JMU vs. Oregon: The College Football Playoff Showdown

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00:00And JMU goes, what, 3,000 miles out to the Pacific Northwest to take on Oregon?

00:04And this one, a heavy favorite show for Oregon.

00:07We saw that opening line around 20 and a half, give or take,

00:10depending where you're shopping at.

00:11We're now above at most outlets, 21s.

00:14The 21 and a halfs were popping up yesterday.

00:15They're actually gone at this point.

00:16So let's just start here with the number itself and also JMU as a deserving participant.

00:22The one thing I like to say is I don't think they should be in, but it's not their fault.

00:25They did everything they're supposed to do to be in the college football playoff.

00:28Don't hold it against them, and here they are today.

00:30Yeah, their one loss came to Louisville.

00:32Since that point, they won 11 straight and won those games basically, Donnie,

00:36by an average margin of victory of 23.4 points per game.

00:41Statistically, they have, in the first round, the best rush defense

00:44out of any team entering these first-round games, holding opposing offenses to 76,

00:50rushing yards per game, and only 2.4 yards per carry.

00:54But you have David versus Goliath, right?

00:56Not only do you have to go in to a 3,000-mile trip, but basically, you have to go up against

01:02the speed and physicality of Oregon and Dan Lanning, right?

01:06And Dante Moore and this explosive offensive Oregon that's averaging 38 points per game.

01:11They're balanced.

01:12They're rushing for 218 on the ground, 246 through the air.

01:16Defensively, they're only allowing 144 passing yards per game.

01:21And every time this Oregon offense pounds the rock for over 200 yards on the ground

01:26with Noah Whittingham and those running backs, they are undefeated.

01:30Against FBS opponents, they don't just win, Donnie.

01:33They dominate 6-0.

01:35Their FBS wins every time they rush for over 200 by 32.4 points per game.

01:41They're laying 21.5 for a reason.

01:43But again, JMU has an opportunity if they play their type of game, win the turnover battle,

01:50slow the tempo.

01:51It could be a similar type of game.

01:54What we saw, basically, Wisconsin and Oregon.

01:57That game, I believe, was 21-7.

01:59And that was a game where Oregon, at home, basically laid three touchdowns.

02:04You might see a similar type of effort today out of the Dukes.

02:08Now, tell me about this total, Joe.

02:09Because you look at some outlets out there, you know, the Fan Duels, the DraftKings,

02:12they were hovering around 50 points here at the opening.

02:14We're no longer there.

02:15We're down basically a touchdown.

02:1645.5 across the board.

02:18Still have a 46 at Bet365 here in New Jersey.

02:21How do we feel about the total?

02:22Because I heard what you just said, and it makes sense.

02:25JMU's goal is not, you know what, let's get as many plays as we can on an offense.

02:28Let's go toe-to-toe with Oregon.

02:29But sometimes those best laid plans go out the window as a three-touchdown dog

02:32where, oh, no, we're down 14-0 in the first quarter.

02:35You can't slow it down anymore, Joe.

02:37You can't.

02:38I mean, at 45.5, Donnie, I would be inclined to take the over

02:42just because of the speed of Oregon, right?

02:45It's one thing that we know that JMU potentially, on any given Saturday,

02:50we saw in college football throughout history,

02:5240-point dogs can cover and win the game outright.

02:55That's not what we're talking about.

02:57In this matchup, the speed of Oregon on the outside,

03:01the passing attack of Dante Moore could be one or two chunk plays

03:05where you're playing a 13-7 game in two seconds.

03:08The game could be 28-7, and then it's lights out,

03:11and then all of a sudden you have an over on your hands.

03:14It would have to be a perfect run, I believe,

03:17to get an under 45.5 in this matchup,

03:20and I just can't buy it in a playoff type of format.

03:24Let me ask you an extra curricular in this game, Joe.

03:26Would you feel more confident with JMU getting 21 points

03:29if Chesney was not leaving, like he's got one foot out the door?

03:32Does that have any bearing in how you look at this?

03:33Because understand this, we understand he's going to be putting in the work,

03:37but we're human beings.

03:38Yeah.

03:38I mean, here's the thing.

03:40He's there, so that's important, right?

03:43Summerall's there for Tulane as well.

03:45I just think that I'd be inclined if I'd be more inclined

03:49to take the 21.5, hoping that JMU can run the football.

03:54Maybe that defense gets one or two turnovers,

03:57and all of a sudden you cover a backdoor type of number.

04:00You could be down by 28.

04:01You could be down by 30 in the fourth quarter.

04:03You get two garbage touchdowns, and all of a sudden,

04:06easier said than done, but you could still cover the backdoor.

04:08So I like the 21.5 in that aspect,

04:11but I just think Oregon's a more complete team.

04:14I think they blow them out.

04:15I don't know.

04:15I like the 21.5 in that part.

04:23I think the 21.5 in that aspect of the game's sake,

04:24I like the 21.5 in that aspect.

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