00:00the Russia-Ukraine war to an end. The president had a call with Europeans yesterday. His special
00:05envoy, Witkoff, and his team continue to talk with both sides, literally as we speak. If there
00:11is a real chance of signing a peace agreement, if we feel like those meetings are worthy of someone
00:17on the United States' time this weekend, then we will send a representative. What is the holdup?
00:24It's land, of course. Let's take a look at the maps and see where things stand. Now, prior to Russia's
00:30full-scale invasion in Ukraine, it already occupied Crimea, parts of Donetsk and Luhansk,
00:37which operate as breakaway states, recognised and supported by Russia. Now, this stayed like this
00:44until, well, since 2014. Now, almost four years since Russia's full-scale invasion, which Putin
00:51claimed would take only three days, the maps look like this. Everything that you see here in red
00:58is now Russian control. The green land up here near Kharkiv and Kherson, well, that's land that
01:04the Ukrainians have gained back. Vladimir Zelenskyy wants to continue to Ukraine's defence until that
01:11red line here turns green again. But Vladimir Putin won't walk away empty-handed unless he can keep the
01:18maps looking like this or trade some of his territory for the entire Donetsk and Luhansk region,
01:25known as the Donbass. An unlikely concession on President Zelenskyy's watch.
01:32So the question becomes, where can we go from here? Let's bring in our experts to discuss Colonel
01:36U.S. Marine Corps, retired and senior advisor with the CSIS, Defence and Security Department,
01:42Mark Kansian, plus national security analyst and former U.S. Secret Service, Barry Donadio.
01:47Welcome to you both. Thank you. Thanks for having me. So Colonel Kansian, a spokesperson for the
01:53Kremlin said only yesterday that the entire Donbass belongs to Russia. What are the real chances of this
01:59actually being the end result, sir? Well, the dispute is over part of Donetsk province. The Russians
02:08control about two-thirds of it. They want Ukraine to concede the other third. Ukraine is unwilling to do
02:15that. Zelenskyy argues that that can only be done by the Ukrainian people in some sort of plebiscite.
02:23And they've been quite adamant about that, that they're not going to give the Russians any
02:28territory that they haven't already occupied. Barry, the U.S. framework also requests that
02:33Ukraine hold elections. And this is something that they have agreed to. What could the conflict
02:39look like, though, under new Ukrainian leadership? Do you see it changing at all?
02:45Thanks for having me on. Yeah, I think this would favour Vladimir Putin. He wants a government
02:50that's going to favour Russia and maybe not be so hostile against Russia and maybe start to try to
02:57make peace. That's why he wants Zelenskyy out of there. But the bottom line is, let's not forget,
03:02Russia wants all of Ukraine at the end of the day, not just Donetsk and some of the other regions.
03:08You're right. And we've seen before in the past when a pro-Russia president has tried to step in
03:15the way that the Ukrainians have reacted. You only have to think about the orange revolution there as
03:20well. So the chances of Zelenskyy, I do believe, feel, you know, will still be the same under the next
03:30president or if they continue to keep him in. But Colonel Katzian, we also saw a notable reversal
03:35from President Trump here because he says that the US will take part in providing Ukraine security
03:41assurances to end the war. And this is that something that Ukraine and Zelenskyy were asking
03:46for. But he had rejected this in the past. What would these security assurances look like?
03:52Well, the president hasn't been clear. It is an important statement on his part that he will
03:58participate in security guarantees because that's the second big issue out there. Zelenskyy and the
04:04Ukrainians want guarantees that Russia will not attack again. And if it does, that they will be
04:11able to defend themselves. They, of course, would like to join NATO. That itself isn't in the cards,
04:17but it's possible that they could continue their current close relationship, maybe get some sort of
04:22peacekeepers, maybe get some sort of guarantees about territorial integrity, maybe have forces
04:31in Eastern Europe that would be able to support Ukraine if the war broke out again, maybe air power.
04:40But this is a key element for Ukraine.
04:44Yeah. Barry, I want to go back to this idea, notion of, you know, elections in Ukraine.
04:48What do we know about the popularity of Zelenskyy? Should those elections carry out? How likely is
04:54he to be reelected if he's on the ballot? I think he'll win overwhelmingly. The Ukrainians
05:01support him. Obviously, the Russians don't. That's why they want him out. So ultimately,
05:06this is a sore point for Russia. They look at it as a way to win the war over everything,
05:11getting Zelenskyy out of there. If they eliminate him from the stage, then just much more easier for them
05:18to do what they want. Yeah. Something else that's important to bring up just on that case,
05:23because you brought up the subject again, is that not having elections is part of wartime.
05:29That's natural over there for wartime. It's not like Zelenskyy said, I don't want elections.
05:34They don't try and change leadership during the war. Same thing happened in Israel as well with
05:38Netanyahu. But let's switch gears now anyway, quickly, because we want to talk about Venezuela.
05:42The seizure of the oil tanker is sparking a lot of controversy, obviously. The vessel was seized on
05:48the grounds that its oil sales violated American sanctions on Venezuela and just bankrolls the
05:54Maduro regime. Critics, however, contend that the action undermines international norms by targeting a
06:00foreign flagship outside of US waters. So, Barry, what do we know about this vessel? Where was it headed
06:07and what was on board? Well, as far as we know, what is alleged is that that oil has been embargoed
06:16and it's not supposed to proceed. The Venezuelans are not taking President Trump's warnings seriously.
06:23He said the airspace also was closed over Venezuela. If you monitor the air traffic there,
06:29they're still flying. So, I think Trump right now is saying to the Venezuelans that you're not taking
06:35us seriously. So, he's starting to enforce the embargo and some of the rules that have been in
06:40place for a while. We can't forget that Maduro is a drug cartel leader overall. And at the end of
06:46the day, there's a bounty on him to get arrested, brought to the FBI, higher than it was for bin
06:52Laden. So, that should be a clue. Yeah. Colonel, final question to you about 45 seconds. I mean,
06:57what type of pressure does this put on Maduro with these vessels being seized? What does this do
07:03for him moving forward? Well, the seizure of the one vessel put some pressure on Maduro because the
07:11oil is so important for Venezuelan economy. The administration hopes that the regime will crack,
07:20but they've also threatened to seize additional tankers. They've noted there were six other
07:26embargoed or sanctioned tankers. And if there were a general blockade of Venezuelan
07:33oil, the Venezuelan economy would collapse. So, that's what the administration is threatening.
07:39It's hoping to have a regime change without further escalation. Yeah. Well, we'll keep
07:46following that. Colonel Mark Hansen and Barry Donatio, thank you so much, gentlemen. We appreciate you.
