00:00But if I told you, Donnie, that this game was going to go on our 42-and-a-half total.
00:05Unbelievable.
00:06In the first half, you'd have thought, right?
00:10Last year was 49-17.
00:12Now, DJ Lagway didn't play last year.
00:14It was in Austin.
00:16Quinn Ewers and that offense ran it.
00:18They threw it.
00:19They built a huge first-half lead and never looked back, covered that game at home.
00:22I believe they were laying 17-and-a-half, 18 points in that matchup.
00:26They won it by 32.
00:27But we've seen 41-and-a-halves open in this market.
00:31We're seeing it up to 42-and-a-half.
00:32There's rain in the forecast, potential showers.
00:36That's nothing new for Gainesville.
00:38How does it affect both offenses, though?
00:40When you talk about this team in Florida, they have to find answers.
00:44They're coming off a performance two weeks ago, seven points against Miami, 61 passing yards for DJ Lagway.
00:520 of 13 on third-down conversions.
00:54They're going to need a better effort going up against a defense in Texas, Tani, only allowing seven points per game, holding opposing offenses to 51 rushing yards per game, 159 in the secondary.
01:08It's going to be a very difficult matchup.
01:10But I believe that Florida is live.
01:13This line smells to me.
01:15We're seeing four-and-a-halves in the market right now.
01:18I'll take a shot with Billy Napier on the Gators, but I love the total.
01:22I'm going contrarian.
01:23Points are plenty, 42-and-a-halves.
01:25Both teams off the bye week, extra time to prepare.
01:27You like that for an offense.
01:28Calm it down.
01:29Let's see what they do on defense.
01:30Let's see if we can exploit it.
01:31But let's take a look at both of these teams, Joe, and how they actually got to this point in the season.
01:35The only road game that we saw for Texas, they scored seven points at Ohio State.
01:39Now, granted, number one team in the country, awesome defense.
01:42It is what it is.
01:43San Jose State at home, 38-7.
01:45UTEP, 27-10.
01:48Sam Houston State, 55-0.
01:50I'm not giving any bonus points for those games.
01:52Now, differently here for Florida, Joe, you have an opening game against LIU.
01:56You beat them 55-0.
01:57That's what you're supposed to do at home.
01:59But understand this now.
02:00Look at the next three games.
02:01USF, oh, they lost to them.
02:03Still 18-16.
02:04USF's a pretty good football program right now.
02:06Then you take a look at LSU.
02:08On the road, tough environment.
02:09It wasn't 36-10.
02:10It was 20-10.
02:11And they were brutal on offense.
02:13The defense kept them in it.
02:14Miami, who was a top-five football team.
02:17That game was a lot closer than the 26-7 indicates here.
02:20So, Joe, I look at a football team in Texas.
02:22Tough game number one.
02:24Florida, tough schedule overall.
02:26What do we got?
02:27Well, again, it comes down to the rushing attack for Florida.
02:30They're averaging 123 yards on the ground.
02:33The reason why I say they need a hint of a rushing attack today,
02:36because if you put DJ Lagway in the predictable third-down situations,
02:40it's going to be lights out.
02:42They're only converting 30% of their third-down opportunities.
02:45That's been a problem for this offense right now.
02:48Not a lot of home run hitters.
02:49And you've got to benefit.
02:50Texas is athletic in the front seven and in the secondary.
02:53One of the best secondaries.
02:55Last year, this year statistically as well, like I said,
02:58holding opposing quarterbacks under 60% completion percentage.
03:01So, if they can run the football Florida, win the turnover battle,
03:05that is critical, too, against Arch Manning.
03:07They have a shot to put up points and potentially win this game.
03:11Again, it's not going to be easy, but you're at home.
03:14Every time Billy Napier is in this situation as an underdog,
03:18he finds a way to get off the hot seat.
03:20I'll roll the dice with Florida.
03:22Again, not one of my better picks today, but I like the Gators with the points.
03:25But what is the reasoning, Joe?
03:26We saw the opening line, 7 1⁄2.
03:28It's now sitting at 4 1⁄2.
03:30Like, we're trying to explain to you, like, Florida has a tougher schedule.
03:32Maybe they're playing teams closer.
03:33But could this be a game where we're lying in the weeds saying,
03:36all right, well, Steve Sarkeesian finally got his offense going.
03:39They took a bye week here, and now they're cruising.
03:41Are there any expectations for your side that Texas is going to get up off the mat
03:45and be like, no, we're the same team that everybody thought we were?
03:48If we were not gamblers and we didn't look at the odds perspective just on paper,
03:53Texas should win this game by 17-plus.
03:56Now, we saw a similar situation last week with Notre Dame and Arkansas.
04:01Why did that line go basically from 6 1⁄2 down to 4 1⁄2, right?
04:05People weren't buying in to Notre Dame being a legitimate team.
04:09They struggled in their first two games.
04:11We didn't see a whole lot out of that defense.
04:13And Arkansas had their back against the wall with Sam Pittman,
04:16who was fired after the game, and they needed the game desperately
04:19and had an offense that was putting up 500 total yards.
04:23This is a different aspect, though.
04:24There is nothing going for Florida from an offensive perspective outside their defense.
04:30So, if their defense keeps them in it, what do you get from that offense?
04:34That's why I say they have to open it up.
04:36That's why I like the over 42 1⁄2.
04:37I'm with you on the 42 1⁄2 because you understand this.
04:40The expectations coming into the season, Joe, Texas is going to move the football on anybody.
04:43Oh, D.J. Lagwe, he might win the Heisman.
04:45Well, where has it been?
04:46Well, maybe it takes a bye week here and also Florida to understand this could be a last stand.
04:51Handing the football off on 3rd and 7 on the 20-yard line to get closer for a field goal,
04:55that's not the way you win football games here.
04:57We'll see what Billy Napier has to do today on offense to get the job done.
Be the first to comment