Asian markets.
02:49There you have it with Apple down almost 4%, Meta down almost 4% and Tesla down 5%.
02:56So we saw a hammering on U.S. stocks.
02:59Asia this morning, as I mentioned, also taking that same tonality overnight.
03:03And let's see what we have in store for the index here this Monday morning.
03:08We've got Amrish Baliga and Shailendra Patanagar joining us this morning.
03:11Good to have you both with us.
03:13Before I come to you, Amrish, let me just go across to Shail for a quick look at the technical setup
03:17and how the index is set to open this morning.
03:20A very good morning to you, Abha, and to all our viewers, a warm welcome for this fresh week ahead of Diwali.
03:32Lots of positivities working in the market.
03:34But for today, there's going to be a pullback, which means a mild opening 100 points lower gap down
03:41because of the Wall Street issue that you highlighted.
03:44But 25,300, 25,200 is a very strong support level.
03:50Remember, last week, Nifty gained 391 points.
03:53So if you give back 100, 150, it doesn't matter.
03:56Strength in Bank Nifty, a 1,000 point rally last week, about 1.2, 1.3% uptick.
04:04PSU banks are doing very well.
04:06Private banks are catching up.
04:07So that's the trade on the long side as far as market is concerned.
04:11Try and buy this dip, Abha.
04:14All right.
04:15Amrish Baliga joining us this morning.
04:17Amrish, what a setup today.
04:18We've had, of course, lots of overnight queues with regards to global commentary coming in.
04:24But at the same time, so much action in the domestic markets with a whole host of earnings leading up to Diwali as well.
04:32What do you feel is in store for us this week or at least in the short term?
04:37Good morning, Abha.
04:38See, yes, I mean, global markets clearly are volatile and going to be volatile as long as President Trump is there because you never know as to what he's going to tell you tomorrow morning.
04:49So clearly, uncertainty on the international trade and commerce.
04:53But despite all this, despite the tariffs which were there on India, H-1B visa issue, Chabar put issue which directly affects India.
05:03Then you have the Saudi Park Defense Pact, which again affects India to a large extent.
05:09Despite all this, if we have not seen a crash in the Indian markets, we just saw a correction.
05:16And from lower levels, we have seen an extremely good sort of a bounce back.
05:19Clearly, because of the GST announcements and overall, I mean, our macros are still doing decently well.
05:26So I don't see much of a downside for the markets, even because of the Saturday announcement as far as 100% tariffs on China.
05:35Yes, because of the global markets, we will have some sort of a knee-jerk reaction.
05:39I mean, we should clearly be opening lower.
05:42But then I see a decent amount of bounce back from the lower levels.
05:46So if you're talking of the next couple of weeks, I will not be surprised if we move more towards that 25,520, 26,000 band than lower than 25,000.
05:58Okay, so that's a fair assessment on really where we stand right now.
06:01We're seeing a bit of a sea of red everywhere.
06:03I want to get a quick check from you on the mega IPOs, Amrish, because Tata Cap listing fairly muted.
06:10What do you attribute that to versus what we're seeing, for instance, in an LG and it's a runaway success?
06:14See, people were looking at Tata Capital basically from the gray market and despite a huge discount, I mean, to the gray market, still, if you look at the valuations, valuations were still decently expensive.
06:31I mean, if you compare with something like Abajaj Finance or L&D Finance or even HDB, I mean, where the issue had come recently, compared to all these, Tata Finance was still on the expensive side.
06:44So, clearly, I think the listing is going to be quite muted, but I don't see a major cut from here because whatever said and done, it was at a decent discount.
06:55So, I think it will hold on at these levels.
06:58And in case someone is looking at long term, yes, I mean, if you see it about 5-8% lower than the IPO price, I think it could be a good time to buy.
07:05All right. So, that's the comment coming in on that one.
07:09We're just counting down to the opening bell.
07:11A few other stocks are going to be in news.
07:13We've got Lupin with a pre-approval inspection in New Jersey for a new plant.
07:18We've got Wellspun where the board's going to be meeting to consider fundraise by convertible equity warrants.
07:24A couple of these stocks that are going to be in news this morning.
07:27We've got All Cargo with an NCLT nod for its composite scheme of arrangement.
07:31Earnings. That's a very earnings-heavy week.
07:33Watch out for IT. We've got HCL Tech that we'll be watching out for there as well.
07:37Asian Paints in the news.
07:40New manufacturing facility.
07:42It's commenced commercial production there as well.
07:44So, keep an eye out on Asian Paints and producing white cement in the UAE for export growth.
07:51So, that's why that particular property is important.
07:53There's the opening bell for you.
07:55Let's take a look at how we are stacking up this Monday morning.
07:57Down about 3.5%. Not too bad.
08:00As Ambish said, likely to be range-bound.
08:02And Sheryl's saying really use the opportunity of any dips to look at the market as an attractive investment opportunity.
08:09Right now, we're just seeing red across.
08:10IT is seeing a slightly more heavy pressure there coming in.
08:13On the upside, on the nifty Aesha, Apollo Hospital, the Jarge Auto.
08:18However, on the upside, gains are a little limited.
08:20And clearly, we are skewed towards declines.
08:23Only a handful of gainers right now in the market.
08:25And those primarily being from the auto pack.
08:27On the downside, IT, Trent, JSW, Steel.
08:32Wipro's down about a percent this morning.
08:34We've got HCL Tech down ahead of numbers.
08:36Infi's down as well, 8 tenths of a percent.
08:37So, clearly, that's where the pressure is coming from.
08:39ITC, Sriram Finance, Adani Enterprises, profit booking coming in there.
08:44Grassim is down about 7 tenths of a percent as well.
08:47So, that's really where we're seeing some of the profit booking coming in on the market.
08:51Sheryl, what are you tracking on opening?
08:52Well, Abha, I'm just tracking this dip, which is lower than expected.
09:01That's a very, very big positive for the market.
09:05Overall, 522 stocks in the green and about 1234 in the red.
09:09This ratio should improve for the betterment as far as bears are concerned.
09:15It's the capital market space that's doing extremely well.
09:19Look at Bombay Stock Exchange.
09:21Look at MCX, CDSL.
09:23These are the stocks that are recovering from intraday lows
09:27and doing pretty well as far as markets are concerned.
09:31MCX, 1.9% higher.
09:33Remember, silver.
09:35Remember, gold.
09:36Remember, copper.
09:37No matter what investors do,
09:40MCX will always benefit because of higher volumes.
09:44So, 9,000 is coming on MCX fairly soon in terms of all-time highs.
09:49Fortis Hospital is on a song.
09:52And in terms of top gainers, you have K-Fintech,
09:56you have Fortis, India Cement, Indigo,
09:59as also Hind Copper doing extremely well.
10:02Abha.
10:04All right.
10:04Well, clearly, commodities continue to be in focus
10:06and we'll talk more about that later.
10:08But silver in particular,
10:09and we're also seeing that boost on commodities overnight
10:12given what we saw with regards to volatility in the global markets.
10:17Amrish, we have seen a whole host of metal counters also on the move.
10:20For example, a Hind Copper, which is continuing to be up today as well.
10:23We've seen gold financing related stocks running up
10:26on the back of the price hike that we've seen on gold.
10:29Where within that basket are you looking at for attractive opportunities?
10:34In fact, I think gold finance companies can still see some more upside
10:38because their total universe goes up.
10:41In fact, their security also moves up
10:44because the gold prices are moving up.
10:47So, gold finance companies would be one pocket.
10:50But again, I would say this opportunity possibly could be
10:53over the next three to four months
10:55because whatever is said and done,
10:57I think gold seems to be overbought.
10:59I really don't know as to when the next correction will start.
11:03So, this is a short-term opportunity.
11:05But as far as the other metals are concerned,
11:07I'm quite bullish on steel, zinc, and copper
11:10because copper, again, we are seeing at least another 25% to 30% move from here.
11:15So, I think Hindustan copper could be one of the stocks that we looked at.
11:20And among steel, I would say Tata Steel would be the best stock to buy at this point of time.
11:25In fact, we have a price hike of about $230, $240 for the stock.
11:28Okay. I want to talk about IT as well, Amrish,
11:31because a lot of pressure building up there today.
11:34What do you feel is really happening here?
11:36Because TCS was slightly mixed bag.
11:39People were watching out on the commentary more than anything.
11:42Now, we're watching out for HCL Tech.
11:43But across the board today, a little bit of pressure building up on IT.
11:47See, I think the silver lining as far as IT is concerned
11:51is that the expectations are quite muted.
11:53So, I mean, in case the earnings are slightly better than what the expectations are,
11:59although it would be muted earnings,
12:00but in case it's better than what the investor expectations are,
12:04we could see some sort of a bounce back
12:06because IT has underperformed for a long time.
12:09But as an investor, I would surely wait at least for the next two to three quarters
12:14because as of now, there's a decent amount of uncertainty.
12:18I mean, clearly, H-1B visa will affect IT stocks, at least in the medium term.
12:22In the short term, there's no effect, but at least in the medium term,
12:25there would be surely an effect on the IT stocks because of this.
12:28And the other biggest issue is AI.
12:32We need to see as to how these big boys, in fact, reinvent themselves.
12:37I mean, to make up for the issues which has created for them,
12:42as far as AI is concerned, because there will be margin pressure.
12:46So unless they reinvent themselves, I don't think, I mean,
12:50they can continue holding the sort of margins which they've done in the last decade or two.
12:55So that's something to be looked at.
12:58And TCS also has commented on that.
13:00But we need to see as to how it plays out for the next couple of months.
13:05All right.
13:05So keeping an eye out on IT,
13:07and let's take a look at the screen and the broader markets
13:10and where some of the other trends are,
13:12some of those top performers managing to pull out any shell from that list of 500-odd?
13:17Well, Abha, silver, silver and silver all the way.
13:283.27% higher on MCX.
13:31Gold, 1.5% higher.
13:34Copper, 1.5% higher.
13:36All put together a very strong rally.
13:38Silver bees, the top gainer in the top treated list,
13:422.9% higher, 1.58%.
13:45And the metal itself at 1,51,161.
13:51So this rally refuses to abate.
13:54Two trips that you mentioned on Kotak and SBI,
13:58the mutual funds stopping inflows and silver ETF,
14:01point to a blowout that is going to happen in the cash market for this commodity.
14:07Apart from that strength in a bit of pharma,
14:12Divi's lab is looking good.
14:14CDSL is priming up Bajaj Finance in top shape,
14:19all because of the festival season,
14:22in particular Bajaj Finance.
14:24All right.
14:25Well, let's take a look at what's happening on silver.
14:27Three leading mutual funds,
14:28Kotak, UTI and ICIC Approve,
14:31have temporarily stopped accepting fresh lump sum investments
14:34in their silver ETF fund of funds.
14:36This is aimed at protecting investors from inflated silver prices
14:40in India's physical market as demand massively outstrips supply.
14:44Reportedly, there's an acute shortage of physical silver in the country
14:48due to shipping delays and the festive season demand.
14:51And that's led to a spike in silver prices in the domestic market.
14:55These are now at a huge premium to global rates,
14:57a massive 12% against the normal premium of around half a percentage point.
15:01So new ETF units can't be created as they need the backing of physical silver.
15:07Now, this prevents investors, of course,
15:09from entering at what seems artificially high prices
15:11and subsequently suffering short-term value erosion.
15:15But there's also a catch.
15:17Existing SIPs remain unaffected
15:19and regular investments will go on as usual.
15:22Let me go across to Vandana Bharti,
15:23Head of Commodity Research at S&C Global Securities.
15:26Vandana, thanks for joining us this morning.
15:27Everyone's really interested in what's happening to these silver prices.
15:30Let me first understand that from you
15:32and really what's causing that artificially inflated price level
15:38here in the domestic market.
15:40Yeah, hi Abha.
15:41Good morning.
15:41Thank you for calling me.
15:43And this is the magic metals right now.
15:46And the platform, it was built in last four, five years
15:50when we see that the demand was higher
15:53and supply side was really very scarce.
15:56And you know that this is the metal
15:59where we see very less amount of recycling
16:02as it is happening in gold.
16:04And new silver mines,
16:05it takes around seven to eight years to come into action.
16:08So this time, the demand from, you know,
16:10that AI hardware, solar, 5G,
16:15these are a hot demand for silver.
16:17And there is no substitute of silver metal in these categories.
16:20And it is escalating that ETF buying also.
16:25So first, I share this stock taking the buy side of this silver ETF.
16:32And there was a scarcity.
16:34And everywhere you will find the scarcity stocks out of the stock,
16:38like if you go to buy for that silver coin
16:42and bars in US, in Europe, in China, everywhere.
16:46So this is actual supply tightness in the metal.
16:50But yes, some speculative buying is there right now.
16:53And what is happening is more exciting that
16:56now the physical silver,
16:58it is $3 premium as compared to the future silver.
17:02It is not happening in normal circumstances.
17:05So this is supply tightness in silver.
17:07And this is the war between buying
17:10between physical silver and digital silver.
17:13And physical silver is winning anywhere.
17:14So investors, they should wait to get normalized the situation.
17:19After that, they can get into the silver SIP ETF.
17:23And yes, after two, three months,
17:25we can see that, okay, the situation should get normalized.
17:30And two things I want to add in that.
17:33It is now considering as a strategic model
17:35because many central banks, apart from gold,
17:38they are buying silver physical and silver ETF as well.
17:41And silver ETF is physically bad.
17:43So there is lots of pressure on physical silver.
17:46And fourth thing that Trump recently or U.S. recently
17:50categorized it as critical minerals.
17:53So critical minerals, these are very hot things right now.
17:56And whenever you see the name critical minerals,
17:59they want to possess it, any country, any country, any company.
18:03So there is a huge demand of physical silver.
18:05And it is driving up this supersonic speed rally in silver.
18:11And in auction, we are finding positions near $55.
18:16So yes, rally is yet to get overdone.
18:20And $55, it is going to be seen soon in the market.
18:23Fantastic.
18:25Thanks so much, Vandana,
18:26for running us through all the possible scenarios
18:28and outlook on silver as well as really how best to invest in it
18:32at this point of time.
18:33We've got limited time on the show.
18:34So Amrish, I just want to get a final call from you
18:36in terms of really what you're tracking right now in the market,
18:39what you feel are the areas that one should focus on,
18:42how you're sort of awaiting results from earnings season as well,
18:47and as we count on to Diwali.
18:49I think we're going to be muted.
18:51So don't have any closer expectations from these earnings.
18:54But I think overall, we should see some sort of an uptick
18:57from the December quarter results, which is Q3.
19:00I think that's the time we should see the markets
19:03possibly touching new highs or possibly going beyond that.
19:07For the time being, I would say consumption is the story to be looked at
19:11because of GST, clearly, I mean, this is one space
19:14which is getting benefited.
19:16So in consumption, right from FMCG, white goods, automobiles,
19:19I think these are the three segments to be looked at in this space.
19:22And the other one which I've again started looking at is railways
19:25because that's where, I mean, we have seen an extremely good move
19:29and after that we have seen some sort of a correction,
19:31a decent correction because of the execution issues.
19:34But now I think the execution issues have been sorted out
19:36to a large extent.
19:38So railway stocks would be the other one where one should be looking at.
19:41And the third, which has been my favorite for the last,
19:44I think 15 months, but not really done too well,
19:46expected to start doing well, especially looking at the way
19:49U.S. is behaving with China, is the speciality chemical space.
19:53I think that's the one where I think should get a decent boost
19:57because of these issues.
19:58All right, Amrish, thanks so much for joining us this morning.
20:02Shail, thanks as well for being with us.
20:04That's where we leave it right now, quiet on the index.
20:07In fact, slipping a touch as we speak.
20:0925-200 is where we're trending about.
20:11Power-packed lineup today on Business Today TV's Diwali special,
20:15Market Masters at 11 a.m.
20:17Catch Ramdeo Aghwal, chairman and co-founder of Mutilal Oswal Financial Services.
20:21And at 1 p.m., don't miss global commodity guru Jim Rogers
20:24sharing his festive outlook.
20:26Tune in to our YouTube channel and stay tuned.
20:29Plan, profit and prosper with Business Today TV.
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