00:00Today, we're looking at a major development in Asian geopolitics, and it centers on China's
00:21latest military assessment by the Pentagon and India's northeastern state of Arunachal Pradesh.
00:27In its 2025 annual report to the U.S. Congress, the Pentagon says China has expanded the list
00:35of what it calls core interests. These are issues Beijing considers non-negotiable,
00:42central to sovereignty, and tied to China's national rejuvenation goals by 2049.
00:49For the first time ever, the report says China now includes Arunachal, which it refers to as
00:56Zangnan, or South Tibet, alongside Taiwan, the South China Sea, and the Senkaku Islands.
01:06That's a major shift, because although China has always claimed Arunachal,
01:11it had not previously elevated it to this core interest category in public language.
01:16The Pentagon warns this move could turn Arunachal into a future flashpoint, similar to Taiwan,
01:25especially as China rapidly modernizes its military and keeps strong deployments along
01:30the line of actual control, the LAC, with India.
01:36China's foreign ministry has rejected the report, accusing Washington of distorting its policies
01:42and trying to undermine progress in China-India relations. Beijing says its strategy toward India
01:48remains long-term and positive, though it continues to assert its claims over Arunachal.
01:56At the same time, the report highlights China's growing military cooperation with Pakistan,
02:02including major naval support, which indirectly increases pressure on India.
02:07India. So how is India responding?
02:11Since the deadly Galwan clash in 2020, India has stayed on high alert along the nearly 3,500-kilometer
02:18border. Troop levels remain very high. Infrastructure has been rapidly expanded, with new roads, tunnels,
02:26bridges, and airstrips across the Himalayas to support faster movement.
02:30Arunachal itself is now heavily fortified, and analysts point out that the state is almost three
02:40times the size of Taiwan, meaning any attempt at capture would require massive escalation
02:46and face extreme logistical challenges.
02:52Diplomatically, there has been some cautious thawing.
02:55Talks in 2025 led to partial disengagement in eastern Ladakh, and Prime Minister Modi met
03:01President Xi at the SCO summit, stressing mutual trust and respect.
03:08But India remains skeptical. Several encroached areas are still occupied by the PLA,
03:15seen in New Delhi as pressure tactics rather than real stabilization.
03:18So the big question, could this lead to another India-China war? Experts say the probability remains
03:27low in the near term. Both countries are nuclear powers, deeply interconnected economically,
03:33and aware that conflict would be hugely costly. Past clashes from 1962 to Doklam in 2017
03:40and Galwan in 2020 have stayed limited.
03:43Yes, Arunachal's new core interest status raises the temperature, but actual invasion would be
03:51extremely difficult. The terrain is high altitude and favors defenders.
04:00There's also the global dimension. If war broke out, the United States and Quad partners would likely
04:05support India indirectly through intelligence, logistics, and naval presence, but not through
04:11a NATO-style treaty commitment. Analysts estimate the risk of a broader world war remains low
04:18because nuclear deterrence forces restraint and because neither Beijing nor Washington wants
04:23direct confrontation. So, the outlook. Arunachal Pradesh is now a sharper point of friction.
04:31India remains alert. China continues to signal resolve. And the Pentagon's warning suggests the region
04:36will stay one of the world's most sensitive military frontiers.
04:43But for now, the most likely path is cold competition, not open war.
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