00:00LSU and Houston, Joe, 9.15 p.m. Eastern.
00:04That's from the Texas Bowl tonight.
00:06And look at these price points.
00:07Houston actually opened as a look-ahead line, Joe, minus 3.5.
00:11We now see that down to minus 1.5 across the board,
00:14and a total extremely low at 41.5.
00:18Changeover.
00:19Players that we thought might be playing in this game won't be playing, Joe.
00:22A lot of volatility.
00:24What do we see for LSU and Houston?
00:26Yeah, it's like what I said earlier.
00:28I mean, the game, in my opinion, means more to Houston, I believe,
00:31than it does LSU.
00:32Now, LSU did play in this bowl game last year
00:36and throttled Baylor by basically 14 points in that matchup,
00:40and they had a huge day.
00:41They put up 45-plus points against Baylor's defense.
00:44But, again, it's an interim staff.
00:47Frank Wilson's basically already committed to Ole Miss.
00:50He's coaching this team.
00:51But, again, we see no Aaron Anderson.
00:54Now, we do have Barry and Brown.
00:56We do have Trey Des Green.
00:57We do have Xavion Thomas playing for LSU and Van Buren.
01:01But LSU still can't run the football effectively.
01:04With three weeks in prep, are they going to be checked in
01:06or are they going to be checked out?
01:08On the flip side, you have a team in Houston, again,
01:10that has over-exceeded expectations.
01:13In year number two, Willie Fritz, coach, I called you coach.
01:17Donnie, they are 6-0 at home.
01:19They are 6-0 on the road or on their neutral field this year.
01:23Their win total at the start of the year was 5.5.
01:25It was juiced to the over at minus-178.
01:28But they're a 9-3 football team.
01:30I mean, they are one of the best teams heading into bowl season.
01:35And, again, they're motivated.
01:36They can run the football.
01:37They have an experienced quarterback in Connor Wegman.
01:40And they are battle-tested in road environments.
01:43Their best win came on the road in Tempe against Kenny Dillingham and Arizona State,
01:48where they won that matchup by 12 points.
01:51So, again, from the side perspective, I don't really like it.
01:55But it is a fast track.
01:57I do believe LSU can at least score and move the football.
02:01I'm taking the over 41, 42.5, even though Houston is the better team in this matchup.
02:08Look at that.
02:09You looked a lot younger in that AI picture right there, Joe.
02:11It looks like the seasons really wore you down based upon talking about LSU at this point.
02:16Look at that.
02:17Look, look, the Tigers happy.
02:19That's probably down in LSU.
02:20Obviously, home stadium maybe is at the Superdome.
02:23Like, maybe celebrating a little bowl victory down there.
02:25Yeah, look, it looks like a BCS old.
02:27Yeah, look, it looks like a Sugar Bowl back when they beat up on Notre Dame back in, like, 2006, I think.
02:35Hammer time.
02:35How about this one?
02:36Michael Van Buren for LSU.
02:38193.5, Joe.
02:39The expectations for Van Buren, which many people probably don't even know who the kid is.
02:43What are we looking for today from him?
02:44Well, again, I mean, if they're on and they're dialed in, that's a doable number.
02:50Again, LSU is only averaging 106 rushing odds per game.
02:55Again, they do have athletes.
02:57Trey Des Green, I believe, is an X factor for LSU in red zone opportunities.
03:03Anytime touchdown, basically two and a half to one.
03:06Barry and Brown is a speedster.
03:08Xavion Thomas as well.
03:09If they are dialed in and throw the football, I think there's no doubt that Van Buren could blow through that number.
03:17With three weeks of preparation, I'm expecting a better effort.
03:20Now, again, if we're talking quarterbacks, Connor Wegman or Van Buren, I do lean to LSU and Van Buren to blow through his total.
03:28Yeah, it looks like, Joe, again, 41 and a half doesn't really give us those vibes of, oh, let's throw it all around the lot and get a lot of yardage here.
03:35We'll rack it up.
03:35But if it does go over, the running game is going to be a big deal today.
03:38Harlan Berry for LSU, 58 and a half.
03:40Another guy I look at is Connor Wegman.
03:42We know the kid can run 44 and a half as that price point.
03:46I look for extended carries from these guys, Joe.
03:48If we're taking a look at even all rushing yards or total rushing yards for each team.
03:51If you look at LSU, their total rushing yards, Joe, 111 and a half.
03:54For Houston, 117 and a half.
03:57Who wins today on the ground, Joe, between these two teams?
04:00You know, I would lean to Houston just because they are averaging 175 rushing yards per game.
04:07Now, statistically, LSU has one of the best rush defenses, you know, in the SEC, allowing 107 rushing yards per game.
04:16They're dialed in.
04:17That front seven has played very well with Blake Baker.
04:20But, again, I don't have any confidence that they're going to be dialed in in this matchup, Donnie.
04:26After three weeks, after their last game against Oklahoma, if this was a regular season game, I would say, yeah, I'll buy in in that aspect.
04:35LSU has won three straight ball games.
04:37But this is a different year with an interim staff that's potentially checked out.
04:42I would lean to Houston's rushing total.
04:44If you're getting a 60-yard discount on that total heading into this matchup.
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