00:00Now I want to talk about an intradivisional trait, and this happened at the end of last week.
00:05Shane Boz, who has so much promise, so much potential, goes from Tampa to Baltimore.
00:14Baltimore lands their fish.
00:16I don't know if we can call it a big fish, but they do it for a humongous haul.
00:19Former first-round pick outfielder Slater DeBrun.
00:22Former first-round caliber pick last year, Caden Bodine, the catcher from Coastal Carolina.
00:26Michael Ferret, a right-handed pitching prospect that I know a lot of people like.
00:30Outfielder Austin Overn, who swiped north of 50 bags last year in the minor leagues.
00:34And a competitive balance round, A pick.
00:37That comes right after the end of the first round.
00:39The value is immense that Tampa just took on.
00:44Baltimore takes on Boz, and we were talking about this a little bit earlier today off-camera.
00:49You have no idea how to wrap your head around Boz, the pitcher.
00:52I have no idea how to do it either.
00:54He's got three or four years left to control.
00:56I think it's four years left to control.
00:57It's three.
00:58I think everyone's confused because he's a super two guy.
01:00But okay, so he's arb two, arb three, arb four at this point.
01:05So Shane Boz has three years of control.
01:07Shane Boz, to this point, since he debuted in 2021, has 54 starts under his belt.
01:13That's a year and a half.
01:14And it's taken him five years to get to this number.
01:17There was Tommy John sprinkled in there, but it's 286 innings at a 4.25 ERA.
01:23I understand the underlying metrics look really good.
01:26I understand the shapes of the arsenal are really good.
01:30But at the end of the day, it's fewer than 300 innings over the last five years at a 4.25 ERA in the big leagues.
01:37And you gave up this much for him?
01:40Can you make it make sense?
01:41The more I've been able to digest it, the more I'm understanding it because I think the nuance of what the Orioles are trying to do and where they're at situationally with their organization kind of makes sense.
01:57Like, we've given Mike Elias a hard time, I think a lot of people have, for clutching onto prospects, right?
02:02But he has shown the willingness to kind of do these trades where you're not trading your top-end guys, where we saw DL Hall, Joey Ortiz, good prospects, but got moved for Corbin Burns.
02:12We saw it with the Zach Eflin deal, Bo Meister, and Matt Corvath, and another piece.
02:16We've seen them do it.
02:17But it's clear that Elias does not want to give up the high upside pieces, and I can understand that.
02:23I can understand that.
02:24So if you would rather give up bulk than high upside guys, this would be the way to do it.
02:33But the biggest part about this trade, I think, is whether you think it's a great deal for the Orioles or a bad deal for the Orioles, my initial reaction was, wow, that's a steep price to pay.
02:42It all lies in what you think of Shane Boz.
02:45And that's why this has been such a mixed reactions trade, because there's a wide range of opinions on Shane Boz.
02:52And I think my opinion on the trade kind of maybe unfairly was conflated with, well, if you traded Grayson for that, then why would you acquire Boz for this?
03:00That's a whole different conversation.
03:02But the clear thing here is, I don't think any of the guys that the Orioles traded are going to be all-stars.
03:08You never know.
03:09I don't think they're ever going to be all-stars based on their skill set.
03:11But with that same notion, based on their skill set, I think several of those guys have a very good chance of being a big leaguer one role or another.
03:20Like, I think you look at Caden Bodine, at worst, that guy's a backup big league catcher.
03:24I think there's a good chance he's an average regular big league catcher with a plus hit tool, elite receiving, if the catch and throw gets a little bit better.
03:31I think you look at Slater DeBrun, he's further off, but he has the skill set to be at least a fourth outfielder.
03:38But you can dream on a little bit more there, given that he's got plus speed, could be an above-average hitter, wiry strong, could play center field.
03:45And then for Red, I think, is the wider range of outcomes guy, because you have a fastball that's above average.
03:51He dominated across the board, and Podcast P, you're crushing it with the graphics here.
03:55But Slater's plus, curveball could be above-average, change-ups there.
03:59I should add, he also had a sweeper last year, so it's like this deep bag of pitches.
04:03And then you put a 6'3 guy with room for more velo, 6'4, into that organization, the Rays may maximize him.
04:10So, Ferret's may be the biggest variable, but then the other side of it is, you just acquired probably the 36th or 37th overall pick, depending on how free agency shakes out.
04:20The Rays have the number two overall pick in the draft and a comp B pick.
04:23They now have the biggest bonus pool, if I'm not mistaken, and they can run this draft.
04:28So, for the Rays, and the way Neander said it was like, Eric Neander said, we weren't really actively shopping, Baz.
04:35We got offered a package that we just couldn't refuse.
04:38I imagine their model said, you have to accept this.
04:41That said, the Orioles get to keep all of their high-upside guys.
04:45Nate George doesn't go.
04:47Mejia doesn't go.
04:48Of course, Basayo, Mayo, all those other guys.
04:51Ike Irish doesn't go.
04:52And that's the guy that I would say has the higher ceiling.
04:55Aloy, who has a higher ceiling, doesn't go.
04:57And I think that's what the Orioles are okay with, even if it meant paying a little bit more on the value perspective, because none of those guys are going to be all-stars in their eyes.
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