- 7 months ago
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00:00I want to start on how busy 2025 really was. Looking ahead to 2026, do you expect the same
00:06kind of pace with respect to trade deals, with respect to trade announcements?
00:12Well, during 2025, President Trump, the administration has essentially reset the
00:18global trading order to move from total liberal trade in the United States without any cost to
00:24a new fair and balanced approach. We've announced lots of trade deals. We've announced lots of
00:30tariffs, as you know. In the coming year, we expect to finalize a bunch of those trade deals as well.
00:36I think that the tariff plan is in good shape. I think we have a lot of the tariffs we want in
00:40place. If there are countries here and there that don't comply with their deals or don't want
00:44to finish a deal, then maybe we have to have another conversation. But I think the economy
00:49is booming. Inflation is down. Wages are up. We're on a really great track.
00:52How much are you potentially at risk should the Supreme Court overturn some of the tariffs that
00:59have been enacted under the IEPA provision? Do you have something in place to get those tariffs
01:04through other measures? Or will there be a rethink about what will be put on and what won't?
01:11Well, it would be terrible if the Supreme Court overturned the case because we have built a new
01:15global trading order on the back of these tariffs and the tariff system. And our trading partners have
01:21accepted it and they've made deals and they've accepted there's going to be some tariff level
01:24to help protect U.S. industry. So it would be disastrous if this was pulled out. All that being
01:30said, we will do whatever we need to do to make sure that we can maintain the tariffs we need
01:35and keep the deals in place. Obviously, we want the flexibility of the emergency powers that
01:41Congress has given to the president. That's the most effective way to deal with it. So it's made
01:45him so effective this year in negotiating. But absent that, you know, we'll work and we'll find
01:50a way to make sure we can keep all these gains we've made over the past year. Representative Greer,
01:54there's also a feeling right now that cost of living concerns are coming to the fore. And President
01:59Trump has talked about removing some of tariffs on specific goods, particularly having to do with
02:03food, as a way of alleviating some of the price concerns. How does that factor into discussions going
02:09forward? Do you think that that will be an increasing part of your of your thought process
02:14as you go through some of these trade negotiations? Well, any good president wants to address
02:19affordability. And our president is. And over the past month, we saw dairy, fruit and vegetables,
02:26all kinds of prices go down for basic staples. So that's a great development. Going forward,
02:33the president removed some tariffs in connection with some deals related to food coming from abroad,
02:38bananas, coffee, cocoa, the kinds of things we just don't make in the United States. United States
02:42is a food powerhouse. When we saw inflation earlier, it's really about housing health care driven by
02:48Obamacare disaster. So I don't think that, you know, food imports are really going to be an issue for
02:54us. You know, the tariff program is really about creating jobs. And the president's regulatory approach
02:58is really about bringing prices down and bringing affordability. Ambassador, have you had any specific
03:03directives from the president, though, as you carry out your negotiations to make sure any tariffs you
03:08put on from here or any ones that you negotiate specifically are not having an impact on
03:13affordability? So I, you know, kind of the way you put it there, a specific direction, I would say no.
03:20Whenever we're imposing tariffs or doing deals, the purpose of the trade program is to reshore
03:25American manufacturing and protect American food security. It's really about jobs and increasing wages,
03:32which we've seen over the past few months. When it comes to prices, the president is undertaking a lot
03:37of other actions, you know, energy policy, tax policy, regulatory, you know, gas prices are down,
03:43et cetera. So we don't see the trade policy really as driving prices. We see it as driving jobs.
03:48Ambassador, I'd love to go back where Lisa started, and that is it looks more likely that we
03:53indeed have something of a TikTok deal where U.S. buyers will take the American portion. You, after some
03:59of the negotiations in Madrid, were talking about how this deal, how this company was part and parcel of a
04:04variety of matters when it comes to negotiating with your Chinese counterparts. So have you had
04:10more discussions about this deal with TikTok? Does it seem likely that China will let it happen?
04:17So there are two layers to the TikTok deal. One is the private sector layer, where the private
04:22parties are concluding a deal. And then there's a layer of government approvals between the United
04:27States and China. And so my conversations with the Chinese government over the past few months,
04:31as you mentioned, have covered a variety of issues. One of them has been TikTok.
04:36Back at our discussions in Madrid, we came to an essential agreement that if the private parties
04:42came to agreement, that the Chinese would approve it. So we expect approval by the government of China
04:47in alignment with that agreement we reached earlier this year.
04:50We're hearing about not only this deal with respect to TikTok and some investors in the U.S.,
04:56but also a review process to sell H200 chips into China. And I'm just wondering, stepping back,
05:03if all of these are pieces of a bigger deal that will come to fruition in 2026 between the U.S. and China.
05:11I would say with the H200 export control issues, those really are standalone.
05:17That was not a negotiated outcome in the United States with respect to export controls.
05:22Those are not something that are really subject to negotiation. Those are national security
05:26and commercial decisions made by the federal government. So that's kind of standing on its
05:30own. With respect to the rest of the China deal, right now we're trying to make sure that rare
05:35earths continue flowing from China. They've bought over 5 million metric tons of soybeans at this point,
05:41and we're trying to keep trade flowing between the two countries in a way that makes sense.
05:45Do you expect a bigger deal other than just sort of steady reset kind of idea that we've talked
05:52about with respect to the U.S. and China? Do you expect something more comprehensive
05:55to be outlined next year?
05:58It's a little hard to say at this point. Goal one is stability. For me, and everyone's heard me say
06:04this before, we need trade with China to be much more balanced. Our trade deficit with China has
06:10decreased by 25 percent this year alone under President Trump's policy, so that's going the right
06:14direction. I can first see a situation in the first half of next year where we come to some kind
06:19of agreement with China on exactly what we should be trading with each other and even in what volumes.
06:24It's a little bit of managed trade, but it's the kind of thing that can be healthy and stable,
06:29given the way that Chinese government runs its economy. It just doesn't mesh very well with the
06:34way we want to run our economy. That just means we have to manage it a little bit more,
06:37and I think there's a possibility of that. I'm not sure I'd call it comprehensive,
06:40but I'd call it confidence building. Ambassador, I think a lot of the confusion
06:44for many people comes around national security. One of the points that you mentioned just a moment
06:49ago, especially things with H-200 chips, giving chips to China was seen an issue of national
06:55security, even giving F-35s to Saudi Arabia. What does that mean for national security? Because
07:01critics would say that it means that national security is up for sale. What would you say to
07:06those critics? So with respect to the F-35s, that's not my – I used to be in the Air Force,
07:12but it's not my wheelhouse. I'm H-200s in export controls generally. Export controls have always
07:18been fluid. They've never been static. The very nature of export controls is that the U.S.
07:23government is constantly reviewing the state of technology and assessing what technologies can
07:29be sold and which ones can't, and balancing national security, and assessing whether or not
07:33there's foreign availability. Everyone knows that the Chinese are quickly also trying to develop
07:39their own AI chips, semiconductor tools to make those chips, et cetera. It's a race. All of those
07:45H-200 approvals still have to go through the Commerce Department to make sure that any licenses that are
07:50granted really respect U.S. national security and make sure that it's not violated, and there can be
07:56conditions on licenses, et cetera, to make sure they go to end users and end uses that don't jeopardize
08:01U.S. national security. Is it fair to say then, Ambassador, that even if this does go through,
08:06the kind of cases where this is allowed, where it's approved, will still be quite limited in scope?
08:11So it's hard to say at this point that these types of license applications are typically case-by-case
08:17and reviewed. So we'll see. The way it's set up right now is if the chips are going to go to China,
08:23they come back to the U.S. for a security inspection to make sure that they are indeed the types of chips that
08:27are being allowed to be sent to the Chinese. We know there are a lot of Chinese companies that
08:32want them. We know the Chinese government's pretty interested in having their own domestic
08:36champions build them. So the Chinese themselves right now are having a conversation about
08:40the types of chips that they want from the United States. We think that they want the H-200s.
08:45They've shown an interest in that. So we'll see, between their process and ours, we'll see where it goes.
08:51It seems like the tech wars have been behind a lot of the negotiations over the past 12 months,
08:56in particular, not only with China, but also the European Union. I'm just wondering where some
09:00of those discussions are with respect to some of the restrictions and regulatory investigations
09:07Europe has been making toward U.S. tech companies. Where are some of those discussions?
09:13So I just had a conversation yesterday with my counterpart in the European Commission yesterday
09:20to reinforce some of the strong concerns we're hearing from U.S. stakeholders.
09:26U.S. tech companies are the most competitive in the world. And Europe, frankly, doesn't have those
09:33types of competitors. If you talk to the Europeans, they'll say that's why we have to regulate and
09:38have these protectionist measures against U.S. tech companies. Unfortunately, we see in the way that
09:44they've developed those measures. They're discriminatory. They only capture companies
09:48above a certain threshold of revenue globally or certain business models. And magically,
09:53it only happens to capture U.S. companies. They'll say that they're Chinese companies, too. But we only
09:58see actions against American companies. So it's a problem. It's discriminatory in fact. You'll hear
10:03the Europeans say, well, it's fair, but it's discriminatory in fact and in intent. So I want to talk to
10:10these folks. I want to negotiate over it. They've been somewhat resistant to that. But again, I had a great
10:15conversation yesterday with the European Trade Commissioner. And I think we just have to be able to talk
10:20about why they're doing this and why they're purporting to regulate American companies and their global
10:24business models. Ambassador, coming into 2025, a lot of people were wondering who our allies and who our
10:30adversaries would be on trade. And we were talking about who traditionally have been U.S. allies and who
10:36haven't. Have you been surprised at who's been most difficult to deal with in 2025? It has surprised
10:42a lot of people in the markets to see the likes of Europe be a more contentious discussion than other
10:48regions, even sometimes China. That's because they haven't been trade negotiators. I have not been
10:54surprised at where it's been more challenging. Take India, for example, who's an important partner and
11:00a strategic partner in a lot of ways. We started negotiating with them early in the year and we're still
11:05negotiating with them to try and find a good landing zone. During that time, we have other trade
11:09partners who have come in, started, proceeded with and concluded trade negotiations with us,
11:15et cetera. The reality is somebody like Europe and frankly, you know, some jurisdictions that want
11:20to emulate them, they, you know, they might have relatively low tariffs compared to the rest of the
11:25world, but they have non-tariff barriers, regulations that exclude American agriculture,
11:30which is one of our major exports, and regulations that exclude our industrial exports.
11:34And so you get into this. And this is why we have giant imbalances. It's not because Europe is
11:38really competitive. We know they're not. It's because they have a lot of these rules that
11:42prevent U.S. goods and services from going into the continent. Ambassador Greer, just to finish up
11:47on Mexico, which has been negotiating from what we understand, they just recently gave final approval
11:54to put tariffs on certain Chinese imports. And a lot of people are expecting there to be
11:59some sort of reprieve with respect to aluminum and steel tariffs on Mexico. Is there any discussion
12:05about that going on right now? So first of all, any country in the world who exports steel and
12:12aluminum to the United States wants to have a modification to that regime because the United
12:17States for many years has been the consumer of last resort. And this is why the president
12:21put steel aluminum tariffs on in the first administration. The Biden administration kept
12:25them and the president has tightened them further in his second administration. Of course, the
12:30Mexicans are asking for this. We have found the Mexicans to be quite constructive in some
12:35of our recent discussions and looking to change some of their laws and regulations related to
12:40longstanding U.S. concerns. So have the Mexicans asked about this? Yes. You know, I won't give
12:46any further detail beyond that, but it's certainly something that they would like to see. It's not surprising.
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