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Tensions rise as the Pentagon’s 2025 report warns that China has added India’s Arunachal Pradesh to its list of “core interests,” elevating the region to the same status as Taiwan and the South China Sea. Analysts say this could turn Arunachal into a future flashpoint, though India’s military remains alert and heavily fortified along the LAC. While diplomatic talks continue, the report underscores China’s growing assertiveness and military cooperation with Pakistan, raising regional security concerns.

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00:00Today, we're looking at a major development in Asian geopolitics, and it centers on China's
00:21latest military assessment by the Pentagon and India's northeastern state of Arunachal Pradesh.
00:27In its 2025 annual report to the U.S. Congress, the Pentagon says China has expanded the list
00:35of what it calls core interests. These are issues Beijing considers non-negotiable,
00:42central to sovereignty, and tied to China's national rejuvenation goals by 2049.
00:49For the first time ever, the report says China now includes Arunachal, which it refers to as
00:56Zangnan, or South Tibet, alongside Taiwan, the South China Sea, and the Senkaku Islands.
01:06That's a major shift, because although China has always claimed Arunachal,
01:11it had not previously elevated it to this core interest category in public language.
01:16The Pentagon warns this move could turn Arunachal into a future flashpoint, similar to Taiwan,
01:25especially as China rapidly modernizes its military and keeps strong deployments along
01:30the line of actual control, the LAC, with India.
01:36China's foreign ministry has rejected the report, accusing Washington of distorting its policies
01:42and trying to undermine progress in China-India relations. Beijing says its strategy toward India
01:48remains long-term and positive, though it continues to assert its claims over Arunachal.
01:56At the same time, the report highlights China's growing military cooperation with Pakistan,
02:02including major naval support, which indirectly increases pressure on India.
02:07India. So how is India responding?
02:11Since the deadly Galwan clash in 2020, India has stayed on high alert along the nearly 3,500-kilometer
02:18border. Troop levels remain very high. Infrastructure has been rapidly expanded, with new roads, tunnels,
02:26bridges, and airstrips across the Himalayas to support faster movement.
02:30Arunachal itself is now heavily fortified, and analysts point out that the state is almost three
02:40times the size of Taiwan, meaning any attempt at capture would require massive escalation
02:46and face extreme logistical challenges.
02:52Diplomatically, there has been some cautious thawing.
02:55Talks in 2025 led to partial disengagement in eastern Ladakh, and Prime Minister Modi met
03:01President Xi at the SCO summit, stressing mutual trust and respect.
03:08But India remains skeptical. Several encroached areas are still occupied by the PLA,
03:15seen in New Delhi as pressure tactics rather than real stabilization.
03:18So the big question, could this lead to another India-China war? Experts say the probability remains
03:27low in the near term. Both countries are nuclear powers, deeply interconnected economically,
03:33and aware that conflict would be hugely costly. Past clashes from 1962 to Doklam in 2017
03:40and Galwan in 2020 have stayed limited.
03:43Yes, Arunachal's new core interest status raises the temperature, but actual invasion would be
03:51extremely difficult. The terrain is high altitude and favors defenders.
04:00There's also the global dimension. If war broke out, the United States and Quad partners would likely
04:05support India indirectly through intelligence, logistics, and naval presence, but not through
04:11a NATO-style treaty commitment. Analysts estimate the risk of a broader world war remains low
04:18because nuclear deterrence forces restraint and because neither Beijing nor Washington wants
04:23direct confrontation. So, the outlook. Arunachal Pradesh is now a sharper point of friction.
04:31India remains alert. China continues to signal resolve. And the Pentagon's warning suggests the region
04:36will stay one of the world's most sensitive military frontiers.
04:43But for now, the most likely path is cold competition, not open war.
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